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Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoit Saint Denis prediction, odds, pick for UFC 329
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- Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoit Saint Denis prediction, odds, pick for UFC 329
Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoit Saint Denis prediction, odds, pick for UFC 329 appeared first on ClutchPoints . Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here .
UFC 329: Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway 2 continues on the main card in the co-main event fight between Paddy Pimblett and Benoit Saint Denis in the lightweight division. Check out our UFC 329 odds series for our Pimblett-Saint Denis prediction and pick.
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Paddy Pimblett (23-4) comes in off a five-round decision loss to Justin Gaethje but previously stopped Michael Chandler and submitted King Green, flashing scrambling grappling and high-output boxing as he comes into his fight this weekend against Benoit Saint Denis.
Benoit Saint Denis (17-3, 1 NC) storms into UFC 329 on a four-fight finish streak, violently stopping Dan Hooker and Beneil Dariush with early TKOs and submissions as he comes into his fight this weekend against Paddy Pimblett.
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UFC 329 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings .
UFC 329 Odds: Paddy Pimblett-Benoit Saint Denis Odds
Paddy Pimblett: +130
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Benoit Saint Denis: -155
Over 2.5 rounds: +124
Under 2.5 rounds: -160
Why Paddy Pimblett Will Win
Pimblett's clearest path over Saint Denis is exploiting the one big vulnerability BSD still shows: defensive recklessness when he pushes forward. He's hittable, enters on straight lines, and is willing to eat shots to force exchanges, which plays into Paddy's counter hooks, knees, and volume when he's set at range.
On the feet, Paddy is the more varied, unpredictable striker. He switches stances, throws in combination, and mixes kicks with looping punches that can meet BSD as he crashes into the pocket, especially if Saint Denis overcommits on entries without layered setups. If Paddy keeps the first layer clean — circling, jabbing, and punishing naked level changes — he can win long stretches of stand-up.
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The grappling dynamic is more competitive than people assume. Pimblett scrambles well, attacks back takes and chokes in transitions, and has shown he can turn defensive grappling sequences into offensive chains; BSD's top game is fierce, but he sometimes gives hips and neck when chasing finishes.
Lastly, Paddy's gas tank and experience in longer, chaotic fights matter. If he survives the early storm, forces Saint Denis to work through failed shots and extended clinches, BSD's pace and durability could degrade enough for Pimblett's volume and opportunistic grappling to steal the later rounds or even find a club-and-sub finish.
Why Benoit Saint Denis Will Win
Saint Denis brings a level of sustained violence and pressure that Paddy hasn't truly dealt with yet at lightweight. BSD doesn't just come forward; he chains strikes into level changes, clinch entries, and relentless mat returns, forcing opponents to defend in multiple phases instead of getting comfortable in one range.
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That multi-layered approach is a problem for Paddy's game, which often relies on having time to set up his volume and scrambling. When someone is constantly in his face, punching, kicking, and shooting, his tendency to get hit clean and accept bad positions becomes much more costly. BSD is exactly the kind of fighter who punishes every lazy frame, every slow hip escape, with more damage and more control.
On the mat, Saint Denis is a nightmare. He doesn't just look for one clean takedown and rest; he rides the hips, hunts the back, and mixes strikes with choke threats until opponents either give the neck or mentally break. Paddy's defensive grappling is crafty, but his willingness to scramble and roll can backfire badly against someone who thrives in chaotic grappling and doesn't slow down.
Add BSD's cardio, durability, and willingness to walk through fire, and you get a recipe for Paddy spending long stretches stuck defending, getting worn down, and eventually overwhelmed by pressure and ground-and-pound.
Final Paddy Pimblett-Benoit Saint Denis Prediction & Pick
This matchup screams chaos, but the dynamics lean toward Saint Denis if he fights his usual pressure-heavy game. BSD will look to storm forward, forcing Paddy to defend strikes, takedowns, and clinch entries all at once rather than getting comfortable at range.
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If Benoît can consistently crash distance, cut off Pimblett's lateral movement, and chain level changes into clinch and mat returns, Paddy's historically shaky defensive striking and tendency to back straight up become serious liabilities. BSD thrives when opponents are reacting, not initiating.
On the canvas, Saint Denis's top game is built for attrition. He rides the hips, mixes brutal ground-and-pound with back-taking threats, and forces opponents to choose between eating damage or exposing the neck; even a strong scrambler like Paddy can get drowned under that pace over time.
Pimblett will have his moments, but unless he snatches something early in a scramble, the more likely outcome is BSD's pressure and layered offense steadily overwhelming him.
Benoît Saint Denis walks through early exchanges, drags Paddy into deep waters, and forces a late ground-and-pound TKO after extended top control.
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Final Paddy Pimblett-Benoit Saint Denis Prediction & Pick: Benoit Saint Denis (-155), Under 2.5 rounds (-160)
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