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The Purdue Boilermakers take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in University Park, Pennsylvania, on Saturday, Oct. 31. Kickoff is set for 4:15 p.m. ET on the Big Ten Network.
Penn State is favored by -8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -335. Purdue, meanwhile, enters as a +8.5 and is +270 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 54.5 total points.
Here's my Purdue vs. Penn State predictionand college football pick for Saturday, October 31.
Purdue vs. Penn State Pick: Penn State -7.5
My Penn State vs. Purdue best bet is on the Nittany Lions to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and make sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Purdue vs Penn State point spread: Penn State -8.5 (-110), Purdue +8.5 (-110)
Purdue vs Penn State over/under: 54.5 (-115o / -105u)
Purdue vs Penn State moneyline: Purdue +270, Penn State -335
Barry Odom has some momentum. For the first time in his short tenure at Purdue, Boilermaker fans can dream of a bowl game again. They need to win three of their final five games, and this one would go a long way.
Purdue has been wildly inconsistent this season. When its defense finds success, it wins. The Boilermakers are 3-0 when holding opponents under 30 points in a game.
But when they don't, it gets ugly. Opponents are averaging 44 points per game in Purdue's four losses.
Overall, the Boilermakers' defense ranks 126th in Success Rate allowed. They've been prone to giving up explosives in every variety, and there isn't much difference in their success against the run or the pass.
They need to outscore opposing teams to have a chance to win, and the question is: Will they be able to do that off a bye week in Happy Valley?
Quarterback Ryan Browne has been a revelation this year and has limited his negative plays thus far, totaling 10 touchdowns through the air to just three interceptions.
He will need to be at his best in a raucous environment against a desperate Penn State defense to keep this one within striking distance.
Matt Campbell's defense should be ready. Like Purdue, Penn State also had an extra week to prepare for this one and should feel its back against the wall after losing its fourth straight game two weeks ago.
Penn State's slide is unexpected, but a bit misleading on the surface. Its conference schedule was front-loaded, as Wisconsin and Northwestern are both much better than anticipated, and the other losses to USC and Michigan (in the Big House) are forgivable.
Three of Penn State's four losses have come by one score or less.
But if Campbell wants any job security whatsoever, this is essentially a must-win, and I expect Penn State to take advantage.
The one thing the Nittany Lions have continued to do at an elite level gives them a favorable matchup in this game.
The Penn State defense ranks 24th nationally in Passing Success Rate allowed. It's the team's best unit, and it directly addresses the one area opponents need to take away from Purdue.
Browne will be forced into difficult situations here, and while he has avoided negative plays to this point in the season, it will be hard to avoid them on Saturday against Penn State.
Offensively, Purdue is bad enough in all facets that Penn State should find something that works. The Nittany Lions are better through the air than on the ground, and they rank 53rd in Passing Success Rate.
As gross as it looks for Penn State, a rise in momentum should be on the horizon.
The Nittany Lions will be favored in four of their final five contests after a difficult portion of the schedule tanked their value in the market.
It's a good buy-low opportunity against a Purdue defense that doesn't travel well.
Add in some real game pressure for a Purdue team trying to make its first bowl game in years, and I'm siding with the home team to create some separation.
Pick: Penn State -7.5
