The Major League Baseball offseason is here, and the expectation is that it will be an absolute frenzy ahead of the lockout. Before we get into the thick of free agency and trade talk , though, there's an important first step to attend to: the qualifying offer.
For the uninitiated, the qualifying offer is a tool implemented in 2012 to help compensate teams set to lose crucial free agents in the offseason. It's a one-year contract, with a salary set at the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball in a given year. (This year, that number is $23.15 million, up from $22.025 million in 2025.) Teams can extend the qualifying offer to any of their free agents, provided that they have not been offered the QO before and weren't acquired midseason. If a player accepts, they return for one more year and cannot be traded without their consent until June of next season. If they decline, they become free agents, with their previous teams receiving draft compensation in return if they wind up signing elsewhere.
Among those who are not eligible include Tarik Skubal and Freddy Peralta, the top starting pitchers on the market. Luis Arraez, too, is not eligible after a midseason trade to the Philadelphia Phillies. Biut who are some names that could get extended a qualifying offer? Here's a bunch to keep an eye on ahead of Tuesday's deadline, along with predictions.
Los Angeles Angels v Seattle Mariners | Olivia Vanni/GettyImages
Arozarena has been the model of consistency and a pillar in the Seattle Mariners lineup. He can hit for power. He can hit for average. And he's coming off the best season of his career, with the slugger slashing .281/.381/.484 with a career-high .865 OPS with 26 home runs and 79 RBI in 2026.
A qualifying offer is a certainty here. His agent, Scott Boras, will not have him accept it. He'll enter free agency and be one of the top bats available, looking to turn his consistency into a multi-year deal on the open market.
Kansas City Royals v Pittsburgh Pirates | Justin Berl/GettyImages
Lowe was a tremendous trade acquisition by the Pirates and, really, may have been one of the best moves made by Ben Cherington since he got to Pittsburgh.
He was tremendous defensively. He was even better with the bat. He is an absolute lock to receive a qualifying offer, which he'll surely down in lieu of a contract in free agency that could approach $100 million. The Pirates should do everything in their power to bring him back.
Seattle Mariners v New York Yankees | Elsa/GettyImages
Bednar is one of the most underrated relievers in the game, and the fact his success translated to the Bronx will bode very well for him in free agency.
He's the best reliever on the market. He will have a ton of interest, and at 32 years old coming off a season with a 2.47 ERA, a three-plus-year contract is well within reach for =the righty. A return to the Yankees should not be ruled out. It's worth noting that he's a favorite of Pirates owner Bob Nutting, but after acquiring Luke Weaver at the deadline, the need for a ninth-inning reliever isn't high in Pittsburgh yet.
Wild Card Series - Boston Red Sox v New York Yankees - Game 2 | Mary DeCicco/GettyImages
Chisholm is immensely talented, has made two All-Star appearances and has posted an .800 OPS in two of the last three seasons. The ability is there; he just needs to do it more consistently.
I do not anticipate Chisholm being extended a qualifying offer, which will help him in free agency. A change of scenery could do him plenty of good, and I would be surprised if he returned to the Bronx next year.
Chicago Cubs v Boston Red Sox | Matt Dirksen/GettyImages
Happ has been a career Cub, spending all 10 seasons of his career with the team. He finished up the last year of a three-year, $61 million contract in 2026 and his numbers declined, hitting .218/.326/.412 with a .738 OPS and 24 home runs.
This is a super tough call, but the guess here is he does not get the qualifying offer and the Cubs elect to use that money elsewhere.
National League Wild Card Series: Chicago Cubs v San Diego Padres - Game Two | Matt Dirksen/GettyImages
This is where I expect the Cubs to use the qualifying offer instead. Suzuki is one of the top free agent bats available and will have an extensive market. I would be surprised if Chicago keeps him, so extending a qualifying offer to ensure they get some value in return makes plenty of sense.
No-brainer decision here.
National League Division Series: San Diego Padres v Milwaukee Brewers - Game One | Patrick McDermott/GettyImages
Morejon is a favorite of the Padres front office and despite significant interest, they were never trading him at the deadline unless they were beyond overwhelmed. That never came. A qualifying offer is likely, and a return to San Diego should not be ruled out considering the mutual admiration between both sides. But this has the potential to be a "wow" contract in free agency considering his track record and raw stuff. Teams love Morejon.
Texas Rangers v Minnesota Twins | Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/GettyImages
The Twins received strong interest in Jeffers at the deadline, but were adamant that they would keep him. Which tells me they had visions of extending the qualifying offer if they didn't have a new deal in place by the winter.
Jeffers will have a market as the top free agent catcher available. It is not a guarantee that he will return to Minnesota at all. And the guess here is the interest is so strong that it leads him away from the Twins.
World Series - Milwaukee Brewers v Tampa Bay Rays - Game 5 | Daniel Shirey/GettyImages
Bauers went from informing his agent he was going to retire to being a key part of the Brewers' World Series run. What a story.
After the World Series, Pat Murphy told Bauers that he was going to be rich. Spoiler alert: He's not wrong. Bauers then told Murphy that "you won't get rid of me that easily." Still, I do believe that the Brewers will ultimately extend the qualifying offer to Bauers. It's up in the air as to whether he accepts it, but the guess here is he declines it and turns it into a lucrative multi-year deal elsewhere.
Milwaukee Brewers v Baltimore Orioles | G Fiume/GettyImages
Rogers, a left-handed pitcher, had an incredibly complicated tenure with the Orioles. He went from a prized deadline acquisition to optioned to the Minors and eventually back to an impact starter in the rotation.
He's going to cash in during free agency. The Orioles will extend the qualifying offer, and maybe attempt to retain him. But he won't accept it. He'll be a free agent and have a strong market in a limited pool of starting pitchers.
This article was originally published on www.fansided.com as Predicting qualifying offer decisions for every top MLB free agent this offseason .
