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How Reds have upset expectations with shocking start to 2026 MLB season
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- How Reds have upset expectations with shocking start to 2026 MLB season
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Nobody had the Cincinnati Reds circled as a team to watch when the 2026 MLB season kicked off. PECOTA projected them for just 78.9 wins , while composite projection system ATC pegged them at 79.3 victories. BetMGM set their win total at 81.5 with most sharp bettors leaning under.
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With ace Hunter Greene on the injured list and an unproven roster, the national narrative had Cincinnati penciled in for a quiet summer on the banks of the Ohio River. Instead, the Reds are 20-14 through 34 games — two games back in the NL Central — and they're doing it with a level of grit and talent that no one saw coming.
Sal Stewart Is Making History
Aaron Doster-Imagn Images
If there is one player who has been the heartbeat of Cincinnati's early success, it's 22-year-old rookie Sal Stewart, who has wasted zero time announcing himself to the baseball world. Through his first 18 games of the season, Stewart posted a jaw-dropping slash line of .323/.434/.726 with seven home runs, 17 RBIs, and a 1.160 OPS — a stat line so absurd that OptaSTATS confirmed he was the first rookie since at least 1920 to post seven home runs, 17 RBIs, 13 walks, four doubles, and three stolen bases over any 18-game span.
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Stewart hasn't just been a hot streak either. Through 34 games, he's batting .252 with nine home runs, 29 RBIs, seven stolen bases, and an .852 OPS — numbers that place him firmly in the NL Rookie of the Year conversation. His Statcast profile backs the production up too, with a 91.2 mph average exit velocity, 43.4% hard-hit rate, and a 19.2% barrel rate — elite batted-ball metrics for any hitter, let alone a 22-year-old making his first full major league season. Plugged in behind Elly De La Cruz in the cleanup spot, Stewart has given Cincinnati a middle-of-the-order presence that the league simply did not anticipate.
Chase Burns Steps Into Ace Role
When Hunter Greene went down before the season, the biggest question surrounding this Reds rotation was who would fill the void at the top. Chase Burns answered that question with authority. The 23-year-old second-year right-hander — selected second overall in the 2024 Draft — has quietly become one of the most dominant young starters in the National League.
Through seven starts this season, Burns owns a sparkling 2.20 ERA with 46 strikeouts in 41.0 innings, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 3-1 record. His best outing came on May 3 against Pittsburgh , when he twirled seven shutout innings, allowing just three hits while striking out seven on only 94 pitches.
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What makes Burns so dangerous is his ability to generate weak contact and work deep into games — a necessity for a Reds bullpen that has been stretched at times. Through his first five starts, he posted a 2.57 ERA with 30 strikeouts in 28 innings, even while being eased into a larger workload. With Greene sidelined, Burns hasn't just filled a rotation spot — he's become the unquestioned ace of this staff.
Elly De La Cruz Ties it All Together
No conversation about Cincinnati's surprising start is complete without acknowledging the evolution of Elly De La Cruz. The 24-year-old shortstop — entering the season with +3000 MVP odds and an expectation to be "good, not great" — has been the engine of this lineup.
Through 34 games, De La Cruz is batting .271 with 10 home runs, 25 RBIs, eight stolen bases, a .349 on-base percentage, and an elite .890 OPS. His wRC+ of 141 means he's been 41% more productive than the average MLB hitter in 2026 — a superstar-level number.
What's most encouraging is that De La Cruz has cleaned up his strikeout issues while maintaining his power-speed combination. The Reds were projected to be a .500 ballclub at best, but with Stewart raking, Burns dealing, and De La Cruz finally putting it all together, Cincinnati has become one of the most compelling stories of the 2026 baseball season — and they're just getting started.
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