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NFL Analyst Predicts ‘Bonkers’ Season from Los Angeles Rams Star
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- NFL Analyst Predicts ‘Bonkers’ Season from Los Angeles Rams Star
It's clear that the Los Angeles Rams have assembled a first-class organization. It's why they've reached the Super Bowl twice since 2018 and are now once again seen as favorites to win the Lombardi Trophy again in February. General manager Les Snead has been able to take risks comfortably, even if it means trading multiple first-round picks at a time just to get the player he covets most.
The Rams have pulled this move off time and time again. The latest one didn't involve two firsts, but the Rams still sent out a lot of value — enough to equal two firsts, plus change. However, the belief is that Myles Garrett won't have any hiccups taking his talent to LA after winning Defensive Player of the Year. Some even think he's in for a "bonkers" season with the Rams.
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Myles Garrett Predicted to Have 20-Sack Season With Rams
IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Last season with the Cleveland Browns , Myles Garrett set an NFL record with 23 sacks. His previous career-high was 16 sacks, which he set in 2021 and 2022. Garrett has only had one season with fewer than 10 sacks, back when he recorded seven as a rookie.
So, while Garrett can always be counted on to finish in the double digits, having done so in 8-of-9 seasons, will expectations change now that he's playing in a new defense? Nope. If anything, playing on a better Rams team could open up even more pass-rush opportunities and possibly even fewer double-teams for the five-time All-Pro.
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Recently, ESPN's NFL analyst Ben Solak even predicted that Garrett would record 20 sacks in his debut season with the Rams. Solak admitted that it is "ridiculous" to project any player to record 20 sacks in a single season, as it's only happened 23 times in the NFL's 106 seasons. Yet, as Solak tells it, "I can't think of a reason to project Garrett for any fewer."
Solak points out one factor Garrett has working in his favor in that the soon-to-be 31-year-old has missed just one game in the past five seasons. It also doesn't hurt that his pass-rush opportunities have "dramatically improved," per Solak.
"He had 448 pass-rush snaps last season, which was tied for eighth among all defenders. But when we filter for downs on which NFL Next Gen Stats gave the offense a presnap probability of dropping back to pass of at least 80%, Garrett tied for 17th with 217.
To have about 50% of your pass-rush snaps come on obvious pass downs is by no means a ridiculous proportion. But Jared Verse , whom Garrett is replacing in Los Angeles , had 241 obvious pass-rush snaps, sixth among all defenders. That's 34 more than Garrett — two per game over a 17-game season. That's not huge, but it's not insignificant, either. Unless the Rams decide to manage Garrett's pitch count for a postseason run, he should have more ripe opportunities for sacks than ever before."
It would be an incredible feat, as only one other player has ever recorded two seasons with 20 or more sacks — J.J. Watt . However, Pro Football Reference's unofficial sack charting shows that Mark Gastineau and Deacon Jones also accomplished the feat (Jones did it three times, rather than two).
Yet, only Jones recorded 20 or more sacks in consecutive seasons, giving Garrett a rare opportunity, but of course, he has to stay healthy and get to the finish line first. To do so, Garrett would need to average nearly 1.2 sacks per game. But he's done it before; last year, Garrett averaged 1.35 sacks per game, so he certainly has the ability.
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Ultimately, Solak says he "can't really find a good reason" for Garrett's sack numbers to drop off from 2025. That is, unless he suddenly regresses into a shell of his former self. Yet, even then, with increased pass-rush opportunities, Garrett could still put forth a special season.
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