MLB Home Run Predictions Today: HR Prop Bets for Monday, May 4

Story by

Andrew Phelps

Mon, May 4, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC ·

2 min read

It’s the "Monday Moonshot Monitor," and this slate is loaded with hitters in prime spots to do damage. With favorable splits and pitchers giving up loud contact, the stage is set for a night of balls flying out of the yard.

We have Aaron Judge in a matchup he’s already taken deep multiple times, Junior Caminero bringing strong power splits against a struggling arm, and Vinnie Pasquantino stepping into a favorable spot against a pitcher vulnerable to lefties. If you’re chasing dingers, these are bats that can leave the yard in a hurry.

All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. DraftKings does not sponsor this content.

Best Home Run Props Today

Aaron Judge Home Run Bet (+233)

Momentum is on the side of Judge heading into Monday’s matchup with Shane Baz . Judge launched his 13th home run on Sunday and has been especially strong at Yankee Stadium, where seven of those have come. He’s also handled Baz well, going 4-for-10 with two home runs. While Baz hasn’t allowed many long balls, his high fly-ball rate and .301 average allowed suggest trouble. With the history and current form, this sets up as another power spot for Judge.

Junior Caminero Home Run Bet(+381)

A favorable matchup is on deck for Caminero against Eric Lauer . Caminero has shown usable power against left-handers, with two home runs and a .917 OPS in those spots, and he’s coming off his ninth homer of the season. Lauer has struggled with a 6.00 ERA and has allowed seven home runs, including five to righties. With the splits lining up, this is a spot where Caminero’s power could show up again.

Vinnie Pasquantino Home Run Bet ( +449)

Momentum could be turning for Pasquantino after a slow start, especially in this matchup with Tanner Bibee . Pasquantino has hit all four of his home runs vs. right-handers and just went deep over the weekend. Bibee has struggled against lefties, allowing five home runs, all to that side, and comes in 0-4. Pasquantino has also seen him well, going 9-for-15 with two home runs. This sets up as a strong power spot.

2026 MLB HR Leaders

OF Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (13)
1B Munetaka Murakami , Chicago White Sox (13)
DH Yordan Alvarez , Houston Astros (12)
1B Ben Rice , New York Yankees (12)
1B Matt Olson , Atlanta Braves (11)
OF Kyle Schwarber , Philadelphia Phillies (11)
OF Mickey Moniak , Colorado Rockies (11)

This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on May 4, 2026, where it first appeared in the Sports Betting section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.