MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Thursday, April 23

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Thirty-four hitters went deep yesterday, and I couldn't land one.

Today, on the small slate, I'm going square and hitting familiar names. No +1100 dingers with 200 points of expected value for me today. It's Thursday, and I'm just playing the  MLB player prop hits.

The Phillies have a great backdrop with winds blowing out at Wrigley, and the Yankees can club a Triple-A call-up at Fenway. Plus, I'll tell you why Byron Buxton is a great bet to go yard yet again.

These are my favorite home run props for Thursday, April 23.

• UPDATE:Added another HR pick + parlay.

Best MLB home run props today

Bryce Harper (+370)

Wrigley Field has to be on the HR card today, as it’s easily the best setting for a dinger.

Double-digit winds are blowing out to left field, which should aid hitters going that way, and  Edward Cabrera is a fly-ball pitcher who has been lucky so far with zero homers allowed.

On the Philadelphia Phillies side, both Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper have gone deep vs. Cabrera, but I’ll take Harper at a 110-point discount.  Adolis García (+410) also projects well, but I’m not getting cute — sticking with the top-end bats.

There are plenty of lefties in the Chicago Cubs bullpen, and Harper has been better vs. lefties this year. His 42% hard-hit rate leads Philly hitters, and I’m rolling with brand-name bats today.

• Time: 2:20 p.m. ET

• Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, NBCSP

Ben Rice (+520)

The New York Yankees bats have a chance to do damage at Fenway Park today with Payton Tolle starting for the Boston Red Sox .

The lefty is filling in for an injured Sonny Gray , and if his prior MLB numbers are any indication, he’s likely to give up homers.

Tolle allowed five long balls over 16+ innings last year, and Boston could be leaning on its B-bullpen as a decent home dog.

When it comes to Yankees hitters, Ben Rice might not be the obvious top option, but it’s hard not to call him their best bat right now. He’s second on the team in homers and has four over the last seven days. He also leads the club in wRC+, wOBA, and WAR, while slugging .743.

He’s not just hot — he’s been one of the most productive hitters in baseball to start the season. At +520, he’s my favorite look in a strong home-run spot for New York.

• Time: 6:10 p.m. ET

• Where to watch: NESN+, YES

Byron Buxton (+360)

Let’s back the hot hand in Byron Buxton , who has gone deep in back-to-back games and has all five of his homers this year over his last eight games.

His +360 price still shows positive expected value, with a fair range around +320/+330.

The Minnesota Twins face call-up Christian Scott , who gave up eight homers in just 47 innings last season. He struggles to keep the ball on the ground, posting 94 fly-ball outs to just 49 ground-ball outs last year.

This sets up as one of the hottest bats in the league against a fringe MLB starter and a league-average bullpen.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET

• Where to watch: Twins.TV, SNY

Jinglis' 2026 Transparency Record

• HR picks: 5-41, -10.4 units

Today’s HR parlay

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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