Predicting Drake Maye’s stat line in AFC Championship Game against Broncos’ ferocious pass rush

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Predicting Drake Maye’s stat line in AFC Championship Game against Broncos’ ferocious pass rush

Steve Silverman, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Wed, Jan 21, 2026 ·

4 min read

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The New England Patriots have had a brilliant season and they are in a position to return to glory if they can beat the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship game.

After finishing the 2024 season in last place in the AFC East with a 4-13 record, the Patriots were hoping for a return to respectability when they hired head coach Mike Vrabel to bring the team discipline and focus. He did just that and he also had a talented second-year quarterback in Drake Maye play with maturity and show significant improvement over his rookie year. As a result, the Patriots won the AFC East with a 14-3 record and have beaten the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans in the playoffs.

Maye is a legitimate MVP candidate, but accolades don't matter at this point. There is quite a bit of pressure on Maye to come through on the road against one of the most physical defenses in the league.

The Broncos pass rush is led by linebacker Nik Bonitto who led the Broncos with 14.0 sacks during the regular season. As imposing as that figure is, Bonitto is not alone when it comes to putting pressure on opposing quarterback. He is joined by LB Jonathon Cooper with 8.0 sacks, DE John Franklin-Myers with 7.5 and DE Zach Allen with 7.0.

That foursome has been intimidating to this point in the year, but they are likely to carry a much different attitude against the Patriots than they have all season.

The injury to Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (broken ankle) is a huge blow to the team. If Denver is going to find a way to win without their starting quarterback, it's clear the defense must dominate. That means putting pressure on Maye from start to finish.

Patriots will have to make an adjustment to their game plan

Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

Jarrett Stidham has not thrown a pass in an NFL game since the 2023 season, but he will be under center for the Broncos as they attempt to win the AFC title and earn a spot in Super Bowl LII.

Head coach Sean McVay is not going to ask Stidham to play the same game that Nix does for the Broncos because that would be reckless. He needs his defense to step up against Maye and the more explosive Patriots and then hope that a conservative gameplan will keep the Broncos in the game. He knows the Broncos offense is unlikely to survive a high-scoring game in which the two teams trade points throughout.

Maye is going to face a motivated defense, and that unit will be looking to force fumbles and deliver interceptions whenever possible. As a result, New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels may not ask Maye to play his usual game. Ideally, the Patriots can get off to a good start and get ahead by two scores. At that point, the Patriots should be able to take the air out of the ball themselves and ask running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson to carry much of the load.

The point is that they don't want to put additional pressure on Maye when the Broncos are going to dial up their blitz packages whenever possible.

Maye will have conservative passing numbers, but he must avoid turnovers

McDaniels understands that having his quarterback put impressive statistics on the board is not important in the AFC title tame. The only thing that matters is coming out of the game with a victory.

Even though the Patriots will not have to play against the Broncos' QB1, this will not be an easy task. The Patriots have never won a road playoff game in Denver (0-4), and while they are 5 1/2-point favorites over the Broncos, beating the Broncos in this game will be a major challenge.

Maye has matured quite a bit this season, and he knows he cannot force the ball into coverage or take unnecessary chances. The Patriots will have their best chance to win if Maye can complete 14 of 19 passes for 176 yards with 1 touchdown and no interceptions. He also will run with the ball 4 times for 43 yards and 1 TD without fumbling. The Broncos will register 2 sacks, but the Patriots offensive line will not allow the Denver pass rush to dominate.

If Maye is throwing the ball 25 times or more, it could indicate trouble for the Patriots in the form of turnovers. The more he has to drop back to throw, the more likely it is that the Denver defense will squeeze him and come up with sacks and takeaways.

The key for the Patriots is to not allow the Broncos to gain momentum with their defense. Stidham is limited and the best chance the Broncos have is forcing turnovers that leads to easy Denver touchdowns.

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