Packers vs. Bears prediction, odds, pick for NFC Wild Card playoffs

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Packers vs. Bears prediction, odds, pick for NFC Wild Card playoffs

Jaren Kawada, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Thu, Jan 8, 2026 ·

5 min read

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Packers vs. Bears prediction, odds, pick for NFC Wild Card playoffs appeared first on ClutchPoints . Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here .

The Chicago Bears (11-6) and Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) split their regular season meetings, placing even more stakes on their grudge match in the 2025-2026 NFL playoffs. The Bears ' win over the Packers in the rematch allowed them to take control of the NFC North, giving them home-field advantage in the Wild Card matchup.

Chicago's 11-win season is its best since 2018, when it last won the NFC North. The Bears have not won a playoff game since 2010, when they beat the Seattle Seahawks in the Divisional Round after earning a first-round bye.

The Packers are preparing for their third consecutive playoff appearance, having made the postseason in six of their seven years under head coach Matt LaFleur. Green Bay has not won the division since 2021, and it trots into the playoffs on a four-game skid.

The last time the teams met on Soldier Field led to one of the most electric moments of the 2025 season, when Caleb Williams hit DJ Moore for a walk-off 46-yard touchdown in overtime. Both games between the Packers and Bears were decided by a single score and came down to the final drive.

However, while the tables are set for another barn-burner, the Chicago weather could become a significant third factor. It is forecast to rain in the city all day, potentially leading to severe inclement weather.

NFL Wild Card odds courtesy of DraftKings .

Packers vs. Bears odds

Green Bay Packers : -1.5 (-108)

Chicago Bears : +1.5 (-112)

Over: 44.5 (-115)

Under: 44.5 (-105)

Packers vs. Bears key injuries

Packers

TE Tucker Kraft , OUT (torn ACL)

C Elgton Jenkins , OUT (fractured fibula)

DE Micah Parsons , OUT (torn ACL)

DT Devonte Wyatt , OUT (ankle)

CB Nate Hobbs , OUT (ankle)

QB Malik Willis , Questionable (shoulder)

RT Zach Tom , Questionable (knee)

Bears

DE Dayo Odeyingbo , OUT (Achilles)

LB Noah Sewell , OUT (Achilles)

CB CJ Gardner-Johnson, OUT (concussion)

LT Braxton Jones , Questionable (knee)

LT Ozzy Trapilo , Questionable (knee/quad)

CB Kyler Gordon , Questionable (groin)

Packers vs. Bears betting trends

Packers are 6-10-1 against the spread (T-5th-worst in NFL)
Packers are 2-6-1 against the spread on the road
Packers are 2-5 against the spread as road favorite
Packers are 9-8 to the over
Bears are 10-6-1 against the spread (sixth-best in NFL)
Bears are 4-3-1 against the spread at home
Bears are 1-0 against the spread as home underdog
Bears are 8-8-1 to the over

Keys to Packers vs. Bears matchup

Neither team will admit it, but the Packers and Bears are built very similarly, at least offensively. Both teams are led by high-level offensive coaches who want to run the ball to get their offenses going early to open up the passing game.

While Chicago's two-man running back tandem of D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai remains the engine to its offense, Williams enters the postseason on a tear. The second-year quarterback has over 240 passing yards in three of his last four games, while throwing just one interception during that frame.

Williams has struggled against zone-based defenses for most of the year, but he lit up the Packers in both regular season meetings. Green Bay's secondary has also ceded big games to Bo Nix and Jared Goff late in the year.

The same cannot be said about Jordan Love , who has not played since going down against the Bears early in Week 16. Love, however, was good to go for Week 18 and should be fully healthy for the playoffs.

The Packers will need their quarterback to win this game. Love threw three touchdowns in the Packers' Week 14 win, one week after he tossed a season-high four touchdowns against the Detroit Lions .

While the Bears' defense has been susceptible to the run all season, they were able to shut down Josh Jacobs in both meetings. Jacobs has just 122 rushing yards on 32 carries against the Bears, averaging a subpar 3.8 yards per carry, with just two runs longer than 10 yards.

Packers vs. Bears prediction and pick

The Packers have not been healthy since early December, a month in which they allowed 29.5 points per game, seventh-most in the league. Green Bay has not won a game since losing Micah Parsons to a torn ACL.

In what projects to be a rained-out game, it is difficult to trust either defense in its current state. Neither team has been great at containing the run recently, particularly Green Bay, which has been uncharacteristically sluggish and undisciplined over the last month.

However, injuries are severely limiting this Packers team, which is also without center Elgton Jenkins and is dealing with a banged-up Josh Jacobs and Zach Tom. Jacobs insists he is fine, but he has averaged a putrid 2.4 yards per carry in his last two games before sitting out Week 18.

The Bears, meanwhile, have already confirmed star receiver Odunze will return and remain hopeful that left tackle Braxton Jones will play for the first time since Week 7.

The Packers and Bears have already shared the field for two hours, and neither team was able to separate itself. Nothing should change in the trilogy, with elevated stakes and severe weather conditions only heightening the intensity of the matchup. Chicago is just shaping up to be the team with more left in the tank at this point in the season, with the home crowd likely to be another significant factor.

Finals Packers-Bears prediction & pick: Bears +1.5 (-112), Under 44.5 (-105)

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