If Patriots don’t make Super Bowl, they’ll never forgive themselves

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If Patriots don’t make Super Bowl, they’ll never forgive themselves

Matt Vautour · MassLive

Mon, Jan 19, 2026 ·

4 min read

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FOXBOROUGH — All that separates the Patriots from the most unlikely of Super Bowl runs is Jarrett Stidham .

Remember him?

After beating the Texans on Sunday, the Patriots will head to the AFC Championship where they’ll face their former fourth-round draft pick starting for the Broncos .

This is a guy who carried a clipboard behind Tom Brady for a year. The same “Stid” the Patriots pretended they were serious about making their starter after Brady left before signing Cam Newton in 2020.

He’s the quarterback who wasn’t good enough to supplant Newton when the veteran’s arm looked shot late in that season.

The guy who proved not to be the future in New England is now the present in Denver . After Bo Nix broke his ankle in overtime against the Bills, Stidham became the No. 1 quarterback for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. He should be well-rested. He hasn’t thrown a pass in a game since 2023.

All of this makes the path to the Super Bowl WIDE open for the Patriots.

Going into Saturday, just making it to the AFC Championship game would have meant the Patriots had been successful this season. Losing on the road at top-seeded Denver or to Josh Allen and Buffalo would have been disappointing, but still acceptable to anyone reasonable.

But Nix’s injury changes that.

Sean Payton can say all the wonderful things he wants about how good Stidham is behind the scenes and how ready he is for this moment.

But Stidham is not Nick Foles . He’s not Jeff Hostetler. If the Patriots play up to their standard, they should beat the Broncos and reach the Super Bowl.

Even as the Patriots have gained momentum over the course of this magical season, getting to the Super Bowl still felt like a long shot. For lots of reasons. They were young and inexperienced. They weren’t deep and they’d played a soft schedule that wouldn’t adequately prepare them for the playoffs.

And that was fine. They were ahead of schedule, being this good this soon.

Not anymore.

Now the Patriots are supposed to get there. They’ve never won a playoff game at Mile High before, but Vegas has them as a 5.5-point favorite. They don’t have to overachieve anymore. Make the short putt and collect the Lamar Hunt Trophy.

The challenge is not to think about it or get ahead of themselves. They’ve done a good job each of the last two weeks of just playing to win the game in front of them.

“Don’t make it bigger than what it is. We’re still playing football. We’re just in the tournament,” said Milton Williams , who not only reached, but won a Super Bowl with the Eagles last year. “Keep doing what we’ve been doing all year. Keep doing what we did last week and today and everything will take care of itself.

“You don’t want to look past nobody or you’ll end up getting beat,” he continued. “Focus on who we got.”

The Broncos haven’t been nearly as reliant on their quarterback play as the Patriots are, but opponents have to respect Nix. He’s got a good arm and he’s mobile, both in the pocket and when he’s scrambling.

Stidham is considerably less so.

The Broncos are going to have to pare down and simplify their offense and then adjust on the fly. They’re vulnerable and the Patriots are capable of taking advantage.

Opportunities like this don’t come along every year. It felt like that during the Tom Brady years, but realistically, next year will have a tougher schedule, different injuries and who knows what else.

When the Commanders reached the NFC title game last year, they believed they were about to begin a run of annual contention. The Lions were 15-2 last year. Both missed the playoffs. Even with all of their young talent, success next year isn’t guaranteed.

The Patriots are in prime position to advance to the Super Bowl. And they’ll never forgive themselves if they don’t.

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