Story by
ROUNDTABLE: Northwestern men’s basketball season predictions
- Story by
- ROUNDTABLE: Northwestern men’s basketball season predictions
Ladies, gentlemen, basketball season is here.
On Monday we embark upon a five month national journey, with our sights steadfastly set on what in basketball, is both a physical and temporal end: March.
For Northwestern, the season will tip off at 7 p.m. CDT at Welsh-Ryan Arena against Binghamton. The 'Cats will debut a lineup full of new faces and uncertainty and begin their quest to make it back to the NCAA Tournament.
With NU's season set to take off in just a few hours, here are the Inside NU staff's official predictions for the season ahead:
Advertisement
Zac Penson:10-22 (3-17 B1G) — Last in B1G
MVP: Jake West
MIP: Phoenix Gill
Most Impactful Newcomer: Jack Karasinski
The air was sucked out of the stadium when Iowa State went on what felt like a 30-6 run in the middle of the first half. Maybe this is what a Northwestern basketball team without Nick Martinelli is like. I hate to be so negative about this season, but I just don't see this basketball team going anywhere. The 'Cats looked on par with Illinois State and nowhere close to where it needs to be in order to be ready for Big Ten play. If there was anything redeeming about the exhibition game last week, it was that Jake West can really score, posting 21 points and shooting 4-for-9 from three. The team seemed to have found their footing slightly in the second half, but the game was far gone by that point.
Advertisement
Phoenix Gill got a significant chunk of playing time compared to last year, posting four points, all of which from the free throw line, in his 13 total minutes on the court against the Cyclones. Angelo Ciaravino's long range shooting hasn't really improved much from last year either, but he is still a monster by the rim. The player I am most excited for (if I can be excited about anything) is Jack Karasinski. A transfer from Bellarmine, he had a nice performance in exhibition season posting 11 against Iowa State. I originally was excited for BYU transfer Aleksej Kostic, but with only two points in his 12 minutes in the court and 1-for-7 from the field, his minutes will likely become more limited as the season drags on.
This might be a tough year.
Charlie Jacobs:9-23 (2-18 B1G) — Last in B1G
MVP: Jake West
Advertisement
MIP: Jake West
Most Impactful Newcomer: Jayden Hodge
This team was ransacked by the transfer portal this past offseason, and the showings in both exhibition games have been lackluster to say the least. With only three returners (and one of them being arguably the best player last season not named Nick Martinelli), it's a given that Jake West gets the MVP nod. He's going to be THE GUY on this team, and the season will hinge on whether or not the others can help him. For MIP, there are only three choices in my mind, those being the three returners. West will likely take the biggest jump of all three because of his elevated role into being THE GUY, like I said before. As for newcomers, if Jayden Hodge is healthy this season, he will almost certainly be among the best on this team. He will miss the beginning of the season, but if he can provide the impact that he was recruited for, then the ceiling for this team raises ever so slightly. Yes, exhibition games are exhibitions and not real, but it's not a pretty start for the Wildcats and it could be a very long season.
Eliav Brooks-Rubin:12-20 (5-15 B1G) — 15th in B1G
Advertisement
MVPs: Aidan Chiles, David Braun and the rest of Northwestern football
MIP: Jake West (also my actual pick for MVP)
Most Impactful Newcomer: LA Pratt
It's never a great sign when the consensus team MVP averaged 5.3 points per game the year prior, but here we are. There just simply isn't a ton of talent on this roster, as evidenced by three projected starters transferring in from teams ranked between 270 and 290 last year on KenPom. The three major analytics sites (KenPom, Bart Torvik, EvanMiya) have the 'Cats between 74th and 98th preseason.
Northwestern will be the less talented team in every conference game they play, excepting their trip to State College. Offensively, Jake West projects to have the ball in his hands over 30 minutes a night. He could be the next point guard phenom at Northwestern if things pan out, but it might be a year too early to ask that of him. With a leap from West, Northwestern's offense should be decent. Pratt and Ciaravino will pressure the rim and there's enough shooting from Karasinski, Kostic and Smith that this side of the ball isn't too concerning.
Advertisement
The defense and rebounding are going to be serious problems. The 'Cats don't project to have a single above average defender, with some major athleticism issues on the wing and inside. Expect Collins to pack the paint and allow a ton of open threes to minimize the easy points at the rim. And don't be shocked if Northwestern plays to one of the 20 or so slowest paces in the entire country, a classic Collins trick to make up for talent deficit.
I don't think NU will be as bad as some of my colleagues, mostly because I believe Collins is an excellent basketball coach, especially at making up talent gaps. But the roster outlook is bleak and I have a hard time envisioning a scenario where Northwestern gets to .500.
Enjoy football season until it's over and then start counting down the days until the Lake Show.
Donovan West:10-22 (2-18 B1G) — Last in B1G
Advertisement
MVP: Jake West
MIP: Angelo Ciaravino
Most Impactful Newcomer: Jayden Hodge
The product put on the court this season by Northwestern is not going to be pretty. I think the two exhibition losses to Illinois State and Iowa State certified that. The question will be just how bad the 'Cats are. It's a team full of non-Big Ten players trying to piece things together around a coach who is starting to come under fire for an inability to construct competitive rosters.
Northwestern's schedule makeup also isn't conducive to success. While teams full of emerging young players and inexperienced transfers typically take time to mesh and reach their potential fully, the 'Cats will need to figure things out almost right away. Six of Northwestern's first seven opponents finished last year with a .500 or better record, and, despite many of those teams being in non-Power Five conferences, squads like Boston University and Stony Brook are sneakily challenging games that people will only talk about if NU loses them. The 'Cats' easier games come early in their schedule, when they're still dealing with growing pains, while they'll play, and likely lose to, giants like Michigan State and UCLA when things finally start to come together.
Advertisement
That being said, Jake West should have a monster year. Angelo Ciaravino and first-year Jayden Hodge will be elite complementary pieces, but this season is all about West. His passing will be on full display, and with more freedom to shoot, West will fire from all angles. He flashed immense potential last season and is, quite frankly, one of the only reasons to reserve hope for Northwestern's 2026-27 campaign. Yet the cherry on top of the disappointing season will be when West announces he is transferring from Evanston after averaging 15 and 8, only to finish last in the conference.
Drew Christmann:10-22 (3-17 B1G) — Last in B1G
MVP: Jake West
MIP: Angelo Ciaravino
Advertisement
Most Impactful Newcomer: Colin Smith
Replacing the Big Ten's leading scorer over the past two seasons, Nick Martinelli, is no easy task, and two preseason games did nothing to ease those concerns. Northwestern dropped both exhibition games, starting with a 70-64 loss to mid-major Illinois State, then a complete dismantling at home a week later, 94-59, by No. 18 Iowa State. The leading statistical preseason rankings are already skeptical. Bart Torvik was the most optimistic, ranking Northwestern 74th (14th in B1G), KenPom in the middle at 89th (last in B1G) and Evan Miya having the Wildcats all the way down at 98th (17th in B1G, Penn State at 102). I believe the Wildcats will handle their buy games at home, with Rutgers and Penn State being the conference wins on the road, and I went a little crazy with an upset win over Wisconsin at Welsh-Ryan, who I believe will struggle after losing John Blackwell to Duke.
For my awards, it's clear this is undoubtedly Jake West's team. West has led the offense in both exhibitions, scoring 14 points and adding seven assists in Normal and 21 points against Iowa State. I'm looking forward to the Philly native's second-year jump. With a more secure spot in the starting lineup, I expect improvements from Ciaravino and be able to grow into a co-star role behind West. While Jack Karasinski has looked good in the two games, I'm most excited to see how Colin Smith fairs. The 6-foot-8 UC Santa Barbra is a plus-defender with great rim-protection and is a very reliable on catch-and-shoot threes, a great complimentary piece for West's playmaking. I like him to fit in at the four-spot alongside McEldon, or be a good boost as a sixth man off the bench.
The record will be far from pretty, but what matters most is how West and Ciaravino progress so Collins can build towards a brighter future for the program.
Advertisement
Adam Sutro:10-22 (4-16 B1G) — 16th in B1G
MVP: Jake West
MIP: Jake West
Most Impactful Newcomer: Colin Smith
I think this team will have some fun storylines.
I expect Colin Smith to be NU's glue guy this year, combining a strong 6-foot-8, 220-pound frame with a pure outside shooting stroke (over 40% from three last two seasons). Smith, who played the first two seasons of his college career at Vanderbilt, has Power Five playing experience that is rare on this roster and will be valuable to this team in the early going. There's also the two first-year recruits — Jayden Hodge and Symon Ghai — who both have a lot of raw physical talent… it will be exciting to see them develop and, hopefully, carve out a role for themselves on this roster as the season goes on (once Hodge is back from injury).
Advertisement
And then there's Jake West, who is set for a big sophomore season jump. Last year, West finished his freshman year with per game averages of 5.3 points, 0.8 rebounds and 2.3 assists. With him being one of the only returners on this roster, people forget that for a lot of last year he didn't have a big rotational role. As we already saw in the preseason, this year West will have the green light from day one. West fired 11 field goals against Illinois State and 16 against Iowa State, reaching double-digit field goal attempts in back-to-back games for the first time in his career. His 16 shots against Iowa State were his single-game career high, though he only played 31 minutes. Though I think the sophomore's efficiency might go down taking some harder shots, West is going to be this team's leader in scoring and assists and he will be one of the Big Ten's best true point guards.
As for the team, my outlook is much less optimistic.
I was in Welsh-Ryan Arena for Northwestern's 35-point exhibition loss to Iowa State. And, it was clear, seeing all of NU's new guys for the first time on the same court as a legit, Power Five tournament team, that the 'Cats just don't have the level of talent or skill to be a competitive Big Ten team. Iowa State's guys were noticeably bigger, faster and stronger, while being more skilled shooters and scorers. And, though as I wrote in my gamer for that loss , I do believe that as the season goes on, Collins' squad will figure out how to play together, the talent on this roster sets a low ceiling for the team… and that's going to be hard for the intangible effects of team chemistry and coaching schematics to overcome.
I'm predicting eight non-conference wins against Binghamton, Stony Brook, Boston University, Columbia, Northeastern, Mercyhurst, Chicago State and Oklahoma State and four Big Ten wins against Penn State, Rutgers, Oregon and Nebraska.
It's going to be a long season for the 'Cats.
