Penn State is up to a 9.5-point favorite over Purdue for Saturday's game at Beaver Stadium, according to DraftKings . That seems like an inflated value for the nation's 107th-ranked rushing offense and 105th-ranked run defense.
The Nittany Lions have other issues, notably a quarterback working through some stuff and their breakout receiving star initially being listed as questionable for the game. We're taking all this into account for our Week 9 Penn State on SI predictions. Here's how we think the Penn State-Purdue game will go down.
Penn State Nittany Lions head coach Matt Campbell watches from the sldeline against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Chase Fisher:Penn State hasn't woven together a complete offensive game during the Big Ten slate yet. That changes against Purdue's defense on Saturday, which allows 32.3 points and 413.1 yards per game. Quarterback Rocco Becht shines and the Nittany Lions bludgeon a weak Boilermakers secondary. Penn State 34, Purdue 24
Will Horstman:Penn State's season has spiraled, but I think it could get even worse this weekend. Purdue is more reliant on its passing game, and while that does play into Penn State's strength of its secondary, USC managed to beat the Nittany Lions by throwing the ball more. Purdue 24, Penn State 21
Mark Wogenrich:The over/under of 54.5 points suggests an offensive shootout, which seems right in an off-kilter way. Maybe it's a punch-drunk kind of game, with the teams trading blows until one makes one more mistake. Penn State, particularly quarterback Rocco Becht, has to find its way out of this funk. The Nittany Lions take a first step Saturday. Penn State 31, Purdue 25
Who will be the game's MVP?
Penn State Nittany Lions wide receiver Chase Sowell (0) makes a catch vs. Michigan Wolverines defensive back Jyaire Hill (0) in the first half at Michigan Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Chase Fisher:Rocco Becht finally gets his moment against a conference opponent. The fifth-year quarterback bursts out of his slump and throws for at least 300 passing yards and three touchdowns for the first time this season, being the catalyst in what will be a much-needed Penn State win.
Will Horstman:In an offense that hasn't looked good in Big Ten play, Penn State receiver Chase Sowell is a bright spot . He's coming off of a career-high 151-yard performance against Michigan. With receiver Koby Howard's status up in the air, look for Sowell to maintain his reliable presence.
Mark Wogenrich:Penn State coach Matt Campbell has spent the past two weeks willing Becht's confidence back, even though the quarterback has committed six turnovers in four Big Ten games. Campbell won't yield on Becht being the right quarterback to start , and Becht responds with a three-touchdown game.
Penn State Nittany Lions cornerback Audavion Collins (2) attempts to intercept a pass intended for Buffalo Bulls tight end Clint Walker (5) during the second quarter of the game at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Chsse Fisher:Defensive end Alex McPherson has steadily picked up steam over the course of the season. While he hasn't sacked the quarterback yet, he's been a consistent presence on the line and his snap count ballooned in Penn State's last game against Michigan. With a more prominent role, he finally gets to the quarterback against Purdue and supplies the Nittany Lions defense with some much-needed pressure.
Will Horstman:Penn State's Marcus Neal Jr. made the switch from safety to linebacker over the bye week, and he could immediately fix the linebacker depth issue. Neal's problem was coverage, not tackling, so it's possible he will play well in his first game at the position.
Mark Wogenrich:Purdue quarterback Ryan Browne has been one of the Big Ten's most improved players this season. He'll get his yards Saturday. But Penn State cornerback Audavion Collins, who is charging up draft boards, will limit Browne's ability to make game-changing throws. Collins also gets his first interception of the season.
Purdue Boilermakers quarterback Ryan Browne (15) hands off to running back Fame Ijeboi (2) during the first quarter against the Washington Huskies at Ross-Ade Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Chase Fisher:Purdue's rush attack has picked up steam lately. The Boilermakers have run for at least 100 yards in two straight games, including a 195-yard performance from running back Fame Ijeboi against Minnesota. Purdue outruns a Penn State team that hasn't run for more than 68 yards in a game since Week 4 against Wisconsin.
Will Hortstman:Purdue running back Fame Ijeboi has proven himself in a Big Ten game this season. Against Minnesota, he ran for 195 yards and three touchdowns on 31 carries. No Penn State running back has that type of production in a conference game yet, so the Boilermakers feel like the safer bet here.
Mark Wogenrich:Purdue's Fame Ijeboi ran for more yards (195) against Minnesota than Penn State's running backs have in their last three games combined. Even against Purdue's 97th-ranked run defense, the Nittany Lions will labor to run the ball. This has been the most surprising struggle of their season. Purdue wins this round.
What will Penn State fans be talking about Sunday?
Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Alex Manske (7) runs with the ball against the Marshall Thundering Herd at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Chase Fisher:Maybe this thing can turn around . Purdue is an ideal matchup for Penn State: not a strong rushing offense and a subpar defense. The Nittany Lions should handle the Boilermakers and give fans reason to feel hope
Will Horstman: Backup quarterback Alex Manske . So long as Rocco Becht is available to play, he is going to be the starter due to Campbell's loyalty with him. But that won't stop calls from fans for Manske to take over if Penn State loses again Saturday.
Mark Wogenrich:Is Rocco Becht back? We think Becht's "hurt" and "disappointed" tone after the Michigan game, along with a week off, will fuel him Saturday.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/pennstate as Penn State vs. Purdue Week 9 Predictions: Is Rocco Becht Back? .
