Is there merit in trading back late in the first round?

For almost 20 years now, the Buffalo Rumblings comments section has been a treasure trove of smart, insightful — often hilarious — quips from Buffalo Bills fans.

Late in my first week on the job, I found two comments on the article I wrote about the Bills’ 2026 draft being viewed by executives and scouts around the league as ‘modernized thinking’ that sparked my interest in doing a study.

By the way, I welcome these type of discussions in the comments in the future, ones that pose a question which can lead to me nerd-ing out and ultimately can generate an article for the site (making a series from this would be amazing).

This particular article was born from a bozzman1106 comment that stated the following:

If we look at picks 25-32 over the last 10 years, there have only been 10 players selected in that range that have made a Pro Bowl with 2 of those 8 making it as alternates. Of those 8 players, only 2 have made the Pro Bowl more then once, TJ Watt and Tre’Davious White. So when people want to complain about not taking a guy at the end of the first round and trading back into the second round, you have a 12.5% chance of selecting a guy at the end of the first round that could make a Pro Bowl.

So if I am a GM and I have a chance to do what Beane did and move out of the first while then moving up in rounds 3 and 4, why would you not do that?

Then Hornell Fred added a very logical retort:

The opening paragraph in Fred’s comment sent me on a research mission.

I assumed the initial 10-year time frame from bozzman1106’s comment was 2016 – 2025 (10 draft classes), so I checked all those 80 picks from No. 25 – No. 32 overall to see the results for all of the teams. I counted 12 of 80 picks, which equals 15%, yet bozzman1106’s likely did not include TreDavious White or Tyler Linderbaum who were made with trade downs initially made before pick No. 25, which got him to 12.5% (10 out of 80). After the recheck, I realized there can be secondary labels to distinguish how those picks were acquired.

Of those 12 overall Pro Bowl selections made over the past 10 drafts at picks No. 25 – No. 32, I divided based on whether the selection was an original pick, acquired after a trade down initially outside our late first-round pick range, or acquired after a trade up into it.

Original pick Pro Bowlers: (4 of 12, 33%)

Packers : DT Kenny Clark
Steelers : EDGE T.J. Watt
Seahawks: LB Jordyn Brooks
Ravens: LB Patrick Queen

Pick acquired with trade down before pick No. 25(2 of 12, 16.6%)

Bills: CB TreDavious WhiteRavens: OC Tyler Linderbaum

Trade ups into picks No. 25 – No. 32(6 of 12, 50%)

Browns: TE David Njoku
Ravens: QB Lamar Jackson
Washington: EDGE Montez Sweat
Jets : EDGE Jermaine Johnson
Jaguars: LB Devin Lloyd
Bills: TE Dalton Kincaid

Here are the results of the juiciest aspect of this study — what did teams get that traded back from those picks between No. 25 and No. 32 over the past 10 years? You know, what the Bills have down twice now since 2024.

Turns out there were 19 trade downs by teams that held a pick in that range the past decade.

(I did not count prior trades that involved a veteran before the draft, or the 2024 trade between the Broncos and Saints that included Sean Payton.)

Those 19 trade downs netted the following collection of 46 players.

(Subsequent trade down / ups which used some of the picks acquired in the original trade down were counted.)

Of the group of 46, those in boldhave been named to a Pro Bowl, even as an alternate.

• Texans : WR Jayden Higgins + OT Aireontae Ersery

• Rams: TE Terrance Ferguson + QB Ty Simpson

• Chiefs : OT Josh Simmons + LB Jeffrey Bassa

• Bills: DT DeWayne Carter + WR Keon Coleman + IOL Sedrick Van Pran Granger + OT Travis Clayton

• Jaguars: OT Anton Harrison + DL Tyler Lacy

• Titans: CB Roger McCreary + OT Nicholas Petit-Frere + QB Malik Willis

• Buccaneers: DE Logan Hall + TE Cade Otton + OT Luke Goedecke

• Vikings: CB Jeff Gladney + EDGE DJ Wonnum + WR KJ Osborn

• Dolphins: Noah Igbinoghene + Solomon Kindley

• Colts: EDGE Ben Banogu + DB Marvell Tell + WR Michael Pittman

• Seahawks: S/LB Marquise Blair + WR DK Metcalf + S Ugo Amandi + LB Ben Burr-Kirven

• Rams: S Taylor Rapp + CB David Long + OL Bobby Evans

• Eagles: TE Dallas Goedert + CB Avonte Maddox + RB Miles Sanders

• Seahawks: DL Malik McDowell + DB Delano Hill + S Tedric Thompson + S Mike Tyson + RB Chris Carson

• Packers: CB Kevin King + LB/EDGE Vince Biegel

• Seahawks: OT Germain Ifedi + TE Nick Vannett

• Chiefs: DT Chris Jones + OL Parker Ehlinger + CB DJ White

Pretty long list, right?

Sticking with the math-based theme of the original comment and Hornell Fred’s question in response, I then did some quick division myself.

Five of 46 equals 10.8%, just under two percentage points lower than the 12.5% of the group of players selected after a team traded up into picks No. 25 – No. 32 or just made their original pick in that range in the 10-year sample. It’s worth noting, with such a small sample, the percentages move somewhat drastically with each player included. If in my findings, there were only four Pro Bowlers out of 46, that would’ve been 8.6%, and six out of 46 would have equated to 13%. In essence, we’re splitting hairs here.

Technically speaking though, with those late first-round picks over the past decade, teams have been slightly less likely to find a Pro Bowl after trading down from that range than when they traded up into that range or just made an original selection within picks No. 25 – No. 32.

Also… while the Pro Bowl is probably the easiest label to identify a hit, and I’m certainly not poking fun at bozzman1106 for using it, we can all agree it’s not the best identifier for success in the NFL.

My longstanding affinity for trading down, one of my core football beliefs, has never centered around a thought that you can get more Pro Bowlers after doing so. Certainly not. By in large, quite naturally, better players are selected earlier in the draft, no question. History screams that.

I’m a trade-down proponent — and clearly Brandon Beane has become one too — because of it what it does yield… an increased volume of picks, which their collective contributions almost always outweigh the impact of a singular player, and the risk diversification that comes with it.

In the trade-down group of this study, the trade-down teams went from picking potentially 17 players (there were two double trade down instances, the Bills in 2024 and Seahawks in 2017) to 46 players. That’s the massive difference.

Where do you land on this? Are you #TeamTradeDown, #TeamTradeUp, or #TeamStayPut?