The vibes were wonderful when the San Francisco Giants re-acquired reliever Camilo Doval the final week of the season.
He returned to the Bay Area after more than a year away playing for two other teams. He professed his desire to stay beyond this season. He struck out the side in his first inning back, fanning Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Shohei Ohtani in the process.
San Francisco controls Doval's rights for 2027. What they believe they can afford in salary arbitration will decide if Doval returns.
San Francisco Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey. Credit: Robert Edwards-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
MLB Trade Rumors published its annual salary arbitration projections for 2027, which is built off a model created by Matt Swartz. The numbers are not "the law" when it comes to how arbitration will turn out. But Swartz's numbers tend to be close to where they end up.
San Francisco has nine players that are eligible for salary arbitration. Per Swartz, the projected bill is $18.4 million. The projections are based on a variety of factors, including service time and career numbers. Doval has been in the Majors for five seasons, been an All-Star closer and had two 30-save seasons. Not surprisingly, the projections have him making the most of any Giants player facing arbitration.
The projections have Doval making $6.6 million in 2027. That would be more than one-third of what the Giants are projected to pay in arbitration money. That will likely cause some pause on San Francisco's part, especially since the arbitration process won't start until January - assuming a new collective bargaining agreement is in place.
Per Spotrac , the Giants have $160.1 million in adjusted payroll wrapped up in eight players. Without knowing what the financial system will look like, a $6.6 million projected salary for Doval might be nothing - or it might be something.
But given how bad San Francisco's bullpen was in 2026, it might be worth paying Doval the projected figure given his track record. President of baseball operations Buster Posey said after the season that he underestimated what they had in the bullpen and it cost the Giants dearly. He can't afford to be short-handed again.
Posey said the team is already talking about it, but that Doval's tendency to walk hitters concerns him. It's a valid concern. He walked more than six hitters per nine innings. During his All-Star season in 2023, that rate was half.
Whether he returns will be driven by several factors, not the least of which will be the amount San Francisco will have to pay in arbitration. Posey is the one that must decide if the cost is worth it.
This article was originally published on www.si.com/mlb/giants/onsi as Salary Arbitration Will Test Giants' Commitment to Keeping Camilo Doval .
