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Will Miami Ohio make March Madness? Case for, against RedHawks NCAA bid
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- Will Miami Ohio make March Madness? Case for, against RedHawks NCAA bid
Will Miami (Ohio) make March Madness?
That's one of the key debates ahead on Selection Sunday .
After suffering its first loss of the season in the MAC quarterfinals on Thursday, Miami (Ohio) is at the selection committee's mercy.
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The RedHawks finished the regular season 31-0, and their record indicates they should be a shoo-in for March Madness. But that may not be the case without the MAC's automatic bid.
In USA TODAY Sports' final bracketology on Selection Sunday, Miami is projected as the last at-large team in the field of 68, with a trip to nearby Dayton in the First Four.
That will make for a nervy day.
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Miami's resume and season has perplexed the hoops world as it reignites the age-old postseason debate of best vs. deserving. The discussion intensified when former Auburn coach Bruce Pearl said the RedHawks aren't worthy of an at-large spot.
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"If we're selecting the 68 best teams, then Miami (Ohio) is going to have to win their tournament to qualify as a champion, because as an at-large, they are not one of the best teams in the country, and that's going to be a difficult choice for the committee," he said.
Miami's athletic director David Sayler wasn't too impressed with Pearl's analysis, firing back on Monday via social media .
"(You) are flat out wrong about (Miami Ohio basketball) when (you) say we would finish last in the Big East," Sayler posted. "The disrespect is awful and (you) should not be near a TV studio covering this sport when (you) show your true colors! Even slipped in a 'we' when talking about Auburn , nice work!"
While Pearl and Miami (Ohio) coach Travis Steele eventually squashed their beef , it did set the discourse for why Miami should and shouldn't be in the NCAA Tournament. It could have made all of this moot by heading into Selection Sunday as the MAC tournament champions, but now its time to breakdown the RedHawks' at-large case.
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Why Miami Ohio should be in NCAA Tournament
To start, Miami (Ohio) finished the regular season undefeated. It became the fifth program in the 21st century — Saint Joseph's (2004), Wichita State (2014), Kentucky (2015) and Gonzaga (2021) — to enter the conference tournament undefeated. The 31 wins are the most in Division I.
The RedHawks have the best shooting percentage at 52.6% and are ninth in 3-point percentage at 39.3%. They average 90.9 points per game, second in the country behind Alabama, an win by an average of 16 points a game, a margin that's seventh-best in Division I.
Some models back the success. The strength of record is 21st in the country, and in the RPI , the old model used to select NCAA Tournament teams before the NET rankings, the RedHawks are No. 28.
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History certainly favors Miami. No team with more than 28 wins has ever missed out on March Madness since it expanded in 1985, and the NCAA Tournament selection committee never left out a team with less than four losses.
Why Miami Ohio shouldn't be in NCAA Tournament
It's the quality of resume the tournament selection primarily uses that doesn't work in Miami's favor.
While undefeated, the RedHawks are ranked No. 54 in the NET rankings, high for an at-large team. It's still possible, as San Diego State was No. 52 when it made the First Four last season.
A deeper look reveals Miami doesn't have any Quad 1 games, and just two Quad 2 victories. A majority of the wins are Quad 4 with a 15-0 record that doesn't include the three victories against non-Division I teams. It doesn't help the loss to UMass qualifies as a Quad 4 loss.
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The lack of quality opponents really hurts other metrics. The strength of schedule ranks 256th and Miami has a KenPom rating of 93, surrounded by teams that are virtually out of the running for an at-large spot. In KenPom, the RedHawks have a strength of schedule ranking of 269th, and a the nonconference rating is fifth-worst in Division I.
All of the variables make for one of the most polarizing bubble contenders in recent memory. Miami deserves credit for playing its schedule perfectly and should be rewarded for the amount of wins, yet it's understandable to see why there's a chance they can end up being left out of the tournament — no matter how unfair it is.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Miami Ohio will find out NCAA Tournament fate on Selection Sunday
