The USA began the World Cup in style by beating Paraguay 4-1 in their first Group D fixture.
It puts the USMNT in a great position not only to qualify for the knockout phase of the competition, but also to top their group.
Finishing first should, on paper at least, give them an easier draw in the Round of 32. Meanwhile, the comfortable victory over Paraguay has seen Opta increase the host nation's chances of winning the World Cup this summer.
Photo by Sarah Stier – FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images
In reality, the US are not among the favourites to win the competition despite having the home-field advantage.
This was reflected in Opta's pre-tournament predictions, as quoted by TNT Sports .
In the lead up to the World Cup, their supercomputer said the USA had a 19.4% chance of making it to the quarter finals, an 8.2% chance of making it to the semi-finals and 3.3% chance of reaching the final.
Meanwhile, they were given just 1.2% chance of actually winning the World Cup this summer.
However, Opta's supercomputer, which is updated after each set of games, has now boosted the USA's chances of progressing deep into the competition.
On June 13, 2026, the USMNT are given a 27.92% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, which is a near nine per cent increase.
Their semi-final chances have gone up to 11.05%, the US have a 4.34% chance of making it into the showpiece, and have a 1.57% chance of actually going on to win the entire thing.
It's a small increase when it comes to actually lifting the World Cup, but the fact their prospects of making it into the last eight and beyond have increased so much overall after just one match highlights how good they were against Paraguay.
Elsewhere, Spain remain the tournament favourites with a 16.34% chance of lifting the trophy next month.
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