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March Madness teams rising, falling in NCAA Tournament bracket predictions
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- March Madness teams rising, falling in NCAA Tournament bracket predictions
The 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket will be revealed in less than a week, and there is still plenty of shifting happening before teams find out where they will be seeded in the Big Dance — or in it at all.
The conclusion of the regular season highlighted how drastic fortunes can change heading into March Madness . Get hot, and you can soar up the seed line and away from the bubble , while others are dropping toward unfavorable spots and at risk of missing out on the tournament.
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Now, the chance to improve stock is limited in championship week, heightening the importance of having a big showing to get in the good graces of the selection committee. Here are the teams rising and falling based on the final games of the regular season and the latest USA TODAY Sports Bracketology as conference tournaments begin.
March Madness teams rising
Florida
Florida Gators guard Boogie Fland (0) celebrates after scoring a three point basket during the first half against the Kentucky Wildcats at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center.
Current projected seed: No. 1 seed (South)
There may be no team more dangerous than the defending national champions, which has ascended to becoming a top seed for the second straight year. The Gators finished the regular season with 11 straight wins. What's impressive is all but two of them were double-digit wins and seven of them were Quad 1 games. Florida had been neck-and-neck with Connecticut for the last No. 1 seed, and the Huskies losing to Marquette opened the door for the Gators to claim the inside track to Selection Sunday, on a warpath to keep its crown.
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Michigan State
Current projected seed: No. 2 (East)
While the No. 1 seeds seem virtually locked up, it's a fight for the No. 2 spot. However, Michigan State is separating itself and assuring it gets the seed for the second straight season. The Spartans won five consecutive games, including a major victory at Purdue and picking up another road victory at Indiana. A win over Michigan would have been the perfect ending, but they put up a worthy fight in the loss to keep the good times going.
Wisconsin
Current projected seed: No. 6 (South)
Hot shooting has pushed Wisconsin onward. The Badgers have responded correctly from the head-scratching performance against Oregon with three wins to close the regular season; it started with a Quad 1 win at Washington and ended with another huge result at Purdue. Wisconsin is in a better position than what it was in a month ago, going all the way from a No. 9 seed to now in position for a sixth. If it can keep the momentum rolling, it can find itself moving up another seed line.
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TCU
Current projected seed: No. 8 (Midwest)
There isn't a need to worry about making the tournament as TCU has assured itself a spot in the bracket. It's come a long way from the season-opening loss to New Orleans, finishing the season with five straight wins. The last week couldn't have been better, getting wins against hot teams in ranked Texas Tech and Cincinnati. For nearly the entire season, the Horned Frogs were around the bubble, but the recent success has propelled them to a single-digit seed and on track to return to the tournament.
UCLA
Current projected seed: No. 10 (South)
After teetering on the bubble for much of conference play, UCLA has put itself in comfortable position. The Bruins pretty much wiped away the win against Illinois with a loss at Minnesota, but recovered immediately with an emphatic victory against Nebraska to get themselves back on track. They then beat rival Southern California to punctuate a sixth place finish in the Big Ten. UCLA has distance itself enough away from the cutline and can plan to be playing in the tournament once again.
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March Madness teams falling
Connecticut
Current projected seed: No. 2 (South)
A No. 1 seed was UConn's for the taking but Huskies have given it right up after an ugly loss at Marquette. It capped off what has been a strange past couple of weeks. It dominated St. John's, but suffered a Quad 3 loss to Creighton and then finished the regular season with a Quad 2 loss to the Golden Eagles. That gave Florida a chance to take UConn's spot, and the Gators didn't mess up their opportunity. The Huskies do remain a national title contender, but losing the No. 1 seed shows how this team can't be fully trusted as much as the other favorites.
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BYU
Current projected seed: No. 7 (West)
After starting the season 17-2, the Cougars have gone 4-8 since then and have struggled to adjust without Richie Saunders, who suffered a season-ending injury on Feb. 15. That stretch has included blowout losses to UCF and Cincinnati, resulting in a stunning 10th place finish in the Big 12. At least it was salvaged by getting a win over Texas Tech in the home finale. BYU has gone from being a top 16 overall seed to now trying to stay in the top half of the bracket, with a great chance of not making it out of the first round.
UCF
Current projected seed: No. 10 (East)
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A statement victory at BYU that effectively cemented UCF as a a tournament team has lost some spark with a three-game losing skid to end the regular season. It had a Quad 2 loss against Baylor and ugly Quad 3 defeat to Oklahoma State. Then a real struggle at West Virginia meant a missed chance to get a Quad 1 win, finishing with a 5-6 record in the category. The Knights aren't in danger of missing the field, but are now putting themselves in the double-digit seed area, which wasn't the trajectory a few weeks ago.
Missouri
Current projected seed: No. 11 (East)
It's gotten really uncomfortable for Missouri with the Tigers losing the last two games of the regular season. A blowout loss at Oklahoma was disastrous but it could have been redeemed with a Quad 1 game against Arkansas. Instead, the Tigers couldn't hold on and fell to the Razorbacks in overtime. Missouri entered the weekend as a No. 11 seed and likely stays one, but its now in the conversation for the First Four. Even with five Quad 1 wins, being No. 59 in the NET rankings really hurts the chances and it now needs at least one win the SEC tournament to feel confident.
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SMU
Current projected seed: No. 11 (Midwest, last four in)
The Mustangs have spent all of 2026 as tournament team. Now, it doesn't look like one. SMU lost its fourth straight game — all Quad 1 chances — which include two defeats to teams that aren't in the March Madness conversation. What's worse is the Mustangs have been blown out in nearly every defeat, finished with a 13-point loss at Florida State. They had slid to the First Four picture, but another confusing loss pushes them toward missing the tournament. Now having to play in the first round of the ACC tournament, SMU needs at least two wins in Charlotte. re
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness bracket: Teams rising, falling in NCAA seed predictions
