We are just minutes away from kickoff in West Lafayette, as the Huskies take on Purdue in a game that could well decide the direction of both teams' respective seasons! Our staff has their predictions below.
Before the season, the idea that the Dawgs would be underdogs in this game would have seemed unfathomable. The Huskies were ranked #17 in the country and Purdue hadn't won a conference game roughly since Joe Tiller and Drew Brees played in West Lafayette. Now, the Boilermakers have won two in a row (that's a streak!) against Illinois and Minnesota- the very same Gophers team that pantsed UW at home in the conference opener. They have excelled on the back of Fami Ijeboi, a Minnesota transfer who has run 40 times for 260 yards over the last two weeks. QB Ryan Brown has shown growth, already matching last year's 9 TD passes, but doing it against a single Int after tossing 10 of them a year ago. The Husky defense absolutely must revert to their early-season form and leave last week's missed tackles and assignments in the rear-view.
Of course, the more interesting question is what UW's offense will look like. While Purdue's defense has got the job done thus far in conference play, they still rank only 104th nationally in defensive SP+. Notre Dame, UCLA, and Wake Forest averaged over 40 ppg against them in their three losses. Washington's rush offense has been DOA most of the year with sub-par blocking and RB depth that was never supposed to be forced into regular action this year. However, Demond Williams' rib injury last week brough Elijah Brown in at QB and he immediately showed better timing and an ability to read the defense that brought the passing game to life. Was Brown's success a mirage against an Iowa defense that let its foot off the pedal with a big lead? Will he backslide against a defense that spent the week preparing for him? Above all, Brown has to play within himself and avoid turnovers. Purdue has surged by avoiding turnovers and UW doesn't have enough margin for error to lose the turnover differential. Maybe I'm just looking at this game through rose-colored glasses because I can't imagine UW losing out and this looks like the best chance to win a B1G game, but I feel relatively optimistic this week.
UW 23 – Purdue 21
The conditions coming into this one are about as disadvantageous for the Huskies as possible. Coming in off a loss? Check! With a backup quarterback? Check! With the flu and injury bugs going around? Check! With a coach who cannot win outside of the Pacific Time Zone? Check and check! Add to that the fact that Purdue is coming off a blowout win against Minnesota, and you have a recipe for possible disaster.
This game hinges on 2 key factors. First and foremost, what does Elijah Brown have to offer, and can he build off of an impressive performance last week? With the lack of running game to this point in the season, a lot of the burden falls squarely on his shoulders, and while he has shown more maturity so far than Demond Williams, that's a big ask from somebody with little first team reps. Still, if he can get going and get receivers such as Roebuck and Lawson where they can make plays, that might be a recipe for success.
Secondly, can the defense hold water, after they got positively demolished last week? That unit has been really banged up, fundamentally unsound, and outcoached the past few weeks, and this is shaping up to be a get right game for a unit that has failed to live up to its potential so far. To do that, they'll need to force Ryan Browne into making bad decisions, easier said than done, to be sure, as Browne's only got 1 pick to this point in the year. They'll also need to bottle up Fame Ijiboi, who ran for 195 yards and 3 scores last week. Do I believe that we can do these things? To this point, I'm not sure. Do I believe that we can win? Well, Coach Fisch's leadership doesn't instill a ton of confidence.
Washington-24, Purdue– 35
Straight Up: Washington-1, Purdue-1
Against the Spread: Washington– 1, Purdue– 1
As always, let us know your prediction in the comments below! Go Dawgs!
