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March Madness bubble watch one day before bracket is unveiled
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- March Madness bubble watch one day before bracket is unveiled
We are one day from the 2026 NCAA Tournament being revealed , and there is still uncertainty when it comes to the bubble.
Conference tournament week is the final chance for teams to prove they belong in March Madness, and for the most part, squads weren't taking advantage of the opportunities. But everything got flipped upside down when Miami (Ohio) suffered its first loss of the season so it won't get an automatic bid. Now the bubble picture has a new member, making it a much more complicated race for the final spots in the brackets.
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Most teams are done and will have to wait until the bracket announcement, but there are a few still playing looking to strengthen their case − and possibly secure automatic spots to make it an even crazier race. Here is a look at the March Madness bubble in the latest USA TODAY Sports Bracketology .
March Madness automatic bids: Who is in NCAA Tournament bracket?
Texas
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Record: 18-14 (9-9)
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NET Ranking: 42
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Quad 1 record: 6-9
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Projected seed:No. 11
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Quality wins: at Alabama, vs. Vanderbilt
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Bad losses: vs. Arizona State (neutral), Mississippi State, vs. Mississippi (neutral)
You never want to go into Selection Sunday on a losing streak, and Texas is learning how uncomfortable it can make the situation. Losing the last two games of the regular season wasn't the worst thing in the world, but falling to conference cellar dweller Mississippi in your first conference tournament game is. Texas has the best chance to make the field out of the rest of the bubble, but that doesn't mean it will avoid playing in the First Four.
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Santa Clara
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Record: 26-8 (15-3)
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NET Ranking: 40
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Quad 1 record: 2-6
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Projected seed:No. 11 (first four)
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Quality wins: vs. Saint Mary's (twice)
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Bad losses: vs. Loyola Chicago (neutral), vs. Arizona State (neutral)
The West Coast Conference is looking like a three-bid league thanks to Santa Clara doing as much as it could without winning the tournament title. The Broncos needed to make the championship game to feel confident about moving up and they did that with a second win over Saint Mary's. Santa Clara had a chance to beat Gonzaga but it was an impressive showing that put it in a comfortable spot as the most of the conference tournaments began.
VCU
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Record: 25-7 (15-3)
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NET Ranking: 44
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Quad 1 record: 2-5
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Projected seed:No. 11 (first four)
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Quality wins: vs. South Florida (neutral)
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Bad losses: at George Mason
A team that has a chance to flip the bubble around, VCU is still in the hunt for an automatic bid by advancing to the Atlantic 10 semifinal. Given the resume doesn't have any real strong wins, the Rams are far from done and will want to at least make the conference title game to position themselves in a not-so dangerous position. There will be lots of squads tuning in to this team.
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SMU
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Record: 20-13 (8-10)
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NET Ranking: 37
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Quad 1 record: 4-10
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Projected seed:No. 11 (first four)
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Quality wins: vs. North Carolina, vs. Louisville
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Bad losses: vs. LSU (neutral), at California, at Syracuse, at Florida State
No team may have played its way out of the tournament like SMU. After looking like they were safe all season, the Mustangs ended the regular season on a rather ugly four-game losing streak. SMU needed a few wins in the ACC tournament to wash out that bad taste, but it only beat Syracuse before a dismal ending resulted in a loss to Louisville. It not only has 13 losses but there are some tough defeats sprinkled in, making for a much more stressful Selection Sunday than what was thought a few weeks ago.
Miami Ohio
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Record: 31-1 (18-0)
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NET Ranking: 64
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Quad 1 record: 0-0
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Projected seed:No. 11 (first four)
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Quality wins: vs. Akron
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Bad losses: vs. Massachusetts (neutral)
Everything changed when Miami (Ohio) lost its first game. Not only was it a defeat, it came in the first game of the MAC tournament against eighth-place Massachusetts, barely qualifying as a Quad 3 loss. The record speaks for itself but the resume leaves plenty to be desired, especially with the NET ranking dropping 10 spots after the loss. There are plenty of arguments for why this team should or shouldn't be in and they're all valid. The entire bubble hinges on whether the RedHawks make it in or not.
Miami RedHawks guard Peter Suder (5) reacts to a turnover in the second half of Mid-American Conference Tournament first round game between the Miami RedHawks and the UMass Minutemen at Rocket Arena in Cleveland on Thursday, March 12, 2026.
New Mexico
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Record: 23-10 (13-7)
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NET Ranking: 45
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Quad 1 record: 2-7
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Projected seed:First four out
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Quality wins: at Virginia Commonwealth, vs. Santa Clara
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Bad losses: at New Mexico State, vs. Colorado State
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If you're going to get a second chance at life, better not waste it. New Mexico was gifted another shot thanks to some other teams faltering, but it needed to make some real noise at the Mountain West tournament to really take advantage of it. Unfortunately, the Lobos couldn't capitalize, losing to San Diego State on a heart-breaking last second shot in the semifinals. It makes the path to a bid tough, and New Mexico will root for Utah State in the title game so the Aztecs don't steal a bid.
Oklahoma
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Record: 19-15 (7-11)
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NET Ranking: 47
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Quad 1 record: 4-9
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Projected seed:First four out
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Quality wins: at Vanderbilt, at Texas
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Bad losses: vs. Arizona State (neutral), at Mississippi State, at South Carolina
When bubble teams struggled, Oklahoma took advantage by winning the last four of the regular season. It kept the momentum going in the SEC tournament with two major wins to advance to the quarterfinals, where it fell to Arkansas. While it was a valiant effort, a win was really needed to move up the bubble, so it's looking like it will be a tough Sunday for the Sooners.
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Auburn
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Record: 17-16 (7-11)
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NET Ranking: 39
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Quad 1 record: 4-13
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Projected seed:First four out
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Quality wins: vs. St John's (neutral), vs. Arkansas, at Florida
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Bad losses: vs. Mississippi, at Mississippi State
The most perplexing record in the conversation. Auburn only beat Mississippi State in the SEC tournament, unable to get another signature win to help its case. The Tigers have great wins, but 16 losses would be the most for an at-large team and it's hard to justify, no matter the schedule. This will be the team everyone will be wondering about when the bracket comes out.
Indiana
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Record: 18-14 (9-11)
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NET Ranking: 41
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Quad 1 record: 3-10
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Projected seed:First four out
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Quality wins: vs. Purdue, at UCLA, vs. Wisconsin
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Bad losses: at Minnesota, at USC, vs. Northwestern (twice)
After ending the season with 1-5 mark in the last six games, the Hoosiers needed a strong showing in the Big Ten tournament to make a case. Instead, they were one-and-done, suffering another excruciating defeat to Northwestern. That will extend the tournament drought to three years.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness bubble watch one day before tournament bracket is set
