The Nevada Wolf Pack take on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders in Murfreesboro, Tennessee, on Saturday, Sept. 19. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Nevada is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -180. Middle Tennessee , meanwhile, enters as a +3.5 underdog and is +150 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 50.5 total points.
Here's my Nevada vs. Middle Tennessee predictionand college football pick for Saturday, September 19.
Nevada vs. Middle Tenn Pick: Middle Tennessee ML +150
My Middle Tenn vs. Nevada best bet is on the Blue Raiders to win the game outright. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page .
Nevada vs Middle Tennessee point spread: Nevada -3.5 (-110), Middle Tennessee +3.5 (-110)
Nevada vs Middle Tennessee over/under: 50.5 (-110o / -110u)
Nevada vs Middle Tennessee moneyline: Nevada -180, Middle Tennessee +150
This is one of those weird travel spots for Nevada, which has a near five-hour flight and a 45-minute bus to Murfreesboro before being welcomed by full Southern heat and humidity.
It'll be about 92 degrees and sticky at kickoff. By the time Nevada left, overnight lows were down near 45. It's a small thing, but it matters when teams are coming off a long trip.
The biggest storyline is that Nevada quarterback Carter Jones is banged up. He had a shoulder bruise, tried to warm up against Montana State and had no zip on the ball, so the Wolf Pack went with AJ Bianco and Luke Duncan.
Well, both were pretty dreadful, finishing a combined 19-of-36 for 167 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions in a 13-point loss to FCS Montana State.
They're basically checkdown merchants, and only Bianco offers any real running upside. With Jones' availability and health in question, I'm leaning toward Middle Tennessee's Roman Gagliano being the better QB for this matchup.
Gagliano impacts stuff inside the pocket, can create outside the pocket and will take off and run when he has to. That kind of multi-dimensional threat matters in a game like this.
It's also worth noting that MTSU's game against Marshall showed it can hang for four quarters.
Cam'ron Lacy has been a real problem out of the slot for the Blue Raiders, racking up 17 catches for 190 yards and 2 touchdowns already this season, and he's slippery as a punt returner. He's the sort of player who can flip a short catch into a big play, and that matters against a defense that struggles to finish tackles.
The Middle Tennessee defense is a lot further along than I expected.
The Blue Raiders went the distance with the Thundering Herd and rank 28th in tackling, per PFF. That's huge against a Wolf Pack offense built to dink-and-dunk and break tackles. If a team can tackle in space, it'll take away a lot of Nevada's strengths.
The Wolf Pack ran wild against Western Kentucky , so the game will come down to being sound in the run game and closing on ball-carriers. The way MTSU handled Marshall gives me some faith that it would be up to the task.
If Jones is limited or rusty, give me Gagliano and the Blue Raiders in this spot.
Pick: Middle Tennessee ML +150
