Story by
Making Claims: How To Make Changing The Belmont Stakes Distance A Win For Everyone
- Story by
- Making Claims: How To Make Changing The Belmont Stakes Distance A Win For Everyone
This is a free preview of a commentary which was originally posted on the Paulick Report Insider Patreon feed on Sept. 8.
The Paulick Report Insider Patreon is a reader-supported feed that provides exclusive commentaries, interviews, and behind-the-scenes looks at the Thoroughbred industry's most important and interesting topics for monthly and annual subscribers. If you want to support our publication, or if you want even more content from the Paulick Report staff, click here to become an insider.
Advertisement
If you were out on a boat, over a grill, catching up with friends, sleeping in, or driving from Michigan to Kentucky like I was on Labor Day, you might have missed the news that NYRA is seriously considering permanently shortening the Belmont Stakes from 1 1/2 miles to 1 1/4 miles.
The reasoning from NYRA CEO Dave O'Rourke had a lot to do with the intent of breeders, who he (rightfully) says are not breeding for the 1 1/2-mile distance. It should also be a popular move among trainers. During my recent piece asking some conditioners whether they'd pursue the Triple Crown or Thoroughbred Championship Series with a Kentucky Derby winner, Mark Casse went out of his way to note that he'd support keeping the Belmont Stakes at the classic distance that it was contested at during the race's time at Saratoga Race Course.
Personally, I'm of the mind that all-time greatness is supposed to be all-time difficult. There are only 13 Triple Crown winners since 1919, and I bet you can name most, if not all of them off the top of your head. It's not an accomplishment that's meant to be claimed every year, and the near-misses are part of what builds the legend. American Pharoah doesn't matter without the pain we felt with Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, Charismatic, and the others that made us believe. Anything less cheapens the one thing this sport has inarguably gotten right over the past century.
But, I realize this is an increasingly unpopular opinion, and the Triple Crown is going to look very different five years from now from what I knew to be true five years ago.
Advertisement
So, if we're going to hell, let's dive in head-first. I have an idea to add an element of intrigue to the Belmont Stakes that will make every race around it matter much more.
As we know, the only horse that truly matters in the Belmont Stakes is the one vying for the Triple Crown, and whether they're aiming for that historic achievement or a chokehold on the Thoroughbred Championship Series, they'll have to win the Kentucky Derby first. By the time the horses are galloping back at Churchill Downs, we know who the star of the Belmont Stakes is likely to be.
So, let's let them choose their own adventure on the road from Louisville to New York.
The porch above the Kentucky Derby winner's circle is one of the most visible places in the sport, and the key decision-makers tied to that horse are gathered together in that one place. Every owner, trainer, agent, consultant, and hanger-on that would have a hand in deciding the winner's next starts would presumably be on that stage.
Advertisement
So, what I propose is, once the Kentucky Derby trophy is handed out and the key players give out their thoughts and thanks, the cameras keep rolling, and a blinking red "Deal or No Deal"-style button is presented to them. It can be a lever, switch, or any other device used to make a binary decision, but it must be large and symbolic, and the decision it provides must be clear to all.
This button will decide the conditions of the Belmont Stakes. If they don't press the button, the race will be held over the traditional 1 1/2 miles over Belmont Park's main track, and we go on with life as we've known it.
However, if the winning connections press the button, the Belmont Stakes will be held at the 1 1/4 miles that trainers and breeders have been clamoring for – but, the race will be contested over turf.
It's all in the hands of the connections. If they want to mess with the formula, they have to look America in the eyes and say it with their full chest, then reckon with the consequences of their decisions, both in terms of justifying their decision to duck tradition, and of trading their desired classic distance for a new surface and a new set of challengers.
Advertisement
But, isn't it unfair to the connections to force their hand into a decision when the trainer hasn't even had a chance to look at their horse cooling out? Perhaps, but any trainer worth their salt knows what they've got in terms of their star horse and their preferred distance/surface, and the five weeks between the Derby and Belmont isn't going to change that. If the horse is not fit to run in the Belmont after the Derby, it doesn't matter whether they press the button or not anyway.
Ratings and general interest for the Belmont tends to sag if the Derby winner doesn't make the race, whether they'd have been up for the Triple Crown or not, so the Derby winner's decision would be a win-win for NYRA even if they don't end up making the gate. If you're not going to get the star of the show, NYRA either has the cadre of Kentucky Derby alumni (presumably all the Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown horses that skipped the Preakness) to market on, or they choose the turf option and don't show up, it's not like there's much further down to go with a fresh set of contenders.
Furthermore, the immediacy of the decision is a measure of fairness to the competition and NYRA. If we gave the Derby winner a week to collect themselves before presenting the button to press or not press, they hold an unfair advantage of knowing whether they're training for a dirt race or turf race. Deciding in the Kentucky Derby winner's circle gives everyone a level playing field in terms of setting up their late spring campaign. NYRA, meanwhile, has a race to promote and recruit for, and they'll need every second they can to play the bounce of that decision.
And, think of the ratings. All of a sudden, viewers will be incentivized to stick around after the race to see what the owners decide, and that decision would create all sorts of social media content to further extend horse racing's footprint in the general news cycle. That's the kind of thing that would give horse racing an extra 30 seconds on the evening news beyond just "Horse ABC won the Kentucky Derby. Here's the stretch run. Let's throw it over to the weatherman."
Advertisement
This is the kind of accountability the sport needs. Is cheapening the Triple Crown worth the risk of facing a fresh platoon of Aidan O'Brien's finest over the turf at Belmont Park? Is running a quarter mile shorter worth the risk to your top-shelf stallion prospect's stock in a North American breeding industry that still discounts turf form? Are you prepared to answer to fans and the media why you chose to take a path different from the pillars of the sport to hoist your trophy?
Or, perhaps it's a shrewd act of gamesmanship. If your Kentucky Derby winner is an Animal Kingdom-type whose true potential is on the grass, choosing the turf route could put you in a better position to clinch one or both of the sophomore series. And, if that's why you're doing it, then explaining it to the world should be simple.
The blood of the Triple Crown is already on our hands. If we're going to go off the beaten path, we might as well get everything out of it we can. This is the kind of idea that would add levels of intrigue and strategy to both 3-year-old series, thus adding value to them, whichever direction the Derby winner chooses.
So, Deal or No Deal?
This story was originally published by Paulick Report on Sep 21, 2026, where it first appeared in the News section. Add Paulick Report as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
