This opponent is the ideal matchup for the Lakers in the first round of the NBA Playoffs

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This opponent is the ideal matchup for the Lakers in the first round of the NBA Playoffs

An image collage containing 4 images, Image 1 shows LeBron James of the Los Angeles Lakers reacting to his basket, Image 2 shows Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets looks on during a game against the Los Angeles Lakers, Image 3 shows Kevin Durant of the Houston Rockets smiles during a game, Image 4 shows Anthony Edwards in a white Minnesota Timberwolves jersey with number 5

Michael Duarte · NY Post Sports

Thu, Mar 19, 2026 ·

6 min read

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The Lakers , a team that once drifted through winter like they were searching for themselves in the fog, have suddenly snapped into focus . They've won seven straight games heading into Thursday's showdown in Miami . Ten of eleven overall. And this stretch has come during the toughest part of the schedule.

And yet, despite the heater they're on, the reality is that the NBA Playoffs are not the regular season. A best-of-seven series is cold and unforgiving. It doesn't care about how many games you've won in a row or who you've beat. It's about matchups and adjustments. Not making mistakes when the margin for error is razor thin.

Thankfully, we now have a sneak peek at what those matchups could potentially look like for the Lakers in the first round of the NBA Playoffs.

Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James reacts to his basket against the Houston Rockets in the second quarter at Toyota Center. Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

As of Thursday, the Lakers find themselves as the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference. Separated by just two and a half games from the No. 6 seed. If things remain on the same trajectory as they have since Feb. 1, the Lakers' first-round opponent will be one of three teams: Minnesota , Houston or Denver .

Five of the Lakers' last eight games have been against those three teams, giving us a great enough sample size as we head into the final phase of the regular season to determine which team would be their ideal opponent in the first round of the NBA Playoffs.

If the Lakers want to advance out of the first round and make a deep run in the Western Conference, the matchup they should quietly, almost guiltily, hope for is the Timberwolves .

Yes, the same team that bullied them a year ago. The same long, suffocating, frontcourt-heavy machine that turned the Lakers into a small-lineup experiment gone wrong.

That series wasn't just a loss — it was a physical education.

Rudy Gobert patrolled the paint like it was his private property, while Naz Reid and Julius Randle took turns reminding the Lakers that size, when weaponized correctly, can be impossible to overcome.

But if we've learned one thing over the last three weeks it's this: this is not last year's team.

Not even close.

Luka Doncic of the Los Angeles Lakers is guarded by Anthony Edwards of the Minnesota Timberwolves during the game on March 10, 2026 at Crypto.Com Arena in Los Angeles, California. NBAE via Getty Images

This most recent version of the Lakers walks differently. Talks differently. Defends like it actually means it.

DeAndre Ayton has changed the geometry of the floor in a way that doesn't always show up in highlights but absolutely shows up in the win column. He doesn't have to dominate Gobert — he just has to make him work hard and stay in his chest. And that alone is a shift from last postseason, when Gobert dominated the Lakers centerless lineup.

Then there's Marcus Smart , the kind of player you only appreciate when he's wearing your jersey.

He brings a certain chaos to the perimeter — a controlled disruption — that allows the Lakers to throw waves at Anthony Edwards instead of prayers.

Edwards will get his numbers. Stars always do. But there's a difference between scoring and dictating, and the Lakers now have enough defensive teeth to make sure he doesn't do both.

The Lakers swept their three games against Minnesota in the regular season by margins of 18, 1, and 14. When the Lakers get downhill and out in transition, when they get to the free throw line, when Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves , and LeBron James play off each other, they have a better offensive rating than most of the teams in the league, including Minnesota.

Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets looks on during the game against the Los Angeles Lakers on March 14, 2026 at Crypto.Com Arena in Los Angeles, California. NBAE via Getty Images

The same cannot be said about Denver.

The Nuggets have the number one offensive rating in the NBA, and are a riddle the Lakers still haven't fully solved yet, even when they win.

Nikola Jokic might be the best basketball player on the planet. Every possession feels like it's written in cursive while everyone else is still printing in block letters.

Yes, the Lakers took the season series with Denver two games to one, but they played them twice this month.

The first time was a wire-to-wire victory for the Nuggets. The second game on March 14 saw Reaves miss a free throw, grab his own rebound and score to send the game to overtime. They needed a Doncic game-winner to secure the thrilling 127-125 comeback victory.

That's not sustainable. That's survival.

Luka Doncic of the Los Angeles Lakers shoots a three point basket during the game against the Houston Rockets on March 18, 2026 at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. NBAE via Getty Images

And Houston?

Despite winning back-to-back games in their building, the Lakers playing the Rockets is trickier than it looks.

They're young, volatile, and right now, unraveling at the seams. Six losses in ten games, including head-scratchers against teams already thinking about lottery odds.

The Lakers walked into Toyota Center this week and took control like veterans reminding a young team of its place. But youth doesn't stay lost forever. It recalibrates. It explodes when you least expect it.

A playoff series against Houston wouldn't be clean — it would be frantic, unpredictable, physical and dangerously emotional. The Lakers also won the season series two games to one, but there's no telling what could happen in a seven-game series with Kevin Durant , Amen Thompson , and Alperen Sengun on the court.

Anthony Edwards of the Minnesota Timberwolves looks on during the game against the Los Angeles Lakers on March 10, 2026 at Crypto.Com Arena in Los Angeles, California. NBAE via Getty Images

Minnesota, by contrast, offers clarity.

There's a rhythm to that matchup now.

A familiarity.

The Lakers know where the cracks are, and more importantly, they now have the personnel to pry them open.

Reaves plays like a man who has stopped asking for permission. Doncic controls the tempo and takes over when he needs to. And James — somehow, impossibly — still bends time when it matters most.

But here's the warning, whispered beneath all the optimism:

LeBron James of the Los Angeles Lakers dunks the ball during the game against the Houston Rockets on March 18, 2026 at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. NBAE via Getty Images

Be careful what you wish for.

Because chasing the "right" opponent is how teams lose sight of themselves. The Lakers don't need perfection. They need alignment — health, discipline, and the version of themselves that has been stalking opponents for the last three weeks.

Still, if the question is who gives them the cleanest runway out of Round 1, the answer is Minnesota.

And if the Lakers get that matchup, don't expect them to say it out loud. Don't expect smiles, relief or celebration.

Just expect a different series than we all witnessed last year.

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