Owen Murphy is one of the prospects I've covered as part of my ongoing Braves Prospect Report series, so be on the lookout for his full profile, which hasn't been released yet. But in the meantime, I want to look at how his major league debut went, because it didn't go the way anyone hoped, and I don't think it was a total loss.
Murphy, a first-round pick of the Atlanta Braves in the 2022 draft, appeared five times for Atlanta in 2026 and pitched 12 innings. He got the call earlier than expected because of injuries elsewhere in the rotation, and the results were mixed. A new Oct. 28 evaluation from Battery Power takes a closer look at the numbers behind that stretch, and they tell an interesting story.
Start with what went well. Murphy posted a 34.7% chase rate, which means major league hitters were swinging at pitches outside the strike zone against him. He also kept his walk rate at 5.4%, and for a young pitcher making his first trip through the big leagues, that's a good sign. A pitcher who can get swings out of the zone without handing out free passes has something to build on.
Now the other side. Murphy's hard-hit rate allowed was 48.8%, his expected ERA was 7.49 and he finished with an fWAR of -0.3. In other words, when hitters did make contact, they made a lot of loud contact. That expected ERA matters because it suggests the results weren't simply bad luck. His actual ERA was 6.00, so if anything, the underlying numbers were a little worse than what showed up on the scoreboard.
That brings me to the difference between control and command, which is really the heart of this. Control is throwing strikes. Command is putting the ball where you want it. Murphy clearly has the first. He wasn't walking hitters, and that's not nothing. He issued only three walks in twelve innings. But too many of his pitches ended up in dangerous spots, and big league hitters don't miss many of those. His secondary offerings were especially vulnerable, and he allowed four home runs over his final three appearances. That's a small sample, but it's the kind of detail that stands out.
It's also worth keeping the sample size in mind. Twelve innings is twelve innings. I'm not ready to call Murphy a bust, and I don't think anyone should be. Most pitchers don't walk in and dominate. But a debut like this tells you what he needs to work on, and for Murphy, that's location, particularly with the pitches he uses to put hitters away.
So can he fix it? I think there's a reasonable case that he can. Murphy opened the year at Double-A Columbus and moved up to Triple-A Gwinnett in late April, where he pitched well for the majority of the season, keeping opposing hitters to a .198 average. The Braves still have the option of giving him more time in the minors to refine his command, work on how he sequences his pitches and clean up the execution of his secondary stuff. He's still young, so he has time. Sometimes the best thing for a young pitcher is more reps in a place where mistakes don't cost as much.
The other possibility is the bullpen. If his command doesn't improve enough to survive turning a lineup over multiple times, a shorter role could let him lean on his best pitches. Atlanta hasn't announced a permanent change to his role, and his debut was back in July. I'm not saying he's destined for the bullpen, but it's a path worth considering if the problems persist.
It is also my personal philosophy that getting roughed up in his first taste of the Majors is a good thing. The thing you were dreading happened. Now you can move on and get better. Take JR Ritchie's MLB debut, for instance .
Ritchie debuted on April 23 against the Washington Nationals, and James Wood took him deep on the first pitch he threw. Hard to start worse than that. But then, Ritchie settled down and bounced back, allowing two runs through seven innings on just five hits while striking out seven. That is what Murphy has an opportunity to do, in a manner of speaking.
Now, back to Ritchie for a second because it's an interesting comparison. Both were taken in the first round of the 2022 Draft: Owen Murphy with the 20th pick, Ritchie at 35 (Competitive Balance Round A). Through September 22, Ritchie had a 4.79 ERA with 66 strikeouts, not a dominant line, but a much longer look than Murphy got. The two have taken different paths from the same draft class, and I don't think it's fair to rank them yet. If anything, it's a reminder that there's rarely a straight line from a first-round pick to a finished product.
What I'd want to see from Murphy in 2027 is simple. Keep the strike-throwing and the chase rate, and cut down on the pitches in the middle of the plate. The tools to miss bats seem to be there. The question is whether he can locate well enough to survive at this level, and that's the problem he has to solve before the Braves can count on him.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/mlb/braves/onsi as Owen Murphy Showed Control in the Majors, but Command Is the Next Test .
