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MLB Home Run Props & Predictions Today: Best HR Picks & Parlay for August 1
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- MLB Home Run Props & Predictions Today: Best HR Picks & Parlay for August 1
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Another eventful slate in the Majors means lots of opportunity for long balls in my MLB player props home run analysis.
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Today's selections include Shohei Ohtani , CJ Abrams , and Dominic Canzone .
Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, August 1.
MLB home run props for today
| Player to hit a HR |
Odds |
| Dominic Canzone |
+388 |
| CJ Abrams |
+325 |
| Shohei Ohtani |
+250 |
| 💲 |
+9428 |
Home run prediction: Dominic Canzone (+388)
Dominic Canzone has been a consistent outlet for power in the Seattle Mariners lineup lately. The slugger has gone deep three times in his last seven contests, posting a .444 ISO.
Over the last week, he's squaring up everything, posting a 57.1% hard-hit rate and 19% barrel rate.Tonight's matchup against Connor Prielipp is an intriguing one for his hot bat. The Minnesota Twins starter has allowed 1.69 HR/9 over his last two starts while allowing a 52% hard-hit rate.
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Canzone also has a very respectable .351 ISO against left-handed pitchers.
I'll play this pick down to +400.
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Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
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Where to watch: FS1
Home run prediction: CJ Abrams (+325)
CJ Abrams is a regular in my home run props, but there's good reason for it. The Washington Nationals star continues to rake. He owns a .520 ISO over his last seven games, going deep four times during that span.
Abrams has an average launch angle of 26.1 degrees over his last 31 plate appearances and a 15.8% barrel rate. He'll face Reynaldo Lopez tonight, who has given up 1.80 HR/9 over his previous two startswhile allowing a 50% fly ball rate during that span.
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Lopez is prone to loud contact in the air, and Abrams is consistently getting lift under the baseball.
I'll play this pick down to +300.
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Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
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Where to watch: BravesVision, Nats.TV
Home run prediction: Shohei Ohtani (+250)
Shohei Ohtani is always a threat to leave the yard when he steps up to the plate, and he is showcasing his power right now. The two-way superstar has a .476 ISO in the last week, with two bombs in his previous five outings.
It's rare for him to not be squaring up the baseball lately. He has a 62.5% hard-hit rate and 18.8% barrel rate in the last week, and tonight's matchup against Payton Tolle screams value. Ohtani has actually hit lefties well, posting a .291 ISO.
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Tolle is having trouble with the long ball. He's allowed 2.45 HR/9 over his previous two appearances. One mistake could easily be punished by one of the most feared hitters in the Majors.
I'll play this pick down to +200.
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Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
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Where to watch: NESN, SportsNet LA
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
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HR picks : 17-83, -3.54 units
Best home run combo for August 1
CJ Abrams
Dominic Canzone
Shohei Ohtani
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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