The Toronto Raptors (4-3) and Denver Nuggets (3-3) will square off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:00 p.m. ET from Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. The game will broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Nuggets are 4.5-point favorites on the spread against the visiting Raptors, with the over/under set at 231.5 total points. Denver is a -190 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Toronto is a +160 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Raptors vs. Nuggets predictionsand NBA picks for Wednesday, November 4.
Raptors vs Nuggets pick: Raptors +4.5 (-110)
My Nuggets vs. Raptors best bet is Toronto to cover the spread as road underdogs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
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Raptors vs Nuggets spread: Raptors +4.5 (-110), Nuggets -4.5 (-110)
Raptors vs Nuggets over/under: 231.5 (-110o / -110u)
Raptors vs Nuggets moneyline: Raptors +160, Nuggets -190
After entering the season with a 46.5-game win total , the Toronto Raptors look like an above-average team, as shown by their 4-3 start.
Somewhere, deep in the underlying data, you almost have to suspect that the bookmakers also accounted for the likelihood that their new addition, Kawhi Leonard , would probably miss his fair share of games.
Leonard played the first two games of the season with the Raptors, and they went 2-0. However, he has been sidelined for their last five outings due to swelling in his left knee.
Although the Raptors are just 2-3 in his absence, their narrow 131-125 road defeat to the Lakers really stands out.
The Lakers are off to a 6-2 start, and when you look at their Dunks & Threes Net Rating, which is adjusted for strength of schedule, Los Angeles ranks sixth with a +3.8 mark.
Just one rung below the Lakers are the Raptors at +3.5. Toronto already has two 20-point scorers in Scottie Barnes (24.4) and RJ Barrett (20.7). Moreover, Immanuel Quickley isn't far behind, as he's averaging 18 points per game.
The Raptors are one of the league's deepest teams, with 10 players averaging double-digit minutes. They'll need all hands on deck to overcome playing at altitude when they visit the Denver Nuggets .
If we turn to the Nuggets, their raw net rating of -2.9 is a slight worry, especially when you consider their 20-point home loss to the Warriors as 7.5-point favorites.
However, while their adjusted rating of +3.1 looks much better, they're still a notch below the Raptors, who are directly above them.
The biggest question surrounding the Nuggets this season is their balance. Through six games, Nikola Jokic 's minutes are up from 34.8 per game last year to 37.0, yet his scoring is down from 27.7 to 22.0 PPG.
Jokic is also averaging slightly more shot attempts (18.0), up from 17.4. As a result, his field goal percentage is down from 56.9% to 47.2%.
Jokic is now in his 12th season, and at 31, you just wonder if the miles are starting to catch up to him. Even his rebounds (9.7) and assists (9.0) are down from last year, when he averaged 9.7 boards and 9.0 assists.
But Jokic isn't the only Nuggets player whose numbers have declined. Forward Aaron Gordon (31) is averaging 11.5 points on 35.8% shooting after posting 16.2 points on 49.7% shooting last year.
The Nuggets currently have the sixth-oldest roster in the league, and as the team continues to age, you have to wonder about their succession planning and whether they even have one in place.
Although Toronto lost eight of the last 10 head-to-head meetings in this series, it went 7-3 against the spread (ATS).
I suspect part of the Raptors' success over the years has been their ability to use their rotations by throwing a ton of personnel at the Nuggets and challenging them to match their energy.
Moreover, a closer look reveals that Toronto is a perfect 5-0 ATS on the road in the last five meetings in this series.
Denver's three wins this season were against New Orleans (2) and Phoenix, two teams that rank in the bottom half for adjusted defensive rating. And when facing an opponent ranked in the top half of that category, the Nuggets are 0-3 straight up and against the spread.
Those numbers could be fairly telling, considering the Raptors' position in the adjusted defensive metric.
While it's still early, there are some worrying signs for this Nuggets team, as laying 4.5 points with the home favorites feels a bit steep. With my model assessing this number should be closer to -2.5, we're getting two points of value here to back the Raptors .
Pick: Raptors +4.5 (-110)
