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Is a Move to Bullpen Next for Struggling Cardinals' Left-hander?
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- Is a Move to Bullpen Next for Struggling Cardinals' Left-hander?
(Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images)
Growth, as St. Louis Cardinals' manager Oliver Marmol pointed out repeatedly over the final month of the 2026 season, can be measured in a variety of ways.
One way, of course, is the standings – an area where the Cardinals fell back a win from 2025 (78-84) to 2026 (77-85), one that was somewhat expected with the widespread youth on the roster and the club selling off veteran pitchers JoJo Romero and Dustin May for prospects at the MLB Trade Deadline.
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Instead, the Cardinals tried to evaluate areas of growth in non-traditional ways in a non-traditional season in St. Louis.
Growth was having a defined core group of players – Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker, JJ Wetherholt, Ivan Herrera, Masyn Winn, Michael McGreevy, Kyle Leahy and Riley O'Brien – take major steps in their games and evolve into building blocks.
Growth was seeing Leo Bernal, Joshua Baez, Quinn Mathews, Cooper Hjerpe and Nathan Church live up to the hype that followed them from the Minor Leagues and show signs they can be depended on going forward.
Growth was Andre Pallante and Gordon Graceffo shaking off the struggles of 2025 and showing the fortitude to change the trajectory of their careers.
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"This is a really young group, but there's been a lot of progress with so many of these guys," Marmol said. "You can go up and down the lineup and you see growth from so many of our guys. Then, go to the rotation and what McGreevy, Pallante and Leahy did this season, and the bullpen as well. Our staff has really enjoyed pouring into that group. They are hungry for information and they want to be coaches, so that's made it a lot of fun."
However, as president of baseball operation Chaim Bloom reminds, the Cardinals still have major gulfs between them and MLB's top teams. The National League champion Brewers, after all, finished 26 games ahead of St. Louis and battered the Cards in 11 of 13 head-to-head meetings. Much more growth is needed for the Cards to better navigate the difference the rebuilding and contending.
With growth being the focus, let's look back at the performances by individual players in the 2026 season and how they will figure into the Cards' plans going forward in 2027 and beyond:
Player name:Matthew Liberatore
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Age:26
How acquired:Acquired by Cardinals via trade on Jan. 9, 2020, with catcher Edgardo Rodriguez from the Tampa Bay Rays for outfielder Randy Arozarena and first baseman Jose Martinez.
2026 statistics:31 games/31 starts, 6-14. 5.23 ERA, 155 IP, 28 HR allowed, 154 strikeouts, 55 walks, .285 batting average allowed
Key numbers:There weren't many positives for Liberatore in 2026, but he did boost his whiff rate (from 20.2 percent to 23.9 percent) and his strikeout rate (from 18.8 percent to 22.8 percent). Foes hit just .206 off his curveball and only .216 off his slider. He had a 39.7 percent whiff rate on the curve and a 36.1 percent whiff rate on the slider. Liberatore looked to have steadied his 2026 by beating the Atlanta Braves twice near midseason -- on June 30 in Atlanta and July 11 in St. Louis -- but those victories proved to just blips in a bad season.
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Looking back to 2026:The Cardinals named Liberatore as their Opening Day starter with the belief that he was about to hit his prime and he could be a leader of the staff. However, Liberatore endured the rockiest year of his baseball career. He struggled particularly badly in April (0-1, 5.33 ERA), June (1-2, 8.27 ERA), July (1-3, 4.95 ERA) and August (0-5, 5.91 ERA). Liberatore went from July 21 to Sept. 16 – a stretch of11 starts where he went 0-8 – without a pitching win. Too often, solid starts or solid stretches in games were ruined by Liberatore missing with his location and then seeing those pitches crushed. His 28 homers allowed were among the MLB leaders in that category and nine more than he surrendered in 2025. Cardinals coaches pushed Liberatore to try and generate more swing-and-miss and he did that with a plus slider and a plus curveball. But that also cost him some of his control. Right-handed hitters, who has historically crushed Liberatore, batted .283 with 20 home runs against him, while lefties hit at a .292 clip with eight homers.
Looking forward to 2027:Liberatore can take some solace in the fact that his expected numbers – stats compiled based on the quality of contact and launch angle hit off him – were somewhat lower than his actual numbers. His expected ERA was 5.02 and his expected batting average against was .266 – lower than the actual 5.23 ERA and .285 batting average against. Liberatore must learn to stay out of the middle of the plate with his stuff. As recently as 2024 – when he pitched in relief – Liberatore's average four-seam fastball sat at 95 mph, but it has dropped to 93.9 mph in 2025 and 94.3 mph in 2026. Missing in the middle of the plate led to the opposition's rate of pulled ball in the air spiking to 22.6 percent – up dramatically over the 15.4 percent from 2025.
Denton's analysis:Liberatore's future with the Cardinals is likely out of the bullpen instead of the starting staff. He was effective as a reliever in 2024, but the Cardinals switched him back to the starting staff in 2025 (8-12, 4.21 ERA) and '26 with poor results. Liberatore has the maturity and makeup of a starter, but his stuff simply isn't good enough to go through lineups three times – especially when foes stack them with right-handed power hitters. His 1-8 record with a 5.58 ERA after the break for the MLB All-Star Game should be proof to the Cardinals that there likely isn't a future for him as a starter. He simply is better in one-to-two-inning bursts where his flaws aren't as exposed. A four-seam fastball (opponents hit .286 with 12 homers off it) and sinker (.355, one homer) can't sustain him, and he would be wise to become more of a lefty who misses bats with his slider, curveball and sweeper.
