March Madness bracket projection: Which teams could fight for No. 1 seed?

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March Madness bracket projection: Which teams could fight for No. 1 seed?

March Madness Sweet 16 games ranked as men's NCAA Tournament nears Final Four — Connecticut forward Alex Karaban reacts to a play during his team's game against St. John's at PeoplesBank Arena in Hartford.

John Leuzzi, USA TODAY NETWORK · USA TODAY Sports

Mon, Mar 2, 2026 ·

6 min read

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The anticipation and build-up for March Madness continues to grow with just under two weeks until Selection Sunday arrives. In the meantime, however, a few bracket pieces need to be settled.

In addition to who might make it into the 68-team field off the bubble, one of the more frequent topics of discussion heading into the final week of the regular season (yes, some mid-major tournaments get underway this week) is who will join Duke , Arizona and Michigan on the 1-seed line.

One game that could decide that takes place in Tucson, Arizona at the McKale Memorial Center between No. 2 Arizona and No. 5 Iowa State at 9 p.m. ET.

REQUIRED READING: March Madness predictions: 13 teams who can win men's tournament

The Cyclones, led by a big three of Milan Momcilovic, Joshua Jefferson and Tamin Lipsey, are one of several teams who remain in the mix for the 1-seed line, despite their recent losses to BYU and Texas Tech setting their chances back a bit for their first 1-seed in program history.

But with time starting to run out, Iowa State isn't the only team looking for that final 1-seed spot.

Here's a look at USA TODAY Sports ' predictions for which teams can challenge for the final spot on the 1-seed line for the NCAA Tournament:

March Madness bracket projections: Who could be final No. 1 seed?

UConn

NET ranking:No. 9
Quad 1 record:8-2

UConn kept its chances of keeping its spot on the 1-seed line intact — if not bolstered — with its colossal win over St. John's last Wednesday, where the Huskies defense looked to be back on track after leaking some oil in recent weeks.

The Huskies have an impressive 8-2 Quad 1 record despite not having many opportunities to get those wins in the Big East, which has been down this year compared to past seasons. They hold wins over projected NCAA Tournament teams in BYU, Illinois, Florida , Texas and Kansas in the non-conference schedule, with the latter coming on the road at Allen Fieldhouse, which is known to be one of college basketball's toughest environments.

UConn is looking for its third national title under Dan Hurley in the last four NCAA Tournaments, and man, they really could pull it off with this roster of Alex Karaban, Tarris Reed Jr., Silas Demary, Braylon Mullens and Solo Ball.

Florida

NET ranking:No. 4
Quad 1 record:11-5

A No. 1 seed looked out of reach for the Gators after not picking up a ranked win in non-conference play, and then again when they lost by nine points to unranked Auburn, which now finds itself on the bubble and a First Four candidate. However, that loss to the Tigers seemed to be a catalyst for Todd Golden's squad, as they've won 10 consecutive games, with three coming against ranked opponents in Alabama, Kentucky and Arkansas.

To find itself on the 1-line, Florida will likely still have to win the entire SEC tournament, even with a strong No. 4 NET ranking and the third most Quad 1 wins in the country at nine.

Purdue

NET ranking:No. 8
Quad 1 record:8-5

Purdue entered the week seen as one of the closest competitors to UConn for the final 1-seed, according to Bart Torvik's TourneyCast. The statistical website had the Boilermakers with a 13.4% chance of getting the 1-seed and a 100% chance of the 2-seed entering Sunday.

However, after a 0-2 week against Michigan State and Ohio State, the latter of which was on the bubble, the Boilermakers' chances and case for the 1-seed now hang in limbo. Their eight Quad 1 wins are tied for the fifth most in the country.

Purdue, led by Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn, has an opportunity to salvage its underwhelming week against Wisconsin at home to end the regular season next Sunday. Should the Boilermakers beat the Badgers and make a run in the Big Ten tournament, they could find themselves back in there with giving UConn a run for its money at the 1-seed.

Illinois

NET ranking:No. 5
Quad 1 record:8-5

Illinois hasn't been seeded on the 1-seed line since the 2021 NCAA Tournament. That streak will likely extend this year, though its NET ranking may suggest that it should be right there on the 1-seed line.

The main reason for this is straightforward: the Illini have not helped their case in recent weeks. Since starting 20-3, Illinois has gone 2-4 in its last six games, which features three overtime losses to Michigan State, Wisconsin and UCLA, the latter of the three whom are sitting on the bubble. Though it was by no means a "bad loss" in terms of its impact on its NCAA Tournament resume, Illinois' case was most recently set back by a home loss to Michigan on Friday.

If the Illini were able to pick up a Quad 1 or Quad 2 win or two (or a few) in this recent stretch, their case would be looking a lot better heading into the Big Ten tournament. But alas, Bart Torvik's TourneyCast has Illinois with a 10.8% chance of getting a 1-seed (as of Thursday, Feb. 26).

Iowa State

NET ranking:No. 8
Quad 1 record:6-4

Iowa State looked to have the metrics — led by its top-8 NET ranking — to snag up the final 1-seed when it was put ahead of UConn by the NCAA selection committee in their first in-season top 16 NCAA Tournament seeds on Saturday, Feb. 21.

The 1-seed now looks to be out of the picture for the Cyclones following their recent losses to BYU and Texas Tech. The games against the Cougars and Red Raiders would have been beneficial wins for the Cyclones, as they both were considered Quad 1 opportunities. Iowa State has just six Quad 1 wins going into the final week of the regular season, which is the fewest among teams ranked in the top 10 of the NET rankings.

Bart Torvik's TourneyCast has Iowa State with a 3.1% chance of getting a 1-seed (as of Sunday, March 1). Therefore, it's safe to say that Iowa State's chances of salvaging its chances at the 1-seed really rely on how Monday's game vs. Arizona goes.

Houston

NET ranking:No. 10
Quad 1 record:7-5

Houston is holding onto contention for the final 1-seed by the skin of their teeth. The Cougars' recent three-game losing skid put quite the damper on their chances of getting a spot on the 1-seed line, and they don't have many opportunities before the Big 12 tournament to salvage it.

Bart Torvik's TourneyCast has Houston with a 7.5% chance of getting a 1-seed (as of Sunday, March 1).