We have a quarterback epidemic on our hands, folks.
Lamar Jackson is out indefinitely (again), and quarterback injuries are piling up across the league. Twice this season, I have seen a quarterback I've legitimately never heard of play real minutes in an NFL game.
As you plan your betting portfolio moving forward, it's important to ask, "Who can we actually trust this season?"
Halfway through the season, it's the perfect time to reset the board. We're ranking the top 16 quarterbacks for the rest of the season and the playoffs, and we'll dive into futures, MVP angles, and how the recent performances from these signal callers shape their teams' outlooks.
Here is my NFL quarterback rankingsreset entering Week 9.
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| QB Tiers |
|---|
1. Josh Allen ( Bills )
Josh Allen is obviously No. 1, sitting completely all alone in a tier of his own.
Honestly, it's so clear it's barely even worth discussing anymore. Even after slowing down a bit over the last month, Allen is still on pace for 5,000 yards and 49 combined touchdown s. He is the best player in the game, absolutely no question, and no one else is even close.
The Bills are 6-1 and the current favorite for the AFC 1-seed, which naturally begs the question: should Allen be the odds-on MVP favorite?
I have Buffalo around a 1-in-3 chance for the 1-seed and just over a 50-50 shot for a top-two seed, which puts him firmly in the mix. But you do not want to bet the midseason favorite. The target is on his back, and everyone will be watching and waiting for him to fail — and that vulnerable Buffalo defense is going to give him plenty of chances to do so.
I would price Allen's MVP chances around 30% to 35%, meaning his current +165 price tag (an implied 38%) is not the right bet right now.
Verdict: Pass on Josh Allen MVP at +165 (Caesars)
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2. Joe Burrow
( Bengals
)
3. Drake Maye
( Patriots
)
4. Patrick Mahomes
( Chiefs
)
Joe Burrow played in one of the wildest games of Week 8, a 43-36 scorigami overtime win against the Titans .
The Bengals trailed 13-0, then needed a fourth quarter comeback and a late defensive stand, and Burrow ultimately ran in for his sixth TD in overtime for the win. Cincinnati racked up 510 yards, 7.3 yards per play, went 7-for-10 on third downs, and posted a 58% success rate . So how do you do all of that against the Titans and still almost lose?!
Should Burrow's MVP odds be better or worse after that performance?
Burrow went 38-for-48 for 462 yards and five passing touchdowns , plus the game-winning rushing TD. But he also took three sacks and threw three interceptions to Amani Hooker— including two absolute lollipop 500-balls.
I personally think Burrow's MVP odds should be worse, considering he is the primary reason they even needed his late-game heroics! But that isn't how this works. In a month, all the voters will remember is the heroics, the walk-off win, and the massive stats.
Despite those interceptions, Burrow still finished with a +17 Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) and in the 80th percentile for EPA per play. He is the first quarterback in 75 years (shouts Norm Van Brocklin!) with 450 passing yards , five passing touchdowns, and a rushing touchdown in a single game.
Burrow leads the NFL in completion percentage (73%) and passing touchdowns, and ranks second in success rate. He is on pace for 5,136 passing yards and 53 total touchdowns.
And look at the Bengals' upcoming schedule: Falcons , Steelers , Commanders , Saints , Browns . They could mean 10-2. Cincinnati is a 1-in-3 shot for a top-two seed, and that is your Burrow MVP ticket. At +600, there is still value. I wouldn't price him longer than +400.
Drake Maye and Patrick Mahomes round out this upper echelon tier.
Maye's early interceptions cost New England against Seattle and Jacksonville, but since Week 4, he is first in the NFL in EPA per play (with Burrow second). Maye is doing this with subpar blocking and a dearth of weapons.
Meanwhile, Mahomes is out of my top tier for the first time ever. And by the numbers, he probably shouldn't even be in this tier.
The Chiefs blew a 24-13 fourth-quarter lead to the Broncos , culminating in a sequence where Mahomes had a 4th-and-goal on the 1-yard line on the final play of the game where, for the first time in my life, I actually wanted the ball out of Mahomes' hands.
I wanted him to hand it off. Instead, he took a sack and didn't even give the Chiefs a chance to win.
I'm keeping Mahomes in this tier out of respect for his playoff pedigree, but this check-down version of Mahomes is troubling.
Pick: Joe Burrow for MVP (+600 at FanDuel)
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5. Jordan Love
( Packers
)
6. Caleb Williams
( Bears
)
Jordan Love shredded Carolina on Thursday Night Football: 288 yards, three touchdowns, and no sacks. He posted a 0.32 EPA per play on a 10.0 aDOT with a +12 CPOE. You simply shouldn't be able to have those three numbers together.
Love is chucking it down the field and completing way more passes than expected. He ranks 6th in EPA over his last five games and is absolutely ripping the pigskin to Christian Watson and Matthew Golden. The Packers are up to a 42% chance to make the playoffs, but they still face a rough schedule ahead, so there's plenty to prove.
Caleb Williams and the Bears are surging after a 34-17 Monday Night Football beatdown of the Seahawks . The Ben Johnson effect is all over this team.
Chicago opened the game with an impressive 17-play, 80-yard touchdown drive that chewed up 8.5 minutes of clock. For context, Seattle had allowed exactly one opening-drive touchdown in its previous 28 games. The Bears dominated with a 52% to 37% success rate advantage.
We also saw the orange-sleeved debut of Jeffery Simmons on Chicago's defensive line, and he was an absolute menace with six tackles, two tackles for a loss, and a sack — highly reminiscent of the Khalil Mack debut in Chicago.
The Bears are 6-2 and nearly tied with the Vikings atop the NFC North. Simmons doesn't move the regular season needle a massive amount for my power ratings — but he is a serious playoff weapon. Chicago has a funky schedule with only one game in the next 20 days, followed by a brutal time crunch. It's a weird road ahead.
As for this Bears defense, a great start with Simmons, but I need to see this defense against a real playoff offense before crowning them.
That's not Seattle at the moment. The Seahawks offense is basically Jaxon Smith-Njigba right now, and Sam Darnold (-17 CPOE, three sacks, one INT last week) continues to be a massive problem.
The Seahawks have lost three of their last four, falling to 1-3 in the conference (a crucial playoff tiebreaker). Seattle is down to 40% to make the playoffs, and the Rams are sitting right at 50%. Could they both end up missing and leave room for the entire NFC North?
Pick: Seahawks & Rams to Miss Playoffs + All 4 NFC North Teams to Make Playoffs (+797 at FanDuel)
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7. Dak Prescott
( Cowboys
)
8. Brock Purdy
( 49ers
)
9. Trevor Lawrence
( Jaguars
)
10. C.J. Stroud
( Texans
)
The Cowboys suffered a brutal 33-30 overtime loss to the Cardinals , their ninth loss in 10 matchups against Arizona. It was Dallas' first home loss ever in 204 games when holding a 14-point fourth-quarter lead.
Still, I don't really blame Dak Prescott. He is solidly a top-10 quarterback in EPA however you slice it, and he's been good this year.
But Dallas' run game has disappeared, the defense was awful against Gardner Minshew and Tyler Allgeier , and the coaching staff continues to make calamitous errors.
Despite the loss, this may have finally bought us a chance to invest in the Cowboys. They are 3-5 and three losses behind the Giants in the NFC East, but … it's the Giants.
Dallas has the Colts , Titans, and Eagles in November. If the Cowboys can just get to 8-9, they have a real shot. You can bet Dallas to win the NFC East at +240 at Caesars. Or, you can get incredibly goofy with a massive "Miss the Playoffs" parlay that functionally operates as a Dallas division ticket while fading a bunch of fraudulent teams.
If we're going to invest in this frustrating Cowboys team, why not go in on the similarly frustrating Bucs and make a big parlay out of it?
Speaking of fraudulent teams, the Ravens are likely out of the mix, down to Joe Fagnano at quarterback. Yet, C.J. Stroud and the Texans' playoff odds haven't budged!
Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud are squarely in the top 10 now, and Lawrence backers will push for a higher standing. He'll get there if he keeps playing like this.
Stroud has 11 touchdowns and just one interception, and he ranks No. 3 in EPA per play since Week 4. The Texans defense gets a breather, and their upcoming schedule is incredibly winnable ( Chargers , Browns, Colts, Ravens, Steelers, Commanders).
Houston controls its own destiny against the AFC's fringe contenders, and I like backing their win total and head-to-head win props against a few teams I expect to fade.
Pick: Texans Over 8.5 Wins (+134 at DraftKings)
Pick: Texans to have more wins than the Raiders , Panthers , and Ravens (+211 at FanDuel)
The Mega-Fade: NYG, WAS, PHI, NO, CAR, ATL, LV, & CLE to Miss Playoffs (+1843 at FanDuel)
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11. Jared Goff
( Lions
)
12. Matthew Stafford
(Rams)
13. Kirk Cousins
(Raiders)
These three are the mainstays of this tier that I call Litmus Tests: quarterbacks that show you what your team is. Surround them with talent, give them time, and you'll get pretty good QB play.
Kirk Cousins is second in the league in passing touchdowns and ranks top 10 in EPA despite playing with absolutely no wide receivers in Las Vegas. Matthew Stafford has proven playoff success and MVP upside, but his numbers are down and age and injury concerns are glaring.
Then there is Jared Goff. The metrics are always near the top, and Detroit's offense is humming. The Lions just handed the Vikings their first loss of the season in a 19-15 grinder. Detroit racked up 384 yards and hit a 16% explosive play rate (the highest allowed in the Brian Flores era).
OC Drew Petzing got creative with the run game and utilized tight ends out of the backfield creatively. Detroit is playing well and still has a bunch of soft games remaining, and it can beat any opponent — 12 or 13 wins are definitely on the table.
Let's build a Lions escalator to invest in Detroit's success while simultaneously fading the overrated Steelers. The fact that the Lions are +110 to have more wins than the Steelers is honestly insane.
Congratulations to Pittsburgh on beating Cooper Rush, Daniel Jones , Jalon Daniels, Tyler Shough, and Deshaun Watson . The metrics love Pittsburgh, but the schedule is about to flip from the softest in the league to the hardest with a brutal upcoming stretch.
If Detroit wins 12 or 13 games, Dan Campbell is live for Coach of the Year. He has to win the division to get this award, but doing so would effectively knock down some of the other favorites like Ben Johnson and Kevin O'Connell.
I make Campbell around a 7% possibility (+1250), meaning his 60-1 odds are wildly off the mark.
Pick: Lions to have more wins than the Steelers (+110 at FanDuel)
Pick: Dan Campbell for Coach of the Year (+6000 at FanDuel)
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14. Jayden Daniels
(Commanders)
15. Justin Herbert
(Chargers)
16. Michael Penix Jr.
(Falcons)
We ranked 16 QBs because it means you're in the top half of the league, but I also did it to show just how bleak it gets trying to get to 16 names. We are truly grasping at straws here.
There is no way I am including Bo Nix , Baker Mayfield , or Aaron Rodgers in my rankings. I can't there with Sam Darnold or Kyler Murray right now. I see flashes from Tyler Shough, Geno Smith , and Bryce Young , but I already know I'm sunk if I back them.
Honestly, I genuinely tried to talk myself into Fernando Mendoza as a legitimate top-16 option.
Jayden Daniels is obviously a top-16 talent when healthy, but I have real concerns about his elbow and long-term durability, even this season.
Justin Herbert is basically dead last in the league in every metric, but given my options and how awful his situation has been this season, I will just take a theoretical shot on his raw talent.
And Michael Penix Jr.? He was top 10 in EPA per play before this week and can really fling it.
And this might forever be the nicest thing I ever said about Michael Penix.
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Joe Burrow for MVP: +600 (FanDuel)
Texans to have more wins than Raiders, Panthers, and Ravens: +211 (FanDuel)
Lions to have more wins than Steelers: +110 (FanDuel)
Dan Campbell for Coach of the Year: +6000 (FanDuel)
The Mega-Fade (NYG, WAS, PHI, NO, CAR, ATL, LV, CLE to miss playoffs): +1843 (FanDuel)
