Padres vs Cubs series will come down to these 3 things
Story by
Padres vs Cubs series will come down to these 3 things
Andrés Soto, USA TODAY·USA TODAY Sports
·
3 min read
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A year ago, theSan Diego PadresandChicago Cubsmet in the National League wild-card series. What a difference a year makes.
The Padres are on almost the exact opposite trajectory now than they were in 2025: they're hitting the ball.
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Fernando Tatis Jr,Manny MachadoandJackson Merrillall rebounded from slow starts to help spark a remarkable mid-season turnaround inSan Diegoas they finished out the year 41-18 after sitting at 50-53 entering July 24. The offense, paired with the deepest bullpen in baseball and getting guys back in the rotation from the IL, not only re-inserted themselves into the wild card conversation but shot them straight to the top of it.
The Cubs won the regular-season series 5-1, but their last matchup was on July 1, weeks before the Padres got it together. Now, they'll have a chance to redeem themselves against a Cubs team that eliminated them at Wrigley Field last October – and this time, it'll be at home in Petco Park.
Here are three factors that will decide the NL wild card series between the Padres and Cubs:
The San Diego Padres' Xander Bogaerts celebrates after hitting a solo home run against the Chicago Cubs during the fourth inning of Game 1 at Petco Park on Sept. 29, 2026.
(Orlando Ramirez, Getty Images)
The Chicago Cubs' Pete Crow-Armstrong steals second base in front of the tag by Jake Cronenworth during the third inning of Game 1 at Petco Park on Sept. 29, 2026.
(Orlando Ramirez, Getty Images)
The San Diego Padres' Fernando Tatis Jr. celebrates after hitting a home run against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning of Game 1 at Petco Park on Sept. 29, 2026.
(Denis Poroy, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)
Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong reacts after Fernando Tatis Jr. hit a solo home run during the first inning of Game 1 at Petco Park on Sept. 29, 2026.
(Orlando Ramirez, Getty Images)
TheNew York Yankeesand the Boston Red Sox stand during the national anthem prior to game one of the American League Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium on Sept. 29, 2026 in the Bronx borough of New York City.
(Al Bello, Getty Images)
Nick Sogard #20 of the Boston Red Sox tags out George Lombard Jr. #96 of the New York Yankees for a double play during the fourth inning in game one of the American League Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium on Sept. 29, 2026 in the Bronx borough of New York City.
(Al Bello, Getty Images)
New York Yankees third baseman Amed Rosario throws to first for an out during the second inning against the Boston Red Sox during game one of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Yankee Stadium.
(Brad Penner, Imagn Images)
Ben Rice of the New York Yankees celebrates on second base after hitting double to center field against Payton Tolle #70 of the Boston Red Sox during the first inning in game one of the American League Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium on Sept. 29, 2026 in the Bronx borough of New York City.
(Caleb Bowlin, Getty Images)
Chicago White Soxpitcher Grant Taylor (31) reacts with Chicago catcher Kyle Teel (8) after game one of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Daikin Park.
(Troy Taormina, Imagn Images)
Houston Astrossecond baseman Jose Altuve (27) stretches to first base to hit a RBI single in the eighth inning against Chicago White Sox first baseman Munetaka Murakami (5) during game one of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Daikin Park.
(Troy Taormina, Imagn Images)
TheHouston Astrosline up for the beginning of the game against the Chicago White Sox during game one of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Daikin Park on Sept. 29, 2026.
(Troy Taormina, Imagn Images)
Colson Montgomery #12 of the Chicago White Sox hits a home run in the fourth inning against the Houston Astros in game one of the American League Wild Card Series at Daikin Park on Sept. 29, 2026 in Houston.
(Alex Slitz, Getty Images)
Lucas Spence of the Houston Astros watches as a home run hit by Colson Montgomery of the Chicago White Sox clears the fence in the fourth inning in game one of the American League Wild Card Series at Daikin Park.
(Alex Slitz, Getty Images)
Manager Joe Espada of the Houston Astros relieves Bryan King #74 in the second inning against the Chicago White Sox in game one of the American League Wild Card Series at Daikin Park on Sept. 29, 2026 in Houston.
(Alex Slitz, Getty Images)
Chicago White Soxshortstop Colson Montgomery gets hit by a pitch in the seocnd inning against the Houston Astros during game one of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Daikin Park.
(Troy Taormina, Imagn Images)
Sam Antonacci of the Chicago White Sox slides into home plate to score a run past Yainer Diaz of the Houston Astros in the first inning in game one of the American League Wild Card Series at Daikin Park on Sept. 29, 2026 in Houston, Texas.
(Alex Slitz, Getty Images)
Sam Antonacci of the Chicago White Sox slides into second base in front of Jeremy Pe–a of the Houston Astros in the first inning in game one of the American League Wild Card Series at Daikin Park on Sept. 29, 2026 in Houston.
(Alex Slitz, Getty Images)
ThePhiladelphia Philliesline up before the game against the Atlanta Braves in game one of the National League Wild Card Series at Truist Park on Sept. 29, 2026 in Atlanta. The MLB postseason has arrived as the thrills of playoff baseball in the fall has fans ecstatic to watch every moment unfold.
(Edward M. Pio Roda, Getty Images)
Austin Riley of the Atlanta Braves reacts after a three-run home run against the Philadelphia Phillies during the eighth inning in game one of the National League Wild Card Series at Truist Park on Sept. 29, 2026 in Atlanta.
(Kevin C. Cox, Getty Images)
A detailed view of Philadelphia Phillies equipment in the dugout before the game against theAtlanta Bravesin game one of the American League Wild Card Series at Truist Park on Sept. 29, 2026 in Atlanta, Ga.
(Kevin C. Cox, Getty Images)
Ha-Seong Kim of the Atlanta Braves is introduced before the game against the Philadelphia Phillies in game one of the National League Wild Card Series at Truist Park on Sept. 29, 2026 in Atlanta.
(Kevin C. Cox, Getty Images)
A general view before the game between the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies in game one of the National League Wild Card Series at Truist Park on Sept. 29, 2026 in Atlanta.
(Edward M. Pio Roda, Getty Images)
Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Trea Turner is tagged out by Atlanta Braves shortstop Ha-Seong Kim in the third inning during game one of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Truist Park.
(Dale Zanine, Imagn Images)
Atlanta Braves pitcher Chris Sale (51) throws out Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Derek Hill (49) in the third inning during game one of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Truist Park.
(Dale Zanine, Imagn Images)
Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber breaks his bat in the third inning during game one of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Truist Park.
(Dale Zanine, Imagn Images)
A detailed view of the shoes of Mauricio Dubon of the Atlanta Braves as he sits on the dugout against the Philadelphia Phillies during the third inning in game one of the National League Wild Card Series at Truist Park on Sept. 29, 2026 in Atlanta.
(Kevin C. Cox, Getty Images)
Bryan de la Cruz of the Philadelphia Phillies runs the bases against the Atlanta Braves during the seventh inning in game one of the National League Wild Card Series at Truist Park on Sept. 29, 2026 in Atlanta.
(Edward M. Pio Roda, Getty Images)
Michael Harris II of the Atlanta Braves reacts as he scores off an RBI triple by Ozzie Albies during the sixth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies in game one of the National League Wild Card Series at Truist Park on Sept. 29, 2026 in Atlanta.
(Kevin C. Cox, Getty Images)
1/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
The San Diego Padres' Xander Bogaerts celebrates after hitting a solo home run against the Chicago Cubs during the fourth inning of Game 1 at Petco Park on Sept. 29, 2026.
(Orlando Ramirez, Getty Images)
1/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
The San Diego Padres' Xander Bogaerts celebrates after hitting a solo home run against the Chicago Cubs during the fourth inning of Game 1 at Petco Park on Sept. 29, 2026.
(Orlando Ramirez, Getty Images)
2/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
The Chicago Cubs' Pete Crow-Armstrong steals second base in front of the tag by Jake Cronenworth during the third inning of Game 1 at Petco Park on Sept. 29, 2026.
(Orlando Ramirez, Getty Images)
3/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
The San Diego Padres' Fernando Tatis Jr. celebrates after hitting a home run against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning of Game 1 at Petco Park on Sept. 29, 2026.
(Denis Poroy, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)
4/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong reacts after Fernando Tatis Jr. hit a solo home run during the first inning of Game 1 at Petco Park on Sept. 29, 2026.
(Orlando Ramirez, Getty Images)
5/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
TheNew York Yankeesand the Boston Red Sox stand during the national anthem prior to game one of the American League Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium on Sept. 29, 2026 in the Bronx borough of New York City.
(Al Bello, Getty Images)
6/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
Nick Sogard #20 of the Boston Red Sox tags out George Lombard Jr. #96 of the New York Yankees for a double play during the fourth inning in game one of the American League Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium on Sept. 29, 2026 in the Bronx borough of New York City.
(Al Bello, Getty Images)
7/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
New York Yankees third baseman Amed Rosario throws to first for an out during the second inning against the Boston Red Sox during game one of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Yankee Stadium.
(Brad Penner, Imagn Images)
8/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
Ben Rice of the New York Yankees celebrates on second base after hitting double to center field against Payton Tolle #70 of the Boston Red Sox during the first inning in game one of the American League Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium on Sept. 29, 2026 in the Bronx borough of New York City.
(Caleb Bowlin, Getty Images)
9/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
Chicago White Soxpitcher Grant Taylor (31) reacts with Chicago catcher Kyle Teel (8) after game one of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Daikin Park.
(Troy Taormina, Imagn Images)
10/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
Houston Astrossecond baseman Jose Altuve (27) stretches to first base to hit a RBI single in the eighth inning against Chicago White Sox first baseman Munetaka Murakami (5) during game one of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Daikin Park.
(Troy Taormina, Imagn Images)
11/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
TheHouston Astrosline up for the beginning of the game against the Chicago White Sox during game one of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Daikin Park on Sept. 29, 2026.
(Troy Taormina, Imagn Images)
12/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
Colson Montgomery #12 of the Chicago White Sox hits a home run in the fourth inning against the Houston Astros in game one of the American League Wild Card Series at Daikin Park on Sept. 29, 2026 in Houston.
(Alex Slitz, Getty Images)
13/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
Lucas Spence of the Houston Astros watches as a home run hit by Colson Montgomery of the Chicago White Sox clears the fence in the fourth inning in game one of the American League Wild Card Series at Daikin Park.
(Alex Slitz, Getty Images)
14/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
Manager Joe Espada of the Houston Astros relieves Bryan King #74 in the second inning against the Chicago White Sox in game one of the American League Wild Card Series at Daikin Park on Sept. 29, 2026 in Houston.
(Alex Slitz, Getty Images)
15/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
Chicago White Soxshortstop Colson Montgomery gets hit by a pitch in the seocnd inning against the Houston Astros during game one of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Daikin Park.
(Troy Taormina, Imagn Images)
16/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
Sam Antonacci of the Chicago White Sox slides into home plate to score a run past Yainer Diaz of the Houston Astros in the first inning in game one of the American League Wild Card Series at Daikin Park on Sept. 29, 2026 in Houston, Texas.
(Alex Slitz, Getty Images)
17/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
Sam Antonacci of the Chicago White Sox slides into second base in front of Jeremy Pe–a of the Houston Astros in the first inning in game one of the American League Wild Card Series at Daikin Park on Sept. 29, 2026 in Houston.
(Alex Slitz, Getty Images)
18/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
ThePhiladelphia Philliesline up before the game against the Atlanta Braves in game one of the National League Wild Card Series at Truist Park on Sept. 29, 2026 in Atlanta. The MLB postseason has arrived as the thrills of playoff baseball in the fall has fans ecstatic to watch every moment unfold.
(Edward M. Pio Roda, Getty Images)
19/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
Austin Riley of the Atlanta Braves reacts after a three-run home run against the Philadelphia Phillies during the eighth inning in game one of the National League Wild Card Series at Truist Park on Sept. 29, 2026 in Atlanta.
(Kevin C. Cox, Getty Images)
20/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
A detailed view of Philadelphia Phillies equipment in the dugout before the game against theAtlanta Bravesin game one of the American League Wild Card Series at Truist Park on Sept. 29, 2026 in Atlanta, Ga.
(Kevin C. Cox, Getty Images)
21/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
Ha-Seong Kim of the Atlanta Braves is introduced before the game against the Philadelphia Phillies in game one of the National League Wild Card Series at Truist Park on Sept. 29, 2026 in Atlanta.
(Kevin C. Cox, Getty Images)
22/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
A general view before the game between the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies in game one of the National League Wild Card Series at Truist Park on Sept. 29, 2026 in Atlanta.
(Edward M. Pio Roda, Getty Images)
23/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Trea Turner is tagged out by Atlanta Braves shortstop Ha-Seong Kim in the third inning during game one of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Truist Park.
(Dale Zanine, Imagn Images)
24/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
Atlanta Braves pitcher Chris Sale (51) throws out Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Derek Hill (49) in the third inning during game one of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Truist Park.
(Dale Zanine, Imagn Images)
25/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber breaks his bat in the third inning during game one of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Truist Park.
(Dale Zanine, Imagn Images)
26/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
A detailed view of the shoes of Mauricio Dubon of the Atlanta Braves as he sits on the dugout against the Philadelphia Phillies during the third inning in game one of the National League Wild Card Series at Truist Park on Sept. 29, 2026 in Atlanta.
(Kevin C. Cox, Getty Images)
27/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
Bryan de la Cruz of the Philadelphia Phillies runs the bases against the Atlanta Braves during the seventh inning in game one of the National League Wild Card Series at Truist Park on Sept. 29, 2026 in Atlanta.
(Edward M. Pio Roda, Getty Images)
28/28
2026 MLB playoffs open with thrilling wild-card series matchups
Michael Harris II of the Atlanta Braves reacts as he scores off an RBI triple by Ozzie Albies during the sixth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies in game one of the National League Wild Card Series at Truist Park on Sept. 29, 2026 in Atlanta.
(Kevin C. Cox, Getty Images)
The Padres offense needs to stay hot
In last year's wild-card meeting, the Friars slumped over the final month of the season before bowing out quietly in three games at Wrigley Field. This time around, no team in baseball has been hotter. The Padres sat three games below .500 entering July 24; since then, they finished the season 41-18 as the core of their lineup – Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill – all found their rhythm. Tatis, who didn't break through for his first home run of 2026 until May 30, finished the season with 25 deep balls and a .828 OPS. Sixteen of those home runs came over the last two months of the season as he slashed .296/.365/.613. Simply put, he started hitting like Fernando Tatis Jr. again.
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That's the version of himself that will need to show up in this series.
Gausman injured his non-throwing shoulder on a diving tag at first base last Wednesday against theMiami Marlins. He threw a bullpen session on the final day of the regular season and is reportedly being monitored to see if he can pitch in either Game 2 or 3. Getting the 35-year-old right hander on the mound would be huge for the North Siders, who acquired him atthe trade deadlinewith the expectation of what he brings in October.
Gausman was one of the key pieces of theToronto Blue Jays' historic run to the World Series in 2025, carrying a 2.93 ERA and 0.91 WHIP with 26 strikeouts to just 11 walks across 30.2 innings in six outings. In Game 2 of the World Series against theLos Angeles Dodgers, he matchedYoshinobu Yamamotopitch-for-pitch and retired 17 consecutive batters – second-most in Blue Jays postseason history – until giving up homers toWill SmithandMax Muncyin the seventh inning.
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"Oh, man, Kev was really good," Blue Jays manager John Schneider told reporters at the time. "... They both had low pitch counts. It was kind of a classic pitchers' duel and they made a couple more swings."
How much length can the Padres get from their rotation?
The Padres have the deepest bullpen in baseball. If they can get to Adrian Morejon andMason Millerwith a lead, they can very well pencil in a win at this point. The rotation, however, has been a different story due to injuries.Michael Kinghas been the steady presence as their ace all season and if he can give length in Game 1 to let his relievers get a bit of a reprieve ahead of Games 2 and 3, it could make all the difference.
