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I'm back after a long vacation and am ready to crush the Dinger Tuesday slate loaded with home run props to dig through.
The Rangers have a home-run gift in Anaheim with Brandon Nimmo's price standing out above the rest. Meanwhile, Shota Imanaga might be pitching well, but he is serving it up as always, and there's a great price on CJ Abrams on offer.
Finally, Pete Crow-Armstrong is once again in great position to go yard.
These are my favorite MLB player props for Tuesday, Aug. 11.
UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
| Player to hit a HR |
Odds |
| * | +350 |
| * | +510 |
| * | +325 |
| 💲 |
+10064 |
Nobody has a better home run matchup tonight than the Texas Rangers, and Brandon Nimmo is a HR bet for me at anything +300 or better.
Los Angeles Angels SP Ryan Johnson is the worst starter on one of baseball's worst rotations, which has shipped off starters while also dealing with injuries. He's allowed a homer in seven straight games and continues to struggle with command, with 25 walks against 38 strikeouts in 50 innings.
He's also allowed 13 long balls, resulting in a 2.17 HR/9 , while posting just a 34% ground-ball rate.
Nimmo has three dingers over the last two weeks and leads the team in that category, as well as wRC+ and xwOBA . He also gets the platoon advantage as a left-handed hitter against the righty Johnson.
There aren't a ton of great prices on the Rangers, but I'm taking Nimmo's hot bat at these odds over the handful of batters priced shorter than three dollars.
Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
Where to watch: ABTV, Rangers Sports Network
Washington's CJ Abrams has averaged around +375 for a dinger over his last 10 games, but oddsmakers are giving us better than +500 today at home against Shota Imanaga , who I think they're overvaluing.
The Chicago starter has allowed just 12 runs over his last eight games, but the majority of those runs have come via the long ball, with eight homers served up. He's surrendered 56 dingers over his last two seasons across just 277 innings. That's not a pretty HR/9 over a good sample, and his 37% ground-ball rate isn't helping either.
Abrams is seven homers off the league lead and is handling lefties at a better rate than he has over his career this season. It's lefty vs. lefty, but I like Abrams at home, and there are 60 points on this price that I'd buy down to.
Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Nationals.TV, Marquee Sports Network
This is a +EV price on the betting favorite in the NL MVP odds (-115), with a fair price of +250/+260.
The Nationals are trotting out Jake Irvin, who has allowed the fifth-most homers since 2023 and has seen his ground-ball rate fall for a second straight season. Irvin faced the Cubs once this season and allowed two dingers, while Pete Crow-Armstrong has taken him deep once across nine plate appearances.
There is nothing fancy here, just a price on the good side of three dollars with one of the best hitters in baseball in an elite HR matchup.
Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Nationals.TV, Marquee Sports Network
Josh Inglis' 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks : 27-148, -17.78 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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