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Rangers need losses, not wins, to get premium pick and speed rebuild
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- Rangers need losses, not wins, to get premium pick and speed rebuild
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New York Rangers general manager Chris Drury told fans in a letter on Jan. 16 that it was time for a “retool,” though he denied the team was headed for a full rebuild.
Drury can call his plan whatever he wants. But with a second straight non-playoff season all but certain, a shallow talent pipeline and many of its top players on the far side of 30, the Rangers are in bad shape for the future.
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After the Blueshirts lost 6–3 to the New Jersey Devils at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday — a game that saw them outshot 39-18 and outplayed all night — one thing is clear: Fans should stop hoping for a winning streak. The Rangers (28-33-8, last in the Eastern Conference and losers of three straight) are playing out the string, and their future likely would be better served by losing.
They won’t finish with the NHL’s worst record — the Vancouver Canucks will. But every Rangers victory between now and April 15 hurts their odds for a high pick in the NHL Draft Lottery.
Running the Lottery Simulator
I used PuckPedia’s lottery simulator to check possible outcomes. The Rangers entered this week in fourth place with a 9.5 percent chance to win and get the No. 1 pick.
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I ran the simulator 20 times. The Rangers won the lottery four times. They finished second three times. They dropped to fifth 12 times and sixth three times.
Those results are not encouraging. A lower finish gives them a better chance at Penn State star Gavin McKenna, who’s regarded by most prognosticators as the best player available in the NHL Draft — scheduled to be held in Buffalo on June 26-27.
If the Order Stays the Same
Here is how the draft could unfold if the Rangers end up picking at No. 4:
1. Vancouver Canucks: Gavin McKenna, LW, Penn State (NCAA)
James Lang-Imagn Images
McKenna is the clear top pick. He is an elite offensive force who drives play.
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Vancouver fans will riot if GM Patrik Allvin passes on him. That includes passing on fellow Swede Ivar Stenberg.
2. Calgary Flames : Tynan Lawrence, C, Boston University (NCAA)
Lawrence is the top center in the class. Calgary wants him to spark its rebuild.
He plays fast and attacks the middle with confidence. His edge will remind Flames fans of Gary Roberts.
3. Chicago Blackhawks : Keaton Verhoeff, RHD, North Dakota (NCAA)
This is the player Chris Drury wants, but Chicago takes him instead.
Verhoeff is a big, two‑way defenseman with strong mobility. His 6‑14‑20 scoring line hides his upside. In juniors, he likely posts 20 goals and 40 assists.
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He reads the ice well and should reach the NHL next season.
4. New York Rangers: Carson Carels, LHD, Prince George (WHL)
Drury finally drafts a WHL player. Carels has climbed draft boards all season.
He skates well and plays a strong two‑way game. His puck movement will appeal to coach Mike Sullivan. Carels pushes the puck quickly and avoids turnovers.
He creates scoring chances with smart passes or accurate point shots. At 6‑foot‑2, he hits harder than expected. His defensive reads are sharp and consistent.
Whether the Rangers stay at No. 4 or fall to No. 6, Carels is a strong choice.
Rangers also own another first-round pick
The Rangers also own the better of Carolina’s or Dallas ’ first‑round pick, which was acquired by the Hurricanes in the Mikko Rantanen trade last March. The Hurricanes and Stars are among the NHL’s elite, so that pick projects to 29th or 30th at best.
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The Rangers need one of those teams to lose early in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. A first‑ or second‑round exit could move the pick up a spot or two.
If not, the Rangers should consider packaging the late first-rounder with their second‑round pick and perhaps some of their four third‑round picks to move up toward the middle of the opening round. Once you pass No. 25, you see second‑round talent. The Rangers need to restock their system with high-level talent now .
The Rangers are not fighting for wins any more. They are fighting for a draft class that can reshape their future. Every loss brings them closer to the talent they need to rebuild with purpose.
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