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Let’s Talk About Dubas and Penguins Prospects
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- Let’s Talk About Dubas and Penguins Prospects
IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas tried. The big trade to catapult the Penguins' rebuild forward by a few years never materialized, and the Penguins are essentially as they were, just a few months older and several prospects richer.
The seeds have been planted, but the harvest is a few years away. To continue the analogy, the Penguins have a bumper crop on the way but probably don't have a couple of stars to rely on, though that shouldn't slow the process.
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In blunt terms, the current group of prospects is much better than many Penguins fans realize, and much, much better than the persistent nattering nabobs of negativity who proffer the worst in every situation want to admit.
Procedurally, we know from reliable national reporting that the Penguins gained traction in their pursuit of Jason Robertson, but other teams were parting with such bombshell packages, including top-10 picks, and Dubas found his war chest wasn't big enough.
From a video released by the Ottawa Senators, we know that the Penguins offered a roster player for the 25th overall pick, which tempted Ottawa GM Steve Staois but wasn't enough to make him part with the pick acquired in the Brady Tkachuk trade.
Ultimately, the Penguins GM was all dressed up but had no place to go. Conversely, the army of prospects he fortified (and was ready to part with) consists of potentially inspired selections that created an enormous 13-member 2025 draft class, and those prospects are joining the existing youngsters and maturing quickly.
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Penguins fans have their sentimental choices for a slew of late-round dark horses who could one day wear the Penguins crest. From seventh-rounder Kale Dach to fifth-rounders Travis Hayes and Ryan Miller, to third-rounders Charlie Trethewey and goalie Gabriel D'Aigle, the talented '25 class is led by first-rounders Bill Zonnon and Will Horcoff.
Of course, 2025 11th overall selection Ben Kindel already has a Pittsburgh address.
This summer, Dubas was ready to trade prospects and picks for immediate help, but we all blinked, and, like everything else, the cost went up. Top players were suddenly worth four premium assets, including top-10 picks. However, unlike most of us, Dubas's forced inaction overflowed his coffers.
It's a real question what will happen in 2027-28 when the full force of the 2025 class has turned pro. There won't be enough pucks in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton for the totality of the Penguins' prospect pool. An unofficial count, not including current prospects Ville Koivunen, Rutger McGroarty, or Owen Pickering, shows as many as 22 prospects could be in the minor league system next year.
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That's more than an entire team, even before adding the necessary veterans.
After the Wheeling Nailers kerfuffle this offseason, it would be somewhat ironic to see the team need to partner with a second AHL or ECHL team to accommodate an overflow of players. But I digress.
After rolling through the top 20 Penguins prospects again this week, the Penguins cupboard has an interesting mix of potential impact players. There isn't yet a surefire top-line player, either center or wing, but no one knows just how far Horcoff and Zonnon can take their development. The same is true for Liam and Markus Ruck, who are also top-six players, if they reach their potential, presumably a year or two after Horcoff and Zonnon.
Those four, with Kindel, Egor Chinakhov , and presumably Koivunen with his contract that will extend into his 30s, represent the future forwards core, though an important note is that history teaches only half of them (excluding Kindel and Chinakhov) will make it, and mathematically, only one or two will truly reach their potential.
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On the blue line, Harrison Brunicke, Kaedan Korczak, and Pickering are the immediate youngsters, with Peyton Kettles, Brady Peddle, and Charlie Trethewey among the next wave potentially knocking on the NHL door in two years, at the earliest.
The second wave of prospects is expected to begin trickling into the NHL in 2027-28, with more appearing sometime in 2029.
History also suggests that only a couple of the defense prospects will make it, and that development can seem to take forever. At 25, Korczak has shown he can play in the NHL, but the rest have a bumpy road ahead, even Brunicke, who looks more ready than any Penguins rookie blue liner since John Marino in 2020.
Recall many moons ago, that even Kris Letang's development went sideways a couple of times before he staked his full-time, unquestioned role in the lineup in 2009-10, four years after being drafted (He played a full season in 2007-08, but was sent to Wilkes-Barre for a 10-game spell. He was also a healthy scratch for several games in February 2009).
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Taking it all into account, the Penguins are likely to make several big moves in the next 12 months. Veterans out the door. More young players in. Perhaps even more prospects and picks on the way, too.
But to have youth in the lineup, a team must first go through the growing pains, fits and starts, and even disappointments. And it seems the Penguins are delaying the push to avoid those disappointments, potentially becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
In the immediate, PHN questions Dubas's apparent reluctance to embrace his own youth movement. Signing 30-year-old Andrei Kumenko on July 1 seems even more out of place in the shadow of Koivunen's eight-year deal. Kuzmenko and Evgeni Malkin will occupy two of the six winger spots in the top nine, despite neither being likely to be with the team in 2027-28.
The addition of veterans leaves the 25-and-under players Nick Robertson, Hendrix Lapierre, Elmer Soderblom, McGroarty, Koivunen, and Avery Hayes all fighting for just one singular spot in the top nine and one spot on the defensively oriented fourth line. Joining that fight will also be veteran Justin Brazeau, who scored 18 goals last season.
Perhaps the nuanced argument that Malkin wasn't blocking anyone in particular but was still blocking someone now makes more sense. And it would be quite the look to demote Koivunen and his $32 million deal to WBS, wouldn't it?
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The Penguins' waiver wire could be fruitful for teams at the top of the list. And so, just a few weeks before the start of training camp, Dubas's work remains both exemplary in creating a tidal wave of talent on the way, with most arriving in 24 months, and curious, rising to the level of confusion, that he's blocked the first wave of that talent in the next few weeks.
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