The Marshall Thundering Herd take on the Missouri State Bears in Springfield, MO. Kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Marshall is favored by -4 points on the spread with a moneyline of -198. The total is set at 52.5 points.
Here's my Marshall vs. Missouri State predictionand college football pick for Saturday, September 19, 2026.
Marshall vs. Missouri State Pick: Missouri State Team Total Over 23.5 points or Better
My Missouri State vs. Marshall best betis on the Bears to go over their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page . For more picks, be sure to download the Action Network app.
Marshall vs Missouri State point spread: Marshall -4 (-112), Missouri State +4 (-108)
Marshall vs Missouri State over/under: 52.5 (-112o / -108u)
Marshall vs Missouri State moneyline: Marshall -198, Missouri State +164
Marshall is feeling the ramifications of losing Charles Huff to other schools. From 10-3 and Sun Belt champions to 5-7 last season, Marshall still doesn't look quite in sync to start 2026.
It's not a terrible surprise to see a big loss to a school like Penn State (45-0), but not even a veteran talent like QB Carlos Del Rio-Wilson was able to muster more than 27% of available yards and the offense ran a play deemed successful (EPA >0) on just 35% of its snaps, garbage time included.
To follow that up, Marshall won a 28-26 decision over Middle Tennessee thanks to a missed two-point conversion (as a -13.5 favorite).
Del Rio-Wilson left that game with an apparent collarbone injury after just 28 snaps and Marshall gained just 54% of available yards (less than MTSU's 57%) and lost the yards edge 352-310.
The teams traded a defensive touchdown for a near-defensive touchdown, which turned into a two-yard Marshall touchdown. It was an underwhelming performance to say the least.
Tony Gibson said that Del Rio-Wilson will play this week.
Preseason concerns about Marshall's defensive line are coming to fruition. Although three of the front four were on the roster last year, they're all relatively inexperienced — the fourth is lightly-seasoned NC State transfer DE Kelvon McBride.
That front has been pushed around by a better Penn State offensive line, but also by MTSU, which is a real concern. The linebackers are upperclassmen, but also inexperienced in FBS action, and the trio isn't enough to offset the ground lost up front.
New head coach Casey Woods is making quite the impact early on at Missouri State. Though the resume isn't there yet — the Bears got their doors blown off in the second half of a 50-0 loss at Texas A&M — there's lots of positive buzz around the energy and culture Woods is in the process of establishing in Springfield.
Missouri State managed to rebound and dominate Lindenwood, a mid-level FCS foe, 48-14 last week. Woods and his OC Mark Cala pieced together an effective run game that saw five different players combine for six rushing touchdowns.
Of course, against A&M (which laughably out-talents MO State), that run game didn't work but QB Skyler Locklear had the ball forced out of his hands because he was also entirely ineffective.
The problem is, Locklear is one of the worst starting QBs in the FBS. He completed 8-of-17 passes for 34 yards–and, yes, I recognize he had no chance against A&M–and at UTEP , completed just 55% of his passes for 13 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
Against Lindenwood, he completed 17-of-20 passes for 258 yards. At 5-foot-11 and 195 pounds, Locklear needs to be protected and have options. Against better defenses, he doesn't have either.
MO State managed to get A&M off its rhythm early, holding onto 7-0, 9-0, and 12-0 deficits for most of the first half. But once the Aggies got rolling, they scored on their final seven full drives (removing the final kneeldown). Lindenwood didn't get anything going.
The rest of MO State's opponents fall somewhere in the chasm of talent between Texas A&M and Lindenwood. That makes the Bears tough to sort out at the moment, as we don't really have a usable data point through two games.
Most of the southeastern U.S. is currently under one of the most intense heat domes on the planet. Highs in Springfield this weekend will push 100º and this game kicks off at 5:30 p.m. local — right in the peak heat of the day.
While that will cool down considerably as the night goes on, expect frequent rotators (especially on defense) and plenty of cramps.
This kind of weather favors Overs. With coaches needing to frequently sub defenses and offenses pushing the tempo to force (or block) those substitutions, offenses tend to find more success in hot weather than defenses.
Our Action PRO tags this as a system weather play, with Overs cashing 59% of the time under these conditions.
But if you didn't get to the window, you missed a major move. The total opened at 53.5, was bet down under the key figure of 52, and then back up through it, where it sits now. I'd be wary betting the full-game total with this much influence already in the market.
Instead, I'm focusing on the advantage MO State brings in the run game against a vulnerable Marshall defensive front.
Couple that with the frequent substitutions due to the heat and Woods having shown he has a stable of capable running backs, and I like MO State to perform well Saturday. (I'll report back on the in-person scouting report, as I will be at this game Saturday afternoon!)
Pick: Missouri State Team Total Over 23.5 or Better
