Experience is a wonderful thing when you have it, and it supposedly means nothing when you don’t. The Pittsburgh Penguins are making their first playoff appearance since 2022, but there are still four players in the locker room with a pair of Stanley Cup rings from the club’s back-to-back Stanley Cup championships in 2016 and 2017.
Conversely, the Philadelphia Flyers are shining their shoes for their first big dance since 2020, and it has been over 50 years since the Flyers lifted the Cup. The Vietnam War and Gerald Ford dominated headlines the last time the Flyers won, and there are exactly zero Stanley Cup rings in the current Flyers room.
While both teams began the season with the expectation of rebuilding, the soft underbelly of the Eastern Conference competition combined with career years for numerous players on both sides allowed them to elevate past the riff-raff and the surprising collapses into the postseason.
Oh, and the teams have embraced the longstanding tradition of absolutely hating each other. As a rookie 20 years ago, Sidney Crosby ate a high stick from Flyers defenseman Derian Hatcher. As blood gushed from Crosby’s mouth now missing three teeth and Flyers coach Ken Hitchcock accused him of diving, vengeance burned in Crosby’s eyes. And 21 years later, Crosby still commemorates his harsh treatment by torturing Philadelphia in a way no player in NHL history has.
In 93 career games against the Flyers, Crosby has 60 goals and 139 points.
If there is an X factor Philadelphia cannot answer, and an X factor that is entirely in the Penguins’ favor, it is Crosby. He has yearned for another playoff appearance, and the recent misses have driven him to remain a force in the league at 38 years old.
Philadelphia will try to defend him with center Christian Dvorak , who might need to pack a second lunch if he hopes to be even moderately successful.
From an offensive production, the Penguins are clearly the superior team. They finished third in the NHL in total goals, and their output over the last few weeks since coach Dan Muse moved Rickard Rakell to second-line center has only increased.
The Penguins are a dangerous rush team with a good first and fourth line that can also grind with the best.
Philadelphia doesn’t have the depth forwards or defensemen to stop the Penguins if they don’t take away the middle of the ice from the start.
Of course, that is exactly what Philadelphia must do to have a chance: take away the middle. When the Penguins have to fight out of their own zone, they make mistakes and get impatient. When teams make them fight to get between the dots, they can reflexively accept perimeter puck possession without puncturing the defense.
Coach Rick Tocchet isn’t a stubborn mule. Expect Philadelphia to make the attempt, which will put a greater weight on Penguins D-men Erik Karlsson , Kris Letang , and Sam Girard .
The Penguins defensemen will have to take strides forward, get ahead of the forecheck or–of Philadelphia recoils to a neutral zone forecehck–pressure the middle to create options for controlled zone entries on the wing.
The two other battles that could decide the series will be special teams. The Penguins have very good special teams, while Philadelphia absolutely does not.
For contextual reference, or salt in the wound, Philadelphia had the worst power play in the NHL (15.5%), and the 22nd ranked PK, while the Penguins hovered around the top five all season. Their power play finished seventh, and the PK sixth.
And there is the pesky matter of goaltending. Who has it?
Statistically, Philadelphia’s Dan Vladar had a breakout season at 28-years-old. He posted a .906 save percentage, which in the current NHL climate is almost All-Star quality. The Penguins netminders Arturs Silovs and Stuart Skinner settled at .888.
In reality, none of the three are bona fide, Grade A, No. 1 starting goalies, but Vladar is making a later-career case to be one. Skinner backstopped the Edmonton Oilers to two straight Stanley Cup Final appearances, so he knows how to win.
On paper, Philadelphia has the edge, but will Vladar stand up to playoff hockey and a series against the same team getting to pick at him for up to seven games?
Skinner will make all the saves he should, probably a few he shouldn’t, but there’s always the possibility for a softy, too.
Prediction: There is an assured confidence in the Penguins’ room. Off the record, the team knows it is their series to win or lose.
The under-the-radar Penguins players to watch are Rakell and Soderblom , who has increasingly controlled the puck and the zone with his 6-foot-8, 246-pound size. He has the chance to be the surprise hero.
The series could turn on several points, but the basic skater vs. skater matchup significantly favors the Penguins. Trevor Zegras is the Flyers’ No. 1 center and is remarkably talented, but the Penguins’ return of Blake Lizotte or a matchup with Crosby does not bode well for Zegras and the Flyers’ top line.
There is always the chance that the goaltending edge is real. And one of the young Flyers has a series to remember. It happens.
But if the Penguins’ goaltending holds up to even an average performance, it is their series, and perhaps convincingly. We like the Penguins in six, but only that many games because there is always the unexpected when these teams meet in the playoffs.
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