March Madness predictions: One of these teams will win NCAA Tournament
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March Madness predictions: One of these teams will win NCAA Tournament
Austin Curtright, USA TODAY NETWORK·USA TODAY Sports
·
6 min read
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Based on recentNCAA tournamenttrends, only a few teams are likely true national championship contenders onceMarch Madnessofficially gets underway.
Seven of the last eight national champions were No. 1 seeds, withConnecticutthe lone exception as a No. 4 seed in 2023. The Huskies were also a bit more talented than their seed displayed, especially as they repeated as national champions the following season.
Moreover, 18 of the last 25 national champions since 2000 have been No. 1 seeds. The last team higher than a No. 4 seed to win the national championship was alsoUConnin 2014, meaning the Huskies hold both spots as the highest-seeded teams to win a title since 2000.
Three No. 3 seeds have won national titles since 2000, and one No. 2 seed has won during that time.
Suffice to say, if a team dominates the regular season, it's a good predictor of national championship odds. Here's a look at the nine teams that can win a national championship in 2026 based on seeding trends:
2026: Michigan Wolverines
(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)
2025: Florida Gators
(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)
2024: Connecticut Huskies
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
2023: Connecticut Huskies
(Troy Taormina, USA TODAY Sports)
2022: Kansas Jayhawks
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
2021: Baylor Bears
(Grace Hollars, IndyStar)
2019: Virginia Cavaliers
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
2018: Villanova Wildcats
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
2017: North Carolina Tar Heels
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
2016: Villanova Wildcats
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
2015: Duke Blue Devils
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
2014: Connecticut Huskies
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
2013: Louisville Cardinals (title later vacated)
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
2012: Kentucky Wildcats
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
2011: Connecticut Huskies
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
2010: Duke Blue Devils
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
2009: North Carolina Tar Heels
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
2008: Kansas Jayhawks
(Jerry Lai, USA TODAY Sports)
2007: Florida Gators
(H. Darr Beiser, USA TODAY Sports)
2006: Florida Gators
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
2005: North Carolina Tar Heels
(H. Darr Beiser, USA TODAY Sports)
2004: Connecticut Huskies
(H. Darr Beiser, USA TODAY Sports)
2003: Syracuse Orangemen
(H. Darr Beiser, USA TODAY Sports)
2002: Maryland Terrapins
(MICHAEL A. SCHWARZ, USA TODAY Sports)
2001: Duke Blue Devils
(JACK GRUBER, USA TODAY Sports)
2000: Michigan State Spartans
(ROBERT DEUTSCH, USA TODAY Sports)
1999: Connecticut Huskies
(EILEEN BLASS, USA TODAY Sports)
1998: Kentucky Wildcats
(ROBERT DEUTSCH, USA TODAY Sports)
1997: Arizona Wildcats
(H. DARR BEISER, USA TODAY Sports)
1996: Kentucky Wildcats
(Doug Pensinger, Getty Images)
1995: UCLA Bruins
(RVR Photos, USA TODAY Sports)
1994: Arkansas Razorbacks
(Doug Pensinger, Getty Images)
1993: North Carolina Tar Heels
(Doug Pensinger, Getty Images)
1992: Duke Blue Devils
(Jonathan Daniel, Getty Images)
1991: Duke Blue Devils
(Getty Images)
1990: UNLV Runnin' Rebels
(Ken Levine, Getty Images)
1989: Michigan Wolverines
(Getty Images)
1988: Kansas Jayhawks
(ROBERT DEUTSCH, USA TODAY Sports)
1987: Indiana Hoosiers
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1986: Louisville Cardinals
(The Courier-Journal)
1985: Villanova Wildcats
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1984: Georgetown Hoyas
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1983: North Carolina State Wolfpack
(Getty Images)
1982: North Carolina Tar Heels
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1981: Indiana Hoosiers
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1980: Louisville Cardinals
(The Courier-Journal)
1979: Michigan State Spartans
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1978: Kentucky Wildcats
(Malcolm Emmons, US PRESSWIRE)
1977: Marquette
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1976: Indiana Hoosiers
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1975: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1974: North Carolina State Wolfpack
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1973: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1972: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1971: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1970: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, US PRESSWIRE)
1969: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1968: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1967: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1966: Texas Western Miners
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1965: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1964: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1963: Loyola Ramblers
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1961: Cincinnati Bearcats
(Malcolm Emmons, US PRESSWIRE)
1960: Ohio State Buckeyes
(Bill Foley, Columbus Dispatch)
1/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2026: Michigan Wolverines
(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)
1/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2026: Michigan Wolverines
(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)
2/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2025: Florida Gators
(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)
3/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2024: Connecticut Huskies
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
4/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2023: Connecticut Huskies
(Troy Taormina, USA TODAY Sports)
5/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2022: Kansas Jayhawks
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
6/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2021: Baylor Bears
(Grace Hollars, IndyStar)
7/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2019: Virginia Cavaliers
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
8/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2018: Villanova Wildcats
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
9/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2017: North Carolina Tar Heels
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
10/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2016: Villanova Wildcats
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
11/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2015: Duke Blue Devils
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
12/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2014: Connecticut Huskies
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
13/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2013: Louisville Cardinals (title later vacated)
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
14/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2012: Kentucky Wildcats
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
15/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2011: Connecticut Huskies
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
16/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2010: Duke Blue Devils
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
17/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2009: North Carolina Tar Heels
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
18/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2008: Kansas Jayhawks
(Jerry Lai, USA TODAY Sports)
19/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2007: Florida Gators
(H. Darr Beiser, USA TODAY Sports)
20/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2006: Florida Gators
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
21/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2005: North Carolina Tar Heels
(H. Darr Beiser, USA TODAY Sports)
22/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2004: Connecticut Huskies
(H. Darr Beiser, USA TODAY Sports)
23/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2003: Syracuse Orangemen
(H. Darr Beiser, USA TODAY Sports)
24/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2002: Maryland Terrapins
(MICHAEL A. SCHWARZ, USA TODAY Sports)
25/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2001: Duke Blue Devils
(JACK GRUBER, USA TODAY Sports)
26/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2000: Michigan State Spartans
(ROBERT DEUTSCH, USA TODAY Sports)
27/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1999: Connecticut Huskies
(EILEEN BLASS, USA TODAY Sports)
28/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1998: Kentucky Wildcats
(ROBERT DEUTSCH, USA TODAY Sports)
29/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1997: Arizona Wildcats
(H. DARR BEISER, USA TODAY Sports)
30/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1996: Kentucky Wildcats
(Doug Pensinger, Getty Images)
31/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1995: UCLA Bruins
(RVR Photos, USA TODAY Sports)
32/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1994: Arkansas Razorbacks
(Doug Pensinger, Getty Images)
33/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1993: North Carolina Tar Heels
(Doug Pensinger, Getty Images)
34/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1992: Duke Blue Devils
(Jonathan Daniel, Getty Images)
35/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1991: Duke Blue Devils
(Getty Images)
36/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1990: UNLV Runnin' Rebels
(Ken Levine, Getty Images)
37/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1989: Michigan Wolverines
(Getty Images)
38/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1988: Kansas Jayhawks
(ROBERT DEUTSCH, USA TODAY Sports)
39/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1987: Indiana Hoosiers
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
40/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1986: Louisville Cardinals
(The Courier-Journal)
41/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1985: Villanova Wildcats
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
42/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1984: Georgetown Hoyas
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
43/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1983: North Carolina State Wolfpack
(Getty Images)
44/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1982: North Carolina Tar Heels
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
45/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1981: Indiana Hoosiers
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
46/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1980: Louisville Cardinals
(The Courier-Journal)
47/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1979: Michigan State Spartans
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
48/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1978: Kentucky Wildcats
(Malcolm Emmons, US PRESSWIRE)
49/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1977: Marquette
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
50/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1976: Indiana Hoosiers
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
51/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1975: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
52/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1974: North Carolina State Wolfpack
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
53/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1973: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
54/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1972: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
55/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1971: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
56/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1970: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, US PRESSWIRE)
57/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1969: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
58/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1968: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
59/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1967: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
60/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1966: Texas Western Miners
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
61/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1965: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
62/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1964: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
63/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1963: Loyola Ramblers
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
64/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1961: Cincinnati Bearcats
(Malcolm Emmons, US PRESSWIRE)
65/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
Duke, the No. 1 overall seed inUSA TODAY Sports' bracket projections,has been a wagon this season. Led by true freshmanCameron Boozer, one of the top national player of the year candidates, the Blue Devils finished 29-2 in the regular season with a long list of impressive wins over fellow projected 1-seeds inMichiganandFlorida; 2-seed Michigan State; 4-seedsKansasandVirginia; and 6-seedNorth Carolina(twice).
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Duke ranks No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 5 in adjusted offensive efficiency,per KenPom,and is likely the national championship front runner right now.
Arizona is a lock for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament alongside Duke, Michigan and Florida. All the Wildcats did this season was dominate one of the best conferences in college basketball.
Arizona finished the season with a 29-2 record, including a 16-2 mark in Big 12 play. The Wildcats lost back-to-back games to Kansas and Texas Tech in February, but won every other game otherwise, including wins over Iowa State, Kansas,Houston,Alabama, UConn and Florida.
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Arizona ranks No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 7 in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. It also ranks No. 15 in strength of schedule.
Another lock for a No. 1 seed, Michigan also dominated the regular season. The Wolverines suffered one loss in Big Ten play, which came toWisconsinearly in the season before they ran the table in the conference, only losing again to Duke in a neutral site game in February.
Michigan has the tools to win a national title and forms a big three alongside Duke and Arizona as the top contenders for the national title, with Florida likely right behind.
Defending national champion Florida was 9-5 at one point this season after dropping its SEC opener toMissouri. That followed nonconference losses to UConn, Duke, Arizona and TCU. But then something clicked for theGators, and they went on to win 16 of their last 17 games to end the regular season, looking like one of the top national title contenders once again.
Led by a trio of returners from last season's national championship team inThomas Haugh,Alex CondonandRueben Chinyelu, Florida boasts one of the strongest frontcourts in college basketball. The Gators are the current front runners to earn the last No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, which puts them easily in national title contention, especially with their run to end the regular season.
Florida ranks fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, which coincidentally is only behind the three teams ahead of it on this list.
UConn has proven capable in the past of winning a national championship from a variety of different seeding spots in the NCAA tournament. The Huskies are shaping up to be a No. 2 seed in 2026, though, putting them near the very top of national title contenders.
UConn's upset loss to Marquette to end the regular season might have cost its chance at a No. 1 seed, but coach Dan Hurley's squad has the potential to win the school's third title in four seasons. The Huskies lack a go-to scorer, but have a trio of veterans inSolo Ball,Tarris Reed Jr.andAlex Karaban, along with projected NBA lottery pickBraylon Mullinsand Georgia transferSilas Demary Jr.that makes one of the best starting lineups in college basketball.
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UConn was a No. 8 seed last season and still nearly took down eventual national champion Florida in the second round of March Madness.
Michigan State coach Tom Izzo has one of his better squads in recent years, led by standout guardJeremy Fears Jr., who leads the Big Ten in assists per game (9.1) this season.
The Spartans last won a national title in 2000, although they were runners-up in 2009. They've also reached three Final Fours since 2010. Michigan State is projected as a No. 2 seed in USA TODAY Sports' projections.
Houston returned three starters from its runners-up squad a season ago, and replaced the players it lost with a pair of five-star true freshman, includingKingston Flemings, a projected top-five pick in the upcoming NBA draft.
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Flemings raised theCougars' offensive ceiling this season, pacing the team with 16.5 points and 6.4 assists per game. They also have their typical strong defense, which ranks No. 6 nationally, per KenPom.
Coach Kelvin Sampson is one of the best coaches to never win a national title, and he has led Houston agonizingly close in recent years. Maybe the Cougars get over the hump in 2026 as a projected No. 2 seed, per USA TODAY Sports.
Three No. 3 seeds have won the national championship since 2003, and Gonzaga is projected to be on the No. 3 line in 2026, per USA TODAY Sports. The Bulldogs have one of the best frontcourts in college basketball withGraham IkeandBraden Huff, and will be a tough out if they can get strong play from their backcourt or get hot from 3-point range.
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Gonzaga has one of the best coaches in the sport in Mark Few and have been runners-up for the national championship in both 2017 and 2021. It also has the defense to make a run, which ranks ninth, per KenPom.
Never count out the Jayhawks and coach Bill Self in March Madness, especially with one of the best scorers in college basketball on their roster.
True freshmanDarryn Petersonhas been healthy as of late, playing 29 or more minutes in all five of Kansas' final games of the regular season. His availability raises Kansas' ceiling tremendously in the NCAA tournament.
Kansas also has a strong defense, led by Big 12 Defensive Player of the YearFlory Bidunga. Kansas, also led by veteran guardsTre Whiteand Melvin Council Jr., has a team capable of winning a national championship when Peterson is at his best.
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Kansas is projected to be a No. 4 seed by USA TODAY Sports, and one No. 4 seed has won a national title since 2000 (UConn in 2023).
