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The Kennesaw State Owls take on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders in Murfreesboro, Tennessee, on Wednesday, Oct. 28. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Middle Tennessee opened as a -2.5 favorite, but Kennesaw State has since flipped to -1.5, according to updated odds. The over/under sits at 49.5 total points, down from 50.5.
Here's my Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee predictionand college football pick for Wednesday, October 28.
Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee Pick: Under 51
My Middle Tennessee vs. Kennesaw State best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page .
Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee Spread: Kennesaw State -1.5, Middle Tennessee +1.5
Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee Over/Under: 50.5 Points
Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee Moneyline: Kennesaw State ML -113, Middle Tennessee ML -106
Kennesaw State accomplished the unthinkable last season, going from the worst team in CUSA to winning the league title. Head coach Jerry Mack did a magnificent job maximizing the talent of the Owls squad.
This year has seen the magic run out, as Kennesaw State hasn't picked up a victory since the season opener against FCS West Georgia.
The offense hasn't recaptured the success of last year's explosive passing attack, as the quarterback and receiver play has taken a big step back this year.
The defense has done well to keep the Owls in games at times, but the lack of situational execution has been felt.
Quarterback Rickie Collins is completing 69% of his passes while throwing for 1,426 yards, but he has just four touchdown passes this season. The Owls rank dead last nationally in passing explosiveness .
The Owls aren't taking deep shots, much less connecting on them.
Brayden Munroe and Javon Rogers are the leading receivers, each averaging just 50 receiving yards per game. No one else on the team is averaging more than 11 yards per catch this season.
Collins doubles as the Owls' leading rusher with 295 yards and five rushing scores, while Boogie Woods III has 291 rushing yards and four touchdowns.
The ground attack has averaged just 104 yards per game against FBS competition on 3.6 yards per carry. Kennesaw has to run the ball better without a consistent passing game, something we could see happen here against Middle Tennessee.
The Owls defense has not been great in any one area this season, but the unit is decent at most things. Kennesaw State grades out as the fourth-strongest tackling team in CUSA, with the second-most effective pass rush.
The coverage unit doesn't allow explosive pass plays, and the defense has forced opponents to be methodical while giving up only six passing touchdowns this season.
Middle Tennessee is finally starting to turn the corner under head coach Derek Mason, who at one point looked like he was on his way out of town given his team's performances in prior seasons.
MTSU was coming off a 55-0 blowout loss to Kansas , immediately following a 10-point road loss at Jacksonville State, where Mason was critical of the officiating and calls that went against the Blue Raiders.
Mason appeared to be grasping at straws, but the response from his group has been impressive. MTSU now sits at 4-3, with bowl eligibility clearly within reach.
The Blue Raider offense is scoring more points, and the results have been driven by quarterback Roman Gagliano, who has been exquisite this season.
The sophomore signal-caller has completed 59% this season while throwing for 1,404 yards with a 12:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Those numbers might not seem eye-popping, but they're a significant improvement over what MTSU has had over the last five years.
The offensive line has substantially elevated its play this season, as the Blue Raiders have allowed just seven sacks and 28 tackles for loss.
Activity behind the line of scrimmage was a problem last year, but the offensive line's play has made MTSU more balanced and opened up the run game.
Middle Tennessee has played fairly decent football in CUSA play, and the defense showed that at FIU . The Panthers went right down the field on the game's opening possession, but FIU would score only once more until the late stages of the fourth quarter.
The Blue Raiders have played pretty well against the pass this season while limiting explosive plays.
MTSU has shown some toughness on the defensive line over the last couple of weeks, so this defense should create issues for Kennesaw State.
This game opened with Middle Tennessee listed as a short 2.5-point favorite with a total between 49.5 and 51.5. I like the under at 51 or better.
Both Kennesaw State and MTSU rank in the top 35 nationally in preventing explosive plays on defense. These secondaries are great at taking away the opposition's primary receiving option and forcing underneath throws and checkdowns.
I'm not convinced this changes in this game, so we should see methodical passing on both sides.
Collins has made poor decisions this year once Kennesaw State crosses midfield as if he's pressing and playing tight. The team has really struggled in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on just 50% of trips against FBS competition.
Part of the equation is factoring in the head coaches' decision-making, and Mack has made puzzling decisions in both play-calling and fourth-down decisions over the last two weeks.
I could see a poor coaching decision directly costing Kennesaw State points in the red zone at least once here.
The Owls defense has played decent football and will create problems for MTSU in the red zone.
The Blue Raiders have a reliable field-goal operation with kicker Dominic Bourgeois, who has made 10-of-11 attempts this season. That's key because MTSU has settled for field goals in the red zone often.
I could see this one turning into a slower-paced defensive battle in which the winning team fails to score more than 24 points.
I want 51 or better, as this is a key number in the totals and has been a key number many times this season.
Pick: Under 51
