Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State Prediction, Picks & Odds for CUSA Championship Tonight

It may sound wild, but the Conference USA champion still has a sliver of hope for the College Football Playoff. And yes, that means you shouldn’t rule out 9-3 Kennesaw State just yet. They’ll need an ACC upset, a surprise in the Sun Belt, and the Mountain West favorite taking care of business — unlikely, but not impossible.

Jacksonville State stands in the way, though their first win over the Owls benefited from a bizarre swing just before halftime. Counting on lightning to strike twice feels unlikely.

My Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville Statepredictions and college football picks will not jump into the fray of those Playoff possibilities, but a shootout should also favor the Owls’ more balanced offense at kickoff at 7 p.m. ET on Friday, December 5.

Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State predictions for the CUSA Championship

Who will win the CUSA Championship?

Jacksonville State won, 35-26, three weeks ago, but focus on the end of that first half. Driving in the final minute before halftime, Kennesaw State quarterback Amari Odom threw his second interception of the day. Three plays later, the Gamecocks scored a touchdown on an absurd Hail Mary, something that has somehow become a habit for the program in the last five years.

Without that swing, Kennesaw State very well may have overcome Odom’s atrocious day. Since then, he has thrown for nine touchdowns with no interceptions in two must-win games, averaging 11 yards per pass attempt while scoring two more touchdowns on the ground and adding 104 rushing yards.

The Owls are the better of these two teams, only viewed as comparable because of that particularly bad day. Bet on Kennesaw State’s slim chance at the Playoff as enough motivation to stay focused and exact revenge for that Nov. 15 defeat.

Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State best bet: Over 59.5 (-110)

Both these offenses prefer to run the ball rather than pass it, but Kennesaw State’s passing game has exploded in the last three weeks, putting together one of the best performances seen in the entire country last week against Liberty, averaging 0.649 expected points added (EPA) per dropback, per CFB-graphs.com .

That development has coincided with the Owls’ defense falling apart, a distinct liability in their last three games and notably struggling against the rush in all three games. Jacksonville State, in particular, rushed for 256 yards on 41 attempts, a 6.2 yards per carry average.

There is often an instinct to take an Under simply out of deference to run-first offenses, but when the run games work, run-first offenses are plenty capable of cashing an Over. With Kennesaw State’s recent defensive struggles, that capability becomes a bit of a likelihood.

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Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State same-game parlay

While Kennesaw State lost to Jacksonville State three weeks ago, that can largely be attributed to a terrible day from quarterback Amari Odom, who threw three interceptions in the 35-26 loss, eventually being benched. Yet, Odom threw for 248 yards in that truncated action, the first time of three straight games in which the Owls seemed to rely on sheer explosiveness to end the season.

Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State SGP

• Over 59.5

• Kennesaw State -2.5

• Amari Odom Over 249.5 Passing Yards

Our deep-ball SGP: Fireworks galore

Necessity is often the mother of innovation, and for Kennesaw State, that necessity coincided a bit with desperation, needing to keep winning to keep Conference USA title hopes alive amid a surprisingly tight race. That innovation and desperation led to receiver Gabriel Benyard catching multiple touchdown passes in three of the Owls’ last four games.

Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State SGP

• Over 59.5

• Kennesaw State -2.5

• Amari Odom Over 249.5 Passing Yards

• Gabriel Benyard 2+ Touchdowns

Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State game predictions

Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State spread prediction

Jacksonville State has home-field advantage because of that fluke head-to-head win. And yes, it was a fluke. That halftime sequence alone set up the Gamecocks for the win.

But that homefield advantage should not be enough to make up for Kennesaw State being the outright better team.

Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State Over/Under prediction

Kennesaw State has not only cashed three Overs in a row; those games have cleared bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 19.7 points per game.

Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State odds

• Spread: Kennesaw State -2.5 | Jacksonville State +2.5

• Moneyline: Kennesaw State -136 | Jacksonville State +116

• Over/Under: Over 59.5 | Under 59.5

Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State trend to know

Not only has Kennesaw State cashed three straight Overs and by an average of 19.7 points per game, but Jacksonville State has also cleared the total in three of its last four games — including that head-to-head matchup — and by an average of 5.25 points in those four games, even including the sole Under. Find more college football betting trends for Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State.

How to watch Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State

Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State latest injuries

Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State weather

Conditions at AmFirst Stadium should be chilly and mostly cloudy, with temperatures in the mid-40s °F during the early portion of the game, dipping toward the low-40s as it progresses. Winds look light to moderate, so wind chill will be noticeable but not brutal. There is a chance of showers developing later in the night, mainly after about 9–10 p.m., but much of the game should be played under dry, overcast skies with cool, dense air.

The cool temperatures and relatively calm winds favor the passing and kicking games, but the colder, denser air can slightly reduce ball carry, which may shave a yard or two off long kicks and deep throws. If those late showers arrive before the final whistle, ball security becomes a bigger issue: slick conditions tend to reward the team that protects the ball, leans on a secure ground game, and executes cleanly on special teams.

Fatigue can also be a factor in cooler weather, especially for players cramping less but tightening up if they’re standing on the sideline, so rotation depth and sideline warm-up routines could subtly influence who finishes stronger in the fourth quarter.

Monitor gametime conditions with our  College football weather info .

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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This article originally appeared on Covers.com , read the full article here