Patriots’ odds for AFC No. 1 seed with 2 weeks left in regular season

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Patriots’ odds for AFC No. 1 seed with 2 weeks left in regular season

Steve Silverman, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Sun, Dec 28, 2025 ·

4 min read

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Patriots' odds for AFC No. 1 seed with 2 weeks left in regular season appeared first on ClutchPoints . Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here .

The New England Patriots have had a remarkable season, but they have more work to do in the final two games of the season against the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins . Their first piece of business is securing the AFC East title, and they can do that by winning their last two games against the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins.

However, they will only need to win one of those games if the Buffalo Bills (11-4) lose one of their last two games. The Bills face the Philadelphia Eagles and the New York Jets in their last two games.

The Patriots (12-3) have an 83 percent chance to win the division, according to The Athletic . They are 13.5-point favorites over the struggling Jets and will be significant favorites over the Dolphins in Foxboro in the season finale.

As win over the Jets would give New England an 8-0 record on the road. "It would mean a lot," said head coach Mike Vrabel , per the Boston Globe . "Winning a division game on the road. A chance to go 8-0, undefeated on the road. We know how difficult that is. That's something that we're focused on. And it won't be easy.

The Patriots' chances of finishing as the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff structure are not as good. The Broncos (13-3) won the AFC West title Saturday when the Los Angeles Chargers fell at home to the Houston Texans . Denver defeated the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day, and if they close the season with a home win over the Chargers they will have the top seed in the conference.

Much harder for Pats to earn No. 1 seed

The Broncos and the Patriots both could finish with 14-3 records and they would also have the same 9-3 records against conference opponents. However, the Broncos have the tiebreaker because the Patriots faced the easier schedule this season. The Broncos have a 59 percent chance to get the No. 1 seed and the bye in the Wild Card round, while the Patriots have just a 29 percent chance to gain the top spot.

The Patriots are far from a one-man team, and their offense has shown quite a bit of balance this season. However, quarterback Drake Maye has shown quite a bit of improvement in his second year and that is a key reason the New England has gone from a last-place team in 2024 to a first-place team this season.

Maye has completed 321 of 453 passes for 3,947 yards with 25 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions. He has also rushed for 387 yards and 4 touchdowns. Those numbers make him a legitimate MVP candidate.

The biggest issue for Maye is that he takes too many hits. He has been sacked 45 time for 200 yards in losses.

Running game has made solid contribution

Maye has gotten a big assist from the New England running game with rookie TreVeyon Henderson and veteran Rhamondre Stevenson . Henderson has rushed for 776 yards while averaging 5.2 yards per carry and scoring 7 touchdowns. Henderson hits the hole with excellent quickness, and that allows him to get to the second level and turn good gains into great ones.

Stevenson is a complementary back at this point, having run for 425 yards and 4 TDs.

Stefon Diggs is Maye's top big-play receiver. The former Vikings and Bills star has caught 76 of 93 targets for 869 yards with 3 TDs. Tight end Hunter Henry has contributed 52 catches for 663 yards with 6 touchdowns. He is an excellent red zone and third-down receiver.

Patriots' defense has gotten the job done for Vrabel

Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

New England has taken advantage of its ability to control the clock with the ground game. That has given the offense a chance to maintain possession and keep the defense from being overworked this season. The Patriots rank 7th in the league as they are allowing 20.0 points and 302.1 yards per game.

Linebacker Harold Landry has been an impact player as he leads the Patriots with 8.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss. He also has 48 tackles and 1 forced fumble. Fellow linebacker K'Lavon Chaisson has also been a key contributor with 6.4 sacks, 9 tackles for loss, 25 tackles, 2 forced fumbles and 1 fumble recovery that he turned into a touchdown.

Cornerback Marcus Jones has been a key contributor with 61 tackles, a team-leading 3 interceptions and 1 fumble recovery.

Jones has returned one of those picks for a touchdown and he also has 2 punt returns for touchdowns, including a long of 94 yards. He is clearly a big-play maker on both defense and as a special teamer, and the Patriots are going to need him to play a key role in the final two games of the regular season as well as the playoffs.

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