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Will the Minnesota Twins Re-Sign A.J. Minter?
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- Will the Minnesota Twins Re-Sign A.J. Minter?
(Matt Blewett-Imagn Images)
The Minnesota Twins acquired left-handed reliever A.J. Minter from the New York Mets at the trade deadline, and he gave the bullpen a useful option down the stretch. Now, he is heading to free agency and the Twins have to decide whether to bring him back.
Minter made 25 appearances for Minnesota, going 1-1 with a 2.78 ERA across 22 2/3 innings. He struck out 21 batters and held opponents to a .218 batting average. Those are solid numbers for a late-inning left-hander. The complication is his 4.91 FIP, which was considerably higher than his ERA and raises questions about how repeatable that run prevention was.
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The gap between ERA and FIP does not automatically mean Minter was lucky. ERA measures the runs he actually allowed. FIP focuses on the outcomes a pitcher controls most directly, including strikeouts, walks and home runs.
A big gap between the two is worth examining, but it is not a verdict on its own. What it does is tell the Twins they need to look at the full picture before deciding how much to offer.
The case for bringing him back is simple. Minnesota needed a left-handed arm with major-league experience, Minter provided that, and his strikeout rate after the trade showed he could still miss bats. A short-term deal preserves bullpen depth without a long-term commitment to a reliever who will be 33 next season.
The concern is paying for the ERA when the broader numbers point to more modest results. Relief performance changes sharply year to year. The Twins would be taking a risk if they offer a lengthy or expensive deal based primarily on what happened over two months.
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Minnesota finished 77-85, third in the AL Central. They have holes to fill across the pitching staff, and bullpen spending needs to be measured against the cost of fixing other areas. A reliever on a multi-year contract takes flexibility away from the rotation or other upgrades that might have a bigger impact on whether the team gets back to competing.
The right approach is to pursue Minter on a short-term deal with a reasonable annual value, possibly with performance incentives built in. That structure lets the Twins benefit if he repeats his post-deadline performance while limiting exposure if the underlying numbers are closer to the truth.
If his market pushes toward a multi-year commitment at a premium price, the Twins should be willing to let him walk and spend that money elsewhere.
