Fittingly, the closer we get to Halloween, the more the preseason AP Top 10 begins to resemble a cursed graveyard.
Texas A&M and Oklahoma were slotted eighth and 10th, respectively, in the preseason poll and have taken seven losses collectively here in 2026.
But the Aggies and Sooners' crashout pales in comparison to what has happened to Oregon football. The Ducks opened the season as the nation's second-ranked team. Oregon even collected 14 first-place votes back in August.
Now, Nike's flagship college football brand is struggling to tread water, something that Ducks generally do without breaking a sweat.
Dan Lanning's squad is 4-3, which effectively eliminates it from College Football Playoff contention. How will the Ducks respond with their dreams dashed and the rumor mill swirling in the Pacific Northwest?
Let's dive into the Northwestern vs Oregon oddsand my college football picks for Week 9 below. For more college football picks and analysis, download the Action Network app today.
Oregon's offense is a broken-down sports car. After scoring 37 points per game in 2025 (10th) under offensive coordinator Will Stein, the Ducks' offense is unrecognizable this season.
Quarterback Dante Moore has been sidelined with a concussion since late September. Without its Heisman hopeful, UO has mustered just 14 points per game across its last three.
The combination of Dylan Raiola and Brock Thomas hasn't moved the needle.
The Ducks have also struggled with play-calling. Over the weekend, Oregon fired offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer. This move was one of desperation, plain and simple.
Lanning now must cobble together a game plan with a team that has lost its edge and competitive fire.
The vibes outside of Chicago, by contrast, are nearing an all-time high.
The preseason media poll pegged Northwestern to finish 14th in its 18-team league. The Wildcats have already far surpassed that projection, opening the season 6-1 with their lone defeat coming on the road by six points to the defending national champions.
While Oregon's offense looks dead in the water, a former Duck, Chip Kelly, has rejuvenated the Wildcat attack. Year over year, the improvement in Evanston is staggering.
Last season, Northwestern averaged 23.4 points per game (98th) while generating 346 yards per contest (98th). It has improved by 100 yards per game this season while pumping in more than 11 points per game more than its previous scoring average.
Quarterback Aidan Chiles looks reborn in Kelly's system.
The former blue-chip recruit is sporting an immaculate 12:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has also proven to be a dynamic red-zone threat, evidenced by his nine rushing touchdowns.
Only three Power 4 quarterbacks have more rushing touchdowns in 2026. Interestingly, it was his effort in defeat that gives me the most confidence.
He was locked in from the jump against Indiana, completing 22-of-29 passes for 293 yards and a pair of scores.
And critically, he's piloting an offense that refuses to beat itself. The Wildcats have just three giveaways in seven games (3rd) and rank second in red-zone efficiency. That's an excellent pairing to find in an underdog.
The final element that makes a play on Northwestern too enticing to pass up is its defense. The 'Cats have perfected a bend-but-don't-break approach. Teams regularly move the ball on the Wildcats, but the red zone is where things get dicey.
Northwestern opponents are punching in touchdowns in the red zone at the seventh-lowest clip in the sport (39.1%). That will be the difference in Eugene.
Last week, Oregon outgained Illinois with 426 yards of offense but managed only a touchdown and a field goal. It has become a theme for UO.
Oregon will continue to fail in critical moments, and Northwestern will demonstrate why it's one of the best-coached teams in the country.
Pick: Northwestern +3.5
