If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google .
The Toronto Blue Jays host the Cincinnati Reds on September 26, 2026. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 3:07 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SNET.
The Blue Jays are favored by -168 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Reds are +138 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Reds vs Blue Jays predictionbelow, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Reds vs Blue Jays Pick: Blue Jays ML | Bet to -160; Blue Jays TT Over 4.5 Runs | Bet to +105
My Reds vs Blue Jays best bet is on Toronto to win outright and to record over 4.5 runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page. Be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Reds vs Blue Jays moneyline:Reds +138, Blue Jays -168
Reds vs Blue Jays over/under:8 (-103o / -117u)
Reds vs Blue Jays spread:Blue Jays -1.5 (+133), Reds +1.5 (-161)
| Rhett Lowder (RHP, CIN) |
Stat |
Trey Yesavage (RHP, TOR) |
| 6-12 |
W-L |
5-5 |
| 1.2 |
fWAR (FanGraphs) |
1.3 |
| 6.01/5.49 |
ERA / xERA |
3.67/3.35 |
| 4.76/4.86 |
FIP / xFIP |
4.13/4.58 |
| 8.1% |
K-BB% |
12.2% |
| 40.9% |
GB% |
33.3% |
| .313 |
BABIP |
.213 |
| 87 |
Stuff+ |
108 |
| 104 |
Location+ |
90 |
This may not be a game that matters for much on Saturday, but it won't be affected by weather and we know who's pitching, which seems to be half the battle for this slate of games.
Rhett Lowder has been smoked for 33 runs over his last 33 innings, allowing 11% Barrels/BBE with a 6.3 K-BB% and just 37.6% of his contact on the ground.
Aside from a 4.30 Bot ERA (93 Pitching+), he doesn't have another estimator below four and a half this season, while batters from either side of the plate have exceeded a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him with LHBs within four points of .370 by either metric.
There are simply no positives to be found in his profile. He hasn't had a single start with a SwStr exceeding 8.4% since July.
The projected Toronto lineup (I'm using a combination of BARTOLO and Rotowire today with some occasions failing to acknowledge platoon issues for unconfirmed pitchers, so please bear with me) has not hit for much power against RHP (the story of their season) with an average .130 ISO against them, but a 104 wRC + on the road, 106 wRC+ vs RHP and 103 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
There are below average seasons in this lineup, of which Vlad Jr. is certainly the disappointment with an 84 wRC+, but no automatic outs with Andres Gimenez 's 83 wRC+ vs RHP being the low bar.
The projected Cincinnati defense is strong throughout their non-1B infield spots (13 FRV), but poor just above everywhere else for a combined -6 FRV (Fielding Run Value).
The Reds come into the weekend with the 4th worst bullpen estimators over the last 30 days with a 5.08 FIP, 4.75 xFIP and 4.18 SIERA. BARTOLO ranks them just 24th on the season.
Trey Yesavage will be starting this game, but faced just seven batters in his return from a month and a half long IL stint without being able to rehab fully at the minor league level. With 40 pitches thrown, perhaps he gets to around 55, which would get him between three to four innings.
Failing to live up to the ridiculous standard set by his post-season heroics, in his true rookie season (2026), Yesavage's 3.67 ERA did align well with a 3.40 ERA in 18 starts because he allowed just 6.1% Barrels/BBE with a 34 HardHit%, though all other indicators exceed four, including a 4.74 Bot ERA (97 Pitching+).
The 23.9 K% was fine and even a bit light, considering the 13.5 SwStr%, but he failed to obtain a lot of called strikes (14.6%) and saw too many ball fours (11.7%) before strike three.
Still, batters from either side of the plate remained below a .310 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Five of the projected nine Reds sit between a 98 and 114 wRC+ against RHP this season. At more extreme ends are Elly De La Cruz (129) and then the remaining three below 55. This lineup averages an 85 wRC+ both on the road and against RHP, while being slightly worse over the last 30 days (81 wRC+).
The Blue Jays remain a top defense in this league with Saturday's projected starters having accumulated 33 FRV.
Despite an ERA below three, the Toronto bullpen has been only middle of the league over the last month with a 4.15 FIP, 4.06 xFIP and 3.92 SIERA combination, while running a .253 BABIP with an 81.7 LOB%. BARTOLO ranks this unit middle of the league as well (13th).
Whether it's Yesavage or the Toronto bullpen, I project both to have large edges over their Cincinnati counterparts on Saturday (three quarters of a run for the starters, two-thirds of a run for the bullpens), while giving the Toronto offense around a 15 point wRC+ edge.
Add in the potential near 40 FRV defensive edge and I make the Blue Jays nearly 2-1 favorites here.
However, who knows what might happen in a meaningless game with Yesavage only projected for three to four innings? I'm opting to split a unit between two pieces that are popping here, which are the Blue Jays full game and the Toronto team total.
Pick: Blue Jays ML | Bet to -160; Blue Jays TT Over 4.5 Runs | Bet to +105
