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The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders take on the Florida International Panthers in Miami, Florida, on Tuesday, Oct. 20. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
FIU is favored by -9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -410. Middle Tennessee, meanwhile, enters as a +9.5 underdog and is +315 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 45.5 total points.
Here's my Middle Tennessee vs. FIU predictionand college football pick for Tuesday, October 20.
Middle Tennessee vs. FIU Pick: FIU Team Total Under 28.5
My FIU vs. Middle Tennessee best bet is on the Panthers to go under their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page .
Middle Tennessee vs FIU point spread: FIU -10.5, Middle Tennessee +10.5
Middle Tennessee vs FIU over/under: 45.5
Middle Tennessee vs FIU moneyline: Middle Tennessee ML +330, FIU ML -420
Middle Tennessee comes into this game after a gritty three-point win over Delaware last week in what amounted to a "save-your-season" opportunity.
Head coach Derek Mason has not had a successful tenure, and a loss would have dropped the Blue Raiders to 0-2 in CUSA play. But now at 3-3 at the midway point in the season, Middle Tennessee has much to play for.
Bowl eligibility is a realistic possibility, which would go a long way in reviving an apathetic fan base. This will be a good litmus test to see where this bunch stacks up in Conference USA and how this season might play out.
The offense has been more consistent this year with quarterback Roman Gagliano at the helm. MTSU is averaging 6.2 yards per play against CUSA opponents, and the Blue Raiders scored 30-plus points for the first time this season against an FBS opponent last week.
Gagliano has thrown for 1,204 yards with an 11:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and cutting down the turnovers has really helped this offense.
Dropped passes continue to be an issue, as the receivers sometimes struggle to make the easy catches, but if that were ever to get cleaned up, this offense could be considered somewhat dangerous.
Cam'ron Lacy is the leading receiver with 369 yards and four touchdown catches, and Neo Clifton has also contributed with 13 catches and 166 receiving yards.
The offensive line has improved tremendously in pass protection and avoiding negative plays, but the ground game continues to struggle and figures to do so here against FIU.
The defense hasn't been overly strong this season, but MTSU has faced several offensive-focused teams in the first half of the schedule.
Each of the Blue Raiders' first five FBS opponents have been equipped with mobile quarterbacks who can extend plays and pick up yardage with their legs.
The dual-threat nature of these opposing quarterbacks has frustrated MTSU, but I'm very interested to see how the defense holds up against the FIU offense, which doesn't have a mobile quarterback.
Overall, the tackling has been better this year for MTSU, and the Blue Raiders have a good coverage unit that does not allow explosive pass plays.
FIU has really been a fun team to watch this season, and the Panthers have played competitive football weekly.
Close losses to USF and FAU saw the Panthers defense show out, as they held those two opponents to 19 and 16 points, respectively. Big plays proved to be the downfall last week against Jacksonville State in a game the Panthers ultimately lost, 27-24.
The stop unit has been excellent by G6 standards in terms of preventing explosives, and the defense has created a lot of activity in the opposing team's backfield.
The defense is the backbone of this football team, and I expect we see more pressure, Havoc and drive-stopping plays behind the line of scrimmage in this game.
MTSU will have to execute well to find scoring opportunities against this defense, which is perhaps the best in CUSA.
The FIU offense found a bit of good fortune last week against Jacksonville State. The passing offense scored on two long touchdown passes from JJ Kohl to Maguire Anderson on spectacular catches as Kohl threw for 278 yards.
The Panthers have been balanced this season despite the ground attack being inconsistent.
The rushing offense couldn't get anything going last week against the Jacksonville State defensive front. FIU's longest rushing play went for just 12 yards, and the team rushing average ended up at just 3.9 yards per carry.
I envision these guys having more success on the ground against Middle Tennessee.
This line opened with FIU listed as a 10-point favorite with a total of 45.5. I like FIU to stay under its team total, which sits at 28.5.
The FIU offense isn't explosive, and the team generally struggles to score points. Last week, the Panthers scored 24 points in a loss to Jacksonville State, and they had only exceeded that point total one other time this season.
The offense tends to play at a slower pace, and it makes a concerted effort to run the football and play solid defense.
We didn't see any of that last week, as FIU went for it on fourth down in situations it would normally punt, and the two long, fluky passing touchdowns aren't likely to occur again.
The MTSU secondary hasn't played too poorly this season, and I don't expect to see chunk plays for FIU through the air in this game.
The Panthers want to run the football, and they should have success in this game against a Blue Raiders defense that ranks 137th nationally in Rushing Success Rate and 132nd in Rushing PPA allowed.
FIU has struggled badly in the red zone this season, converting just 7-of-22 trips into touchdowns. The MTSU defense has played well in the red zone, allowing touchdowns on just 10-of-17 possessions against Non-P4 competition this season.
Expect FIU to have to settle for a couple of red-zone field goals in this one, something it has already done 11 times this year.
The Panthers should get back to the rock-solid defensive performances we've seen for the majority of this season. I expect this game to be one where the defenses control the terms, and I really don't think either one of these coaches wants to get into another shootout.
FIU can control this game start to finish by forcing MTSU to execute perfectly and drive the field methodically.
I like this game to trend to the under and for FIU to win a close, lower-scoring contest. But this offense hasn't exceeded this point total in five of its six games this season, and I don't think it will here.
