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Red Sox predictions: Looking back at the good, bad and ugly from 2025
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- Red Sox predictions: Looking back at the good, bad and ugly from 2025
2025 was quite the eventful year for the Red Sox — and one that will likely dictate the trajectory of the franchise for years to come. Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony arrived, Rafael Devers departed in shocking fashion and the club, for the first time in four years, returned to the postseason. It was successful in some ways, disappointing in others ... and wildly eventful from start to finish.
As I do every year, I started 2025 with 25 predictions about the year to come for the Red Sox . I’ll run a similar predictions post with 26 predictions for the 2026 club later in the week. First, though, it’s time to look back at the good, bad, ugly and tremendously wrong (yes, No. 22) predictions from a year ago. Thanks to all of you for reading and following along for the last 365 days.
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In 2025, I predicted...
1. Alex Bregman won’t sign with the Red Sox , who will add a right-handed bat before Opening Day.Wrong. Very wrong.
But to be fair, at the time of this writing, the Red Sox didn’t think they’d be getting Bregman either. Boston was never going to give Bregman the biggest (or longest) deal a year ago but was able to land him when he chose fit over total dollars. Now, it’s a question of whether not he’ll return for Year 2 and beyond .
2. Craig Breslow makes a big bullpen splash and flexes some financial might to do so.Wrong again.
The thinking here was that the Red Sox would flex some financial muscle by adding a big-name reliever like Tanner Scott or Kirby Yates , even after signing Aroldis Chapman to a one-year deal. They’re thrilled they didn’t.
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Chapman, of course, emerged as one of the very best relievers in all of baseball. A huge win for the Red Sox in every sense.
3. The newly minted Fenway Fest draws extremely poor attendance.Correct.
Anyone who was there will tell you it felt sparse. The next version, set for January 10, should draw better with renewed interest in the club and a pretty intriguing cast of player attendees.
4. Masataka Yoshida is not a member of the Red Sox when camp breaks at the end of March.Technically wrong, but also... it kind of felt like he wasn’t a member of the team with the bizarre way the club handled his rehab.
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It was clear there was no fit for Yoshida on the roster before the Red Sox traded Devers, and though he hit well down the stretch, it’s hard to find a pathway to at-bats for him in 2026, too. This prediction may very well be recycled.
5. Garrett Crochet signs an extension before Opening Day.Correct, if we don’t get bogged down with details.
Crochet technically signed his six-year, $170 million extension a few days after the start of the season , but for all intents and purposes, this was right on the money. That deal already looks like a bargain.
6. No one else does, though.Wrong, a couple times over.
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The Red Sox also got deals done with Kristian Campbell and Roman Anthony in an effort to lock up a young core. Every team in baseball tries to do this, so credit the Sox for getting more than a handful of deals done in the last few years.
7. Triston Casas causes a stir with comments about trade rumors and/or his place on the team.This ended up being right, and it didn’t take long.
In mid-February, the always candid Casas said he thought Devers should play third over Bregman and that rookies like Anthony, Campbell and Marcelo Mayer should start the season in Triple-A . What fun that week was. It’ll be interesting to hear how he reacts to the Willson Contreras trade soon.
8. Bobby Dalbec signs somewhere in Asia.Correct. Delayed, but correct.
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Dalbec spent 2025 with three MLB organizations ( White Sox , Brewers, Royals) but did sign with a Japanese team, the Yomiuri Giants, earlier this month . Expect him to mash overseas.
9. The six-man rotation idea doesn’t happen because of the inevitable pitching injury in spring training. Correct, and an easy call at that.
In the modern game, there aren’t many teams who get through spring training without a rotation injury and the Red Sox experienced that first-hand when Brayan Bello (shoulder), Lucas Giolito (hamstring) and Kutter Crawford (knee) all began the year on the injured list. No, I didn’t have Sean Newcomb projected to make the Opening Day roster.
10. Lucas Giolito is ready for Opening Day and is an early-season star.Never wrong (except on most of these)... just early.
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Giolito suffered a hamstring strain that delayed the start of his season and was not an early-season star. He was generally very good for the Red Sox though, especially in the middle of the season.
11. Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell both start the year at Triple-A.1-for-2 is the result of this cop-out prediction.
Campbell debuted on Opening Day while Anthony came up in mid-June. It’s worth wondering if the season would have gone any differently if that order had been reversed.
12. Kristian Campbell debuts in early May, with Roman Anthony a couple weeks behind him. Marcelo Mayer ’s promotion comes in the second half.Wrong. Not only was the timing generally wrong, but also the order.
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Campbell debuted in March, followed by Mayer in May and Anthony in June. An interesting thought heading into 2026: Who’s the prospect you’re most excited to see debut? After a series of big-name ones last year, 2026 may be light on debuts.
13. Either Garrett Crochet or Walker Buehler struggles in April.Correct, though I gave myself some wiggle room here.
All the credit in the world goes to Crochet for being lights-out from beginning to end in his first season in Boston. Buehler, though, got hit hard in his first couple starts in a Red Sox uniform and never fully found his footing, leading to a release on Labor Day weekend.
14. Liam Hendriks begins the year as closer but cedes the job to Garrett Whitlock down the stretch.This couldn’t have been more wrong, really.
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Chapman ran away with the job in spring training and never looked back. Hendriks dealt with injuries again. To give myself credit, I was anticipating a big bounce-back year from Whitlock and he more than delivered on that.
15. The bullpen roster moves come fast and furious in the first half.Yes, but this is another easy call for virtually every team in the modern game.
Some of the names we saw pitch relief innings for the Red Sox before the break? Robert Stock , Isaiah Campbell , Michael Fulmer , Nick Burdi and Jorge Alcala . It’s always a revolving door.
16. Ceddanne Rafaela spends some time in Triple-A once others are promoted.Wrong.
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Rafaela had a stellar defensive season in center and won his first career Gold Glove, which was well-deserved . A red-hot offensive stretch around the All-Star break showed his offensive potential, too. A polarizing player but one who is here to stay in the majors.
17. Brayan Bello emerges as the best homegrown starter on the roster, and it’s not even close.Correct, if choosing between the group of Bello, Houck and Kutter Crawford, who entered the season in the mix.
Bello had the best year of his career, though it ended on a sour note with an early hook in the Bronx in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series. Now, the question is whether he’s the best homegrown starter in a reimagined group that includes Payton Tolle and Connelly Early .
18. Richard Fitts carves out a nice role on the big league club — or is traded as part of a big package.Kinda... and yes.
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Fitts pitched pretty well for the Red Sox in April before getting hurt and would have probably gotten a long leash to remain in the rotation had he stayed healthy. After a weird year in which he was often pitching off-schedule, he was dealt to St. Louis as part of the Sonny Gray trade last month.
19. Craig Breslow makes a major trade deadline addition at catcher.Nope.
This didn’t happen in large part because Carlos Narváez was a breakout star for the Red Sox, but Boston did poke around on catching help by inquiring about Dalton Rushing (Dodgers) and Kyle Teel (White Sox) but never pulled the trigger.
20. Triston Casas has a complete, breakout year while Jarren Duran takes a step back.Wrong – and one of the worst predictions on this list.
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Casas, of course, saw his season end after a month due to catastrophic knee injury. Duran did take a step back but that was virtually unavoidable after an otherworldly 2024.
21. The 2025 season will be Trevor Story ’s last in Boston.Wrong again.
Story bounced back in a big way last year, and though his performance was strong enough to warrant opt-out consideration, he’ll be back as the shortstop again in 2026. With Rob Refsnyder and potentially Bregman gone, Story’s leadership will be even more important.
22. Rafael Devers takes a step forward as a leader.No, really. I wrote this. What a disastrous prediction.
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Devers’ leadership was a topic of discussion entering the season because the Red Sox wanted him to take a step forward in that regard. There’s no need to re-litigate everything that led up to his June 15 trade to the Giants — we’ve done that enough on the site, podcast and X — but needless to say, things went sideways fast. Note I didn’t say which team Devers would help lead. Makes you think.
23. There will be an all-out brawl on the field, resulting in multiple suspensions.Nah, and it never got close.
The Red Sox haven’t had one of these in years.
24. The Red Sox will retire someone’s number.Wrong, like most of the rest of these.
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Boston hasn’t formally retired a number since David Ortiz ’s No. 34 in 2017. You’d think they’d find someone new soon. Roger Clemens, Jerry Remy, Dustin Pedroia and Dennis Eckersley are prime candidates. Dwight Evans, too, though a few different notables have worn No. 24.
25. Boston will return to the playoffs — but not for long. Spot. On.
I’m guessing Alex Cora accessed the January 2 story when he walked back his comments about no one believing the Red Sox would make the playoffs after the club clinched. Kidding, but just like the late, great Dennis Green once said: They were who we thought they were.
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