Ranking 2026 NBA Finals contender tiers: Why Spurs, Celtics stand out next to Thunder

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Ranking 2026 NBA Finals contender tiers: Why Spurs, Celtics stand out next to Thunder

Brett Siegel, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Thu, Mar 12, 2026 ·

18 min read

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The 2026 NBA Finals are scheduled to begin in 12 weeks. While this may seem like a lot of time, the 2025-26 regular season is winding down, and teams are beginning to solidify their status heading into the playoffs.

Although the Oklahoma City Thunder are the defending champions and still hold the best record in the league, both the San Antonio Spurs and Boston Celtics proved on Tuesday night that they, too, are in this year's title conversation.

In a featured matchup between two of the top teams in the league this season, it was Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs who claimed a 125-116 win over Jayson Tatum and the Celtics in Tatum's third game since returning from his Achilles injury .

Along with the Spurs' surge since the All-Star break, Tatum's return has been the marquee news around the NBA. Aside from the fact that he's one of the top players in the league, he returned to a team that was 41-21.

Despite many believing this would be a gap year for Boston, Joe Mazzulla and Jaylen Brown have ensured that this team would still be in the mix to contend for a championship once Tatum returned. Now that he is back, the Celtics have been the talk of the league , with some deeming them the team to beat in the East.

So, with Tatum back and Wembanyama continuing to stockpile wins in San Antonio , could the Celtics and Spurs actually stop the Thunder as the defending NBA champions? Boston will get a shot at Oklahoma City on Thursday night, albeit without Tatum in the lineup, while San Antonio will face another high-profile matchup against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets .

Are there any other teams that have a chance to actually make the NBA Finals in June? With just about one month remaining in the 2025-26 NBA season, here is a complete breakdown of where every soon-to-be postseason team finds itself as it relates to contending for a title.

Spoiler alert: If the season ended today, there are only four teams that could win it all.

Tier 1: The real NBA Finals contenders

Teams: Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Boston Celtics, Detroit Pistons

Now, I know what you are thinking: "If there are 16 teams that make the playoffs, don't they all have a chance to make the NBA Finals?"

Are we really going to play this game? Technically speaking, every team that makes the playoffs has a theoretical chance to win the NBA Finals. But we don't speak in theories here, which is why there are only four teams right now that have a realistic chance of not just making it to the NBA Finals but hoisting the Larry O'Brien Trophy in the air when the final horn of the season sounds.

Obviously, the Thunder are title contenders once again, with the best record in the league and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander , who is likely to claim his second straight MVP award . The Spurs and Celtics also join Oklahoma City on this list.

As for the fourth and final team, look no further than Cade Cunningham and the Detroit Pistons, who have sat at the top of the Eastern Conference standings since the very first week of the regular season.

Oklahoma City Thunder

All season, the defending champions have dealt with injury concerns. Gilgeous-Alexander has missed 12 games, and Chet Holmgren has missed 10 games. Jalen Williams , Isaiah Hartenstein , and Ajay Mitchell have all missed 20-plus games.

Despite all of the rotation and lineup changes for Mark Daigneault, the Thunder continue to sit at the top of the league standings and prove why they have some of the best depth in this league. Oklahoma City is once again the title favorite entering the final weeks of the regular season, even with all the injury concerns and struggles against the next team on this list.

The Thunder currently rank first in defensive rating and seventh in offensive rating.

San Antonio Spurs

Not only are the Spurs 4-1 against the defending champions this season, but they have gone 16-1 since the start of February. This team's only loss came on March 1 against the New York Knicks in one of those wacky Sunday afternoon games.

Aside from Wembanyama and his historic numbers on both ends of the court, San Antonio is elite on defense when it comes to De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle , and Devin Vassell not giving their opponents an inch of space to operate.

Some may say this team doesn't have a lot of playoff experience, which is true, yet it seems like too much attention is being cast on this minor detail. Playoff experience matters, and it should not be completely downplayed, but the Spurs are the only team in the league to rank inside the top four in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

This team has no flaws other than the fact that they have not made the playoffs over the last six seasons. Nobody should be surprised if Wembanyama takes San Antonio to the 2026 NBA Finals.

Boston Celtics

With Jayson Tatum back on the floor alongside Jaylen Brown, who is playing at an MVP-like level , and a roster that has ranked inside the top three in offensive efficiency all season, the Celtics have everything they need to possibly win their second title in the last three years.

Obviously, Nikola Vucevic fracturing a finger and being out until sometime in April hurts Boston, but the fact that Tatum is back a month before the playoffs creates such a positive mentality for this group that can't be replicated. It is the mentality that if they didn't believe in their title hopes before, they better now!

This team is led by Tatum, Brown, and Derrick White — three players who understand what it takes to win 16 games and claim a title in the playoffs. Not to mention, Joe Mazzulla is a madman and arguably the best head coach in the league when it comes to game-to-game adjustments in the playoffs.

As good as the Pistons have been, this is the team to beat in the Eastern Conference come time for postseason play.

Detroit Pistons

Defense wins championships, and the Pistons are right next to the Thunder in terms of being the best defensive team in the NBA. This team experienced what it was like to play in a big postseason series against the Knicks in 2025, and they have grown in all aspects since then.

Cade Cunningham is a real MVP candidate, Jalen Duren has emerged as one of the best two-way centers in the league, and Detroit's depth doesn't get enough credit for its success. Six different players are averaging at least 10 points per game for the Pistons this season, and that is not including key talents like Caris LeVert , Ron Holland II, and Kevin Huerter , all of whom are capable of scoring double figures.

The only two issues with Detroit, which could hold them back in a seven-game series, are 3-point shooting and foul problems as a result of that physical defense. Other than that, the Pistons can match up with any team in the East, including the Celtics, at every position.

Tier 2: Could contend, but face major questions

Teams: Denver Nuggets, New York Knicks, Cleveland Cavaliers

Fans of these three teams will be furious with them not being in Tier 1, but in reality, can they really argue with the facts surrounding their respective teams?

The Denver Nuggets, New York Knicks, and Cleveland Cavaliers are three fantastic teams. Each of these teams has picked up wins against those ranked above them this season, and they are each right in the thick of things in terms of being at the top of their respective conference standings.

However, each of these three organizations faces one major question right now, which is why it's hard to 100 percent deem them a true title contender. Let's start with the Nuggets, a team that has everything needed to win a championship on paper, but in actuality, they've never had everything on paper this season.

Denver Nuggets

Have we actually seen the Nuggets have their entire starting five this season outside of opening week? It seems like when one player gets hurt, several more hit the injury report the following day for Denver, and then when someone comes back, someone else takes their spot on the injury report.

The Nuggets simply have not been healthy all year, and as a result, they've slipped to being on the verge of the play-in region of the West standings. As good as Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are, they cannot carry this team alone, especially with the heavyweights like the Thunder and Spurs finding success because of their depth.

This is no longer a league where one player can carry his franchise to the NBA Finals, which is why Denver must be healthy come time for the playoffs. Aaron Gordon is back and rising star Peyton Watson should return soon, but will this Nuggets team actually stay healthy if they are to live up to the championship expectations placed on them throughout the first half of this season?

New York Knicks

Although the Knicks haven't dealt with the injury troubles the Nuggets have, this team has another major problem that revolves around their consistency and will to fight when trailing in games. While the Knicks have defeated the Spurs, Celtics, and Nuggets over the last few weeks, they have also lost to Indiana and the two Los Angeles franchises.

Too many times, New York is caught with its head down and feeling sorry for itself in games when things aren't going well. Unlike the top-tier teams, who consistently battle for 48 minutes, we have seen Knicks stars with negative body language in games, leading to their inconsistencies since the All-Star break.

In terms of talent, New York has one of the five best rosters in the league. However, teams have found success speeding up the Knicks in transition, and there are definitely questions to be had about Karl-Anthony Towns ' offensive impact in the playoffs. After all, he can be very hesitant at times to utilize his size for easy baskets on the interior.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Like Denver, Cleveland's health is the biggest factor when it comes to this franchise being able to take down either Boston or Detroit en route to the NBA Finals. The other factor revolves around James Harden's chemistry with Donovan Mitchell , Evan Mobley , and Jarrett Allen in such a limited amount of time before the playoffs.

Mitchell missed some time recently with a soft-tissue groin injury , and Harden is battling through a fracture at the tip of his right non-shooting thumb . Both of these injuries could flare up and cause problems at any time for the two Cavs guards.

The Cavs are certainly in a good spot, and they are right there with the other top teams in the East. But at the same time, Cleveland is 4-7 against the teams ranked in Tier 1, and three of its last four losses have come against one of those teams.

With no more chances to prove themselves on their schedule the rest of the way, the Cavs still loom as a dark-horse contender in the East that we don't have enough information about. That is why being healthy and having Harden continue to develop chemistry with his new team is essential.

Tier 3: The one-man shows

Teams: Minnesota Timberwolves , Houston Rockets

Nowadays, depth tends to stand out on rosters as opposed to one or two stars being the only focal points. Just last season, both the Thunder and Indiana Pacers made the NBA Finals not because of their star players but because of the high-level depth surrounding these talents.

For a team to win a championship, it must have adequate, reliable depth on its roster, and that's something neither the Minnesota Timberwolves nor the Houston Rockets have at this time. However, these two teams do have two of the best players in the league in Anthony Edwards and Kevin Durant , respectively.

Edwards has taken the Timberwolves to the Western Conference Finals in back-to-back years, and he seems to kick things into a higher gear on both sides of the court once the playoffs start. At the same time, Edwards is just one guy, and he ran out of gas against the Thunder last year because of the lack of depth in Minnesota.

Julius Randle has underperformed since the All-Star break and has not looked like a clear No. 2 option, and Rudy Gobert is nothing more than a big guy standing in the paint who can block shots. So that leads to the question: who will step up for the Timberwolves in the playoffs?

Will Jaden McDaniels or Donte DiVincenzo suddenly emerge as a high-level scoring option next to Edwards? Will Randle find his groove before the playoffs and actually be a 20-point-plus scorer every night? These are major question marks that are hard to ignore alongside Edwards.

As for the Rockets, they face a similar problem with Durant doing everything on offense. Not having Fred VanVleet has hurt the Rockets in big games this season, as teams have found a lot of success pressuring Houston's ball handlers and forcing simple mistakes.

Durant has been elite once again this season, and he is on his way to earning All-NBA Second-Team honors. But Alperen Sengun has disappeared on offense a lot during the back half of the season, and teams know Amen Thompson isn't a shooting threat whatsoever, so they are clogging the lane when he has the ball.

Reed Sheppard has put together a great second season in his elevated role, but he's nothing more than a secondary scorer off the bench, and Jabari Smith Jr. has been an up-and-down shooter all year.

Although Houston probably has better scoring depth than Minnesota, both teams face too many questions about who will step up alongside their All-NBA talent to be considered a true championship contender at this juncture.

Tier 4: Competitive, but definitely pretenders

Teams: Los Angeles Lakers , Toronto Raptors , Miami Heat , Phoenix Suns , Orlando Magic , Charlotte Hornets , LA Clippers

What makes a team a pretender instead of a contender? Well, for one, teams that are just now getting on a hot streak and have struggled all year aren't legitimate playoff threats.

Perhaps teams like the Orlando Magic, Miami Heat, and LA Clippers could be competitive in a first-round series, possibly pulling off an upset under the right circumstances, but the fact of the matter is these teams struggled for half the season for a reason.

Although momentum is real in the playoffs and hot teams tend to do well right away, can we really trust any of these three teams against any of the top three teams in their respective conferences?

Maybe the Clippers are a little different since they have experienced veterans who have won a championship before and they just made NBA history with their impressive season turnaround , but it's still hard to envision a scenario where the Magic, Heat, or Clippers follow in the Pacers' footsteps from a season ago.

As for the Toronto Raptors, Charlotte Hornets, and Phoenix Suns, these are simply three feel-good stories. It is looking like Charlotte will need to earn its playoff spot via the play-in tournament, but hats off to them for an extraordinary run during the second half of the year. Nobody, including the Pistons or Celtics, will want to see them in a seven-game series.

The Suns have put together an epic turnaround this season under first-year head coach Jordan Ott, and they actually are a really solid defensive team. However, their ceiling looks like what the Pistons were a season ago: a strong-willed team that can put up a fight against a real title threat but can't win four games against them.

Unfortunately for the Raptors, this team has gone from being the 3-seed in the East to being in the play-in region of the standings in a matter of weeks. Reality is catching up to Toronto, losers of six of eight games.

And then there are the Los Angeles Lakers with LeBron James , Luka Doncic , and Austin Reaves . This trio is good enough to compete with anyone, and quite honestly, this team may be better without James on the floor. Outside of these three players, though, the rest of the Lakers' roster is quite possibly the worst depth out of any playoff-projected team this year.

Los Angeles is awful on defense, struggle to shoot from the perimeter, and this is one of the worst rebounding teams in the entire NBA. These are three key statistical categories a team needs to thrive in to win a championship, which is why the Lakers are clearly pretenders this season. It would come as a major surprise if they were to advance out of the first round of the playoffs.

Tier 5: Play-In purgatory

Teams: Golden State Warriors , Atlanta Hawks , Philadelphia 76ers , Portland Trail Blazers

Four teams are destined to be play-in tournament teams this season: the Golden State Warriors, Atlanta Hawks, Philadelphia 76ers, and Portland Trail Blazers.

Once again, the Warriors and Hawks are stuck in playoff purgatory, as they will need to win their way to either the 7-seed or 8-seed in the conference, only to face a scenario where they would need to go up against one of the top teams in the league to keep their postseason dreams alive.

This has been a disastrous year for the Warriors, not just because of Jimmy Butler's ACL injury but also because Stephen Curry has not played since the end of January with right knee problems that the team has labeled as "runner's knee." Kristaps Porzingis , who was acquired in the Jonathan Kuminga trade, has already missed time with another mystery illness.

Although Golden State does have really solid depth, none of their secondary players are capable of taking over the role as an alpha for this team, leaving the Dubs with no answers right now. IF the Dubs can advance out of the play-in tournament and Curry gets rolling with a healthy roster outside Butler, they could potentially put a scare into the Thunder or Spurs in the first round.

That is a really big IF, though.

The Hawks have been playing really well as of late, and their offense, led by young star Jalen Johnson , is finding a lot of success spreading the ball around. This team is heading in the right direction, but they are still a year or two away from putting everything together and emerging in the East.

Despite only being 2.5 games back from an actual playoff spot in the East, it's hard to imagine Atlanta passing either Orlando or Miami at this point, especially with those two teams also being in the midst of their own hot streaks.

Unfortunately for the Philadelphia 76ers, they are doomed to the play-in tournament, and their season may already be over. Joel Embiid , Tyrese Maxey , and Kelly Oubre Jr. are hurting, Paul George is still suspended, and Jared McCain was traded to the Thunder for future assets. It has to be hard to be a Sixers fan right now simply because the potential was there for this team around the All-Star break.

Now, the 76ers will likely miss the playoffs and watch their first-round pick go to none other than Sam Presti and the Thunder.

And, finally, we have arrived at the Portland Trail Blazers, a team with an assortment of young and veteran players who have shown flashes of high-level play, followed by all-time low moments, like getting blown out 157-103 by Denver.

Like Atlanta, Portland is another team that is still several steps away from emerging as a real threat, and getting Damian Lillard back on the court for the 2026-27 season should help them. In terms of their status right now, though, the Blazers really only have length that can cause some problems for opposing teams' offenses, plus rising star Deni Avdija .

As far as the playoffs go, this is not enough to help the Blazers win more than a single game in a potential first-round series.

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