Orioles vs Yankees Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's MLB Game

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Although the New York Yankees couldn’t sweep the Houston Astros on the road, they remain one of the hottest teams in baseball.

With the Baltimore Orioles entering tonight's matchup facing plenty of pitching questions, we don’t expect that to change. 

Read all about it in my Orioles vs. Yankees predictionsand MLB picks for Friday, May 1.

Who will win Orioles vs Yankees today: Yankees moneyline (-175)

This is a tough spot for the Baltimore Orioles , sending Triple-A call-up Cade Povich to face one of the hottest lineups in baseball with a depleted bullpen behind him.

The New York Yankees present Povich with the same problem they’ve posed to so many starters this season: a chase-reliant arm facing the team with the lowest chase rate in baseball.

That will force Povich to rely on competitive pitches like the heater, and that introduces a whole host of issues as New York enters this game ranking first in both barrel rate and hard-hit rate against the fastball over the last month.

I’ve projected the Yankees at -200, so while we are laying some juice, it’s worth it considering the Baltimore pitching situation.

COVERS INTEL:

Cade Povich's chase percentage grades in the 89th percentile, but the Yankees swing out of the zone just 25% of the time.

Orioles vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-115)

Will Warren continues to overachieve, sporting an expected ERA that’s a full run higher than his actual one, with his expected FIP telling the same story.

While I expect the Yankees to prevail, Warren will run into issues with his bottom-30th percentile hard-hit rate, and the Orioles should do their part to help plate a couple of runs in the Bronx tonight.

Chris Hatfield's 2026 Transparency Record

• ML/RL bets:11-9, +1.62 units

• Over/Under bets:12-9, +2.72 units

Orioles vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Orioles +150 | Yankees -175

• Run line: Orioles +1.5 (-155) | Yankees -1.5 (+125)

• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)

Orioles vs Yankees trend

New York has cashed the moneyline in 34 of its last 50 games (+7.90 Units / 9% ROI).  Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees.

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