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Predicting the FCS Playoffs: October Edition
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- Predicting the FCS Playoffs: October Edition
The 2026 FCS season is already half over, or at least the regular season is. As October nears its midway point, the playoff typically gets clearer. While it has in some ways this year, it has also gotten more muddy in some aspects also. Chaos has not been at a premium in the subdivision this year and it makes for a playoff projection seven weeks in that is quite different than the one we put out in August during the preseason. Here's our best guess at what the bracket will look like when the dust settles next month with what we know right now:
Predicted Top Eight Seeds
1. South Dakota State
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In a season that hasn't been safe for very many of the top dogs, South Dakota State has been one of the few steady teams at the top. The Jacks have withstood big injuries and tough schedule so far to reach the midpoint with a 5-1 overall record and that only loss coming to FBS Northwestern. SDSU's defense is as good as any in the country right now as they allow just 16 points per game. The Jackrabbits have one of the best quarterbacks out there with Chase Mason but even if he can't go the offense is in good hands with backup Josh Holst and their armada of talented running backs. Josiah Johnson has 680 yards through six games and seems to be getting stronger by the week. South Dakota State is getting it done in a variety of ways in a variety of circumstances; something that national championship-caliber squads do. If they keep it up the road to Nashville will cut right through Brookings come December.
2. Tarleton State
Tarleton State is the proud owner of one of the FCS's few remaining unblemished records. Standing tall at 6-0, the Texans have found themselves smack dab in the middle of the title contender conversation and they just got through what was probably the toughest game on their slate (at Austin Peay) with a hard-fought 40-32 win. When the offense is clicking on all cylinders it's nearly impossible to stop. Whether its Tylan Hines tearing it up on the ground or Marquis Willis hauling in big plays through the air, TSU can hurt defenses in every way. Ex-Wyoming QB Kaden Anderson has been on fire as well. If the defense can hold up its end of the deal then there's legitimate reason to believe that Todd Whitten's bunch can finally get over the hump and make a legitimate run to the big one.
3. Montana State
Photo Credit - Montana State Athletics
The surprising result in Idaho earlier this month sent Montana State tumbling from its perch atop the FCS standings but the Bobcats seem to be getting healthy as they start the latter half of their season and that could spell bad news for everyone in their way. When it's at full strength, MSU is still a real threat to go the distance and, at 5-1, they have a good chance of still walking out with that Big Sky crown in hand as well as a top four playoff seed. The backups at key positions have gotten great run for the 'Cats over the last several weeks and that should only make them stronger as the starters begin to trickle their way back in. It appears that All-American quarterback Justin Lamson, running back Adam Jones and safety Caden Dowler are all set to return as early as this week. Brent Vigen is arguably the best coach in the subdivision and, while his unit had a big mishap a couple weeks back, his teams seldom do it twice.
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4. Youngstown State
The Penguins have been on a heater over the last several games, scoring an average of 44 points in each of their last three weeks. Beau Brungard is making a push to be the back-to-back Walter Payton Award winner with 2,419 all-purpose yards and 27 total touchdowns. Once again he's been Mr. Everything for the YSU offense and it's been working out rather well but he's also far from the only one making it happen. Receiver Lynn Wysche-El is one of the best in the Missouri Valley and the offensive line has been very good. The defense has also taken a big step forward from last year and that is perhaps the most significant change from 2025. Youngstown State is in prime position to snag a high seed if they can win out. There's not many teams that are built to get into the track meets that the Penguins like to force opponents into and that makes them scary down the stretch.
5. Stephen F. Austin
Just as they did last year, Stephen F. Austin is quietly stacking wins and finds themselves as one of the country's top teams. New quarterback Gavin Rutherford is lighting it up with nearly 1,500 passing yards and 15 touchdowns. Bugs Mortimer is a game-changer in the return game as well as on the outside and the defense is full of talent, especially along the line. SFA never seems to garner the full attention it might deserve but that's never been something that hindered them in the past and it certainly isn't this season. The Southland is going to be a tight race between them and Lamar but right now it's difficult to say that team who's 6-0 and sitting in the top three of the national polls won't come away with the conference title when all is said and done.
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6. Lehigh
Lehigh winning has become synonymous with Saturdays in the fall. The Mountain Hawks have a commanding lead over the Patriot League right now and have not lost a regular season game since 2024. Rich Nagy took over as head coach after Kevin Cahill left and he hasn't missed a beat. Luke Yoder is one of only two FCS running backs with over 800 yards on the ground and the defense is second in the country with just 11.8 points given up per contest. They should be favored in every game left on their schedule and, if they run the table again, there's no way they won't get a top eight seed again. The only real thing standing in the way of that might be injuries. QB Hayden Johnson has missed significant time and, while they're doing fine without him for now, they'd sure like him back as the games get bigger.
7. Montana
Montana has been one of the more interesting teams to follow this season. This unit dropped 62 on a good UC Davis team but also just got upset by Northern Arizona. That has the Griz sitting at 5-2 in Bobby Kennedy's inaugural season running the show; still good enough for a top eight seed but the room for error is non-existent now to keep that bye in play. UM's offense has been as advertised thanks in large part to superstar running back Eli Gillman. Gillman just hit 70 career touchdowns in last week's game and leads the country with 13 this season. Keali'i Ah Yat is still slinging the ball and Brooks Davis is a star in the making at receiver. The questions for Montana lie with their defense which has been gashed at times throughout this season and is only getting more depleted in the secondary as injuries pile up. If they can shore that up then they'll be a tough out come playoff time.
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8. South Dakota
The emergence of Austyn Modrzewski has been one of the stories of the FCS this season and it came at the right time for a South Dakota team that was wondering what it would get at quarterback heading into this season. The 'Yotes freshman signal caller has thrown for 1,581 yards and 19 scores this season and is showing no signs of slowing down. Mix in the resurgance of Charles Pierre Jr. at running back and a whole lot of production from the receivers and you've got a dangerous squad out in Vermillion. South Dakota put itself behind a little with a loss to Youngstown State already but there's some big opportunities to make up for it down the line. Year in and year out this team seems to find its way deep into the postseason and this time out it appears as though the same story will play out for USD.
Predicted First Round Matchups
Butler at 9. Northern Arizona (Winner to South Dakota)
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Northern Arizona is suddenly a real contender for a top eight seed and if they win out and finish at 10-2, they'll probably get one. Right now they're barely on the outside but they also just got through the toughest stretch on their schedule by far and took games against Idaho State and Montana to shake up the Big Sky. Ty Pennington is a top quarterback in the FCS and continues to show it every week. NAU has positioned itself well for a seed in the first round and should see at least one home playoff game. Butler, meanwhile, is sitting at the top of the Pioneer League and only has one loss (to Montana State). If they end up winning the conference and snagging the auto bid it would be just their second postseason trip in program history.
Idaho State at 10. North Dakota (Winner to Montana)
Until last weekend's head-scratching loss to UNI, North Dakota was looking like a legitimate national title threat. The loss to the Panthers does not negate the fact the Hawks are still on the fast track to the postseason and probably in line for at least a top 16 seed. Quarterback Jerry Kaminski did go down with an ankle injury, though, and that will certainly affect things moving forward. UND still has South Dakota State, South Dakota, Youngstown State and Illinois State on the docket and it's tough to see them getting out of that unscathed. Idaho State is also a team facing some rough waters right now. After a 5-0 start the Bengals have lost two straight. The injury bug has bitten them as well. All that being said, Jordan Cooke and that offense are good enough to finish well enough to make the field.
Illinois State at 11. East Tennessee State (Winner to Lehigh)
CHAPEL HILL, NORTH CAROLINA - SEPTEMBER 12: Will Healy of the East Tennessee State Buccaneers reacts with Josh Buckhalter #11 of the East Tennessee State Buccaneers during the second half of the game against North Carolina Tar Heels at Kenan Stadium on September 12, 2026 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. (Photo by Jaylynn Nash/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Going into this season everyone thought that the new kids on the block in the SoCon, Tennessee Tech, would take the conference. ETSU, however, currently leads the league and TTU has a loss in conference already. The Bucs seem to finally be gelling in Will Healey's second season at the helm. They've got playmakers on both sides of the ball from linebacker Dre Delinois to running back T.J. Payton. East Tennessee State is in the driver's seat and that all-important matchup with Tennessee Tech on Halloween will probably decide the auto-bid. Illinois State has been a hot and cold team. They won four in a row, including one over FBS Northern Illinois, out of the gate but have since lost to Northern Iowa and SDSU. A top eight seed is likely out of the picture but with all the talent they have on the roster in Normal, ISU should still absolutely be in the playoffs.
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Tennessee Tech at 12. Lamar (Winner to Stephen F. Austin)
Tennessee Tech stumbled a couple weeks ago and lost its first game of the year against Western Carolina. They bounced back nicely over Furman to get back on track, however. Jax Leatherwood has the offense flying high and the defense, despite its issues, has shown it can tighten up when it needs to. TTU is playing catch-up in the SoCon but still controls its own destiny the rest of the way. Lamar made the playoffs last year and has gotten even better in 2026. The Cardinals offense was, at times, anemic last season but has been a whole lot better this time around. Aidan McCown, Blake Thomas and company are 5-1 and gunning for a Southland championship. If they can get by SFA it will probably happen.
Robert Morris at 13. UC Davis (Winner to Youngstown State)
Gauging the NEC is always tough but right now Robert Morris looks like the team to beat. Carson Haggard has had a great season passing with 15 touchdowns and only three picks. Receivers Jaqai Carter and Galen Combs are a nice one-two punch on the outside also. This is a group that's seen two FBS foes (nearly beating one in Buffalo) and barely lost to a good Morgan State team last weekend. UC Davis is once again a contender in the Big Sky and, barring a big unforeseen collapse, should be playoff-bound again and host. The Aggies have one of the country's best wideouts in Samuel Gbatu Jr. and Jordan Fisher at running back isn't too shabby either. UC Davis continues to build under Tim Plough and avoids other heavy hitters like Montana State and NAU the rest of the way.
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Southeast Missouri State at 14. Austin Peay (Winner to Montana State)
Austin Peay lost a big one to Tarleton State last weekend but their playoff hopes are still very much intact. The Govs have one of the most dynamic signal callers in the nation with Chris Parson who has accounted for 1,989 all-purpose yards. Perhaps even more impressive, Parson has only tossed one interception all year. Marvin Sims and Denver Harper are extremely dangerous catching passes and they have some ball-hawking DBs as well. SEMO has as good a chance as anyone to take control of a very weak Ohio Valley Conference but there's still a lot they've left out there, too. The Redhawks will likely not be at home if they do make it in and it seems like the only way they will is if they win the league.
Stony Brook at 15. Harvard (Winner to Tarleton State)
No team in the FCS has been better at getting to the quarterback than Stony Brook. The Seawolves have 24 sacks and it's a big reason why they are undefeated in a topsy-turvy CAA. Defensive end Khalid Bueno is going crazy, logging 10.5 of those. Billy Cosh has been building for a couple of years now and it might finally be coming together. Quinn Boyd has 1,373 yards through the air. If Stony Brook can continue to handle business there's no reason they can't make the cut, especially with preseason favorite Rhode Island falling off. Harvard is the clear frontrunner in the Ivy League right now, sitting at 4-0 overall with two conference wins. Charlie Smith has taken over for longtime QB Jaden Craig and his confidence is growing by the week. The Crimson are currently ranked #17 in the polls and a lot of this group has playoff experience from last year.
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Colgate at 16. Campbell (Winner to South Dakota State)
Campbell has been maybe the biggest surprise so far this year. The Camels, who have never been in the playoffs before, are 5-1 with notable wins over Western Carolina at ETSU. Kamden Sixkiller is completing his throws at a 67.1% clip and J.J. Cowan is a threat to go the distance any time he gets the ball. He has 447 rush yards and three touchdowns. For all the reasons Stony Brook has a chance in the CAA, Campbell does as well and they don't play each other which could serve both well in the end. Colgate, too, has been unexpectedly good. Had it not been for a Hail Mary in Harvard or a late score at Central Michigan, the Raiders would be 6-0 with an FBS win. They're right there in the Patriot League and have the talent to make a real run.
