Nebraska vs. Iowa prediction, odds, pick for March Madness Sweet 16

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Nebraska vs. Iowa prediction, odds, pick for March Madness Sweet 16

Jaren Kawada, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Thu, Mar 26, 2026 ·

5 min read

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Nebraska vs. Iowa prediction, odds, pick for March Madness Sweet 16 appeared first on ClutchPoints . Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here .

Nebraska (28-6) and Iowa (23-12) meet for the third time in the 2025-2026 season in March Madness , setting the table for a high-pressure grudge match . Both teams enter the trilogy off two of the most exciting games of the tournament to date.

Nebraska faces its Midwest rival after narrowly escaping with a 74-72 win over Vanderbilt, which followed a dominant win over Troy. The victories were the first two in Cornhuskers March Madness history, but they needed all the luck on their side to survive Tyler Tanner's in-and-out half-court heave.

Iowa's Round of 32 win also came down to the final possession, with the Hawkeyes stopping one-seed Florida to advance. They are now in the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since 1999 by winning their first two tournament games by a combined seven points.

March Madness odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook .

Nebraska vs. Iowa odds

Nebraska: -1.5 (-112)

Iowa: +1.5 (-108)

Over: 131.5 (-115)

Under: 131.5 (-115)

Nebraska vs. Iowa key injuries

Nebraska will face Iowa in the Sweet Sixteen with three players sidelined. The Cornhuskers will be without Ugnius Jarusevicius, Connor Essegian and Henry Burt, none of whom are new additions to the injury report.

Likewise, Iowa will play without Peyton McCollum, who has dealt with a foot injury for most of the year. McCollum is the son of Hawkeyes head coach Ben McCollum, making his absence the only negative aspect of the 44-year-old's first March Madness run with his current team.

None of the four injured players has been much of a factor all season and will not have an impact on the Sweet Sixteen clash.

Nebraska vs. Iowa betting trends

Nebraska is 19-14-1 against the spread
Nebraska is 2-0 against the spread in March Madness
Nebraska is 8-5 against the spread as single-digit favorite
Nebraska is 10-24 to the over
Iowa is 20-15 against the spread
Iowa is 2-0 against the spread in March Madness
Iowa is 1-5 against the spread as single-digit underdog
Iowa is 19-16 to the over

Nebraska vs. Iowa matchup

Iowa and Nebraska are as familiar with each other as any two college basketball teams can be. The first matchup ended with Fred Hoiberg getting into an on-court altercation with a Hawkeye fan, so expect nothing less in Act Three with no love lost between the programs.

While the first two meetings produced two vastly different results, each team had the same approach. Nebraska wants to space the floor and shoot threes, while Iowa is at its best when point guard Bennett Stirtz is in a rhythm and gets its big men involved.

Nebraska could not find the range in the first meeting, a 57-52 win for Iowa, but it shot the ball much better in the rematch with an inside-outside approach. Iowa did not have much of an answer for Hoiberg using sharpshooter Pryce Sandfort as a post-up playmaker, leading to a season-high 84 points allowed.

The altered approach allowed Nebraska to hit 10 three-pointers in the rematch after going just 5-for-24 in the first game. Shooting has been key for both teams in the series, which favors the Huskers, who are 16th in the country with 10.6 three-pointers per game.

Iowa is a significantly worse shooting team and instead thrives when it gets in the paint. Everything runs through Stirtz, the fifth-leading scorer in the Big Ten with 19.7 points per game.

Stirtz has been struggling to score in March Madness, but his playmaking has still led to easy shots for sharpshooter Cooper Koch and sixth man Tavion Banks.

However, Iowa has been able to hit from deep against Nebraska, averaging 8.5 triples in two games. The Huskers only allow 24.2 points in the paint per game, sixth-fewest in the country.

Nebraska vs. Iowa prediction and pick

The first two games between Nebraska and Iowa have each gone down to the wire, and this one should be no different.

The matchup is as close to a coin flip as possible, but the line is moving toward Nebraska for a reason. The Huskers discovered something in this specific matchup with Sandfort's playmaking that Iowa has no solid answer to, while clogging the paint at the other end.

Iowa needs to hit threes to beat Nebraska a second time, but that boils down to Stirtz, who is struggling to get going in the tournament. A matchup with the Huskers is not what he needs to right the ship after shooting just 37.5 percent from the floor against them in the regular season.

While each team scored more in the most recent meeting, expect both to regroup with an intent defensive focus. The 131.5 total is suspiciously low for two teams that combined to score 159 in their last meeting, but these are two teams that want to slow the pace and force each other to play in the halfcourt.

Iowa currently plays at the slowest pace in the country, while Nebraska has only hit the over in 10 of its 34 games.

Final Nebraska-Iowa Prediction & Pick: Nebraska -1.5 (112), Over 131.5 (-115)

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