The Houston Astros may once again focus more on offense, as they have in recent years, and perhaps on the defensive shortcomings they still have heading into 2027. Now, a priority should be doing everything possible to acquire arms who can sustain the starting rotation.
Houston has used 25 different starting pitchers over the past two seasons, and only four of them have been able to record at least 100 combined innings during that span. But that is not the worst part, amid the constant ups and downs and the immense list of pitchers on the injured list.
There is something even more concerning heading into 2027, and that is that only two of those pitchers remain in the rotation. Hunter Brown (292.2 innings pitched) and Peter Lambert (155.2 innings pitched), since Framber Valdez (192) left Houston for the Detroit Tigers in 2026 and Spencer Arrighetti (123.1 innings pitched) went to the Toronto Blue Jays at the past trade deadline.
I really enjoyed Lambert's emergence and what he did to revive his major league career after being out of work in 2024 and going to Japan to pitch in NPB and keep moving forward. However, there is no way I am not still a little skeptical, since Lambert arrived in Houston after posting a 3-11 record with a 4.26 ERA in 21 starts with the Yakult Swallows.
Either way, assuming Lambert becomes consistent again and extends his durability as he did in 2026, Houston still needs more impact from its starting pitchers.
Houston Astros pitcher Ronel Blanco (56). Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
I think that when we talk about uncertainty, there is no clearer example than AJ Blubaugh's impact in 2026, as he finished with 96 innings in 64 relief appearances, accumulating more innings than 17 of the Astros' 19 starting pitchers throughout the entire regular season.
We can talk about impact, projections, and spreadsheets, but the main conversation should revolve around the uncertainty surrounding the starting rotation. That said, let's assume Hayden Wesneski , Cristian Javier , Ronel Blanco , and Mike Burrows will be healthy and Houston will be able to count on them to build the rotation. Do you trust that all four of them would be enough?
All of them have combined for just 2.1 fWAR, and including Tatsuya Imai , who can opt out of his contract after the 2026 season, would raise the figure slightly to 2.3. There are several pitchers who will be free agents and can contribute much more in a single season than that value accumulated by the Astros' starting pitchers over the past two years.
Pitchers such as Sonny Gray (3.4 fWAR in 2026), Nick Martinez (2.9), Dustin May (2.8), Michael Soroka (2.7), and Clay Holmes (1.8) will probably reach free agency and be very interesting options for the Astros to invest in.
But if the same mindset remains, trusting in recoveries that will not come and signing pitchers with a limited track record of impact like Mike Burrows, who has recorded the worst fWAR among Houston's starting pitchers over the past two campaigns, it will be very difficult to build a team that is less dependent on the bullpen and has better chances of making an impact in October.
This article was originally published on www.si.com/mlb/astros/onsi as One Offseason Mistake the Houston Astros Cannot Afford to Repeat .
