West Virginia heads to Lubbock this weekend for a late-night kick against No. 15 Texas Tech, looking to pick up win No. 6 of the season and secure a spot in the postseason. Can they pull off a stunner in West Texas?
Here is how we see this one going down.
The Mountaineers found some success defensively two weeks against TCU, but it wasn't really a formula you can lean on every week, considering every single one of the Frogs' possessions finished on West Virginia's side of the field.
In order to win this one against Tech, they are going to have to get some quick stops and maybe even a few three-and-outs. The bend, don't break philosophy is okay from time to time, but having that mentality for the entire game is dangerous, especially against this team who is more explosive with Thomas Castellanos taking over at quarterback.
Speaking of the quarterback, I think if Will Hammond had started and played the entire game, West Virginia would have had a really good chance to pull off the upset. He has struggled all year and doesn't have the same escapability that Castellanos has, which is going to be problematic for a struggling defense.
If Castellanos makes things happen with his arm, it's going to be a long night for the Mountaineers because we know the rushing duo of J'Koby Williams and Cameron Dickey will do their thing.
I do think there is reason to believe the offense will have a better outing than they did in Fort Worth, mostly because Tech's vaunted run D has not played well against teams who run the ball effectively . Mike Hawkins Jr. and Cam Cook do enough to put the Mountaineers in position to win, but the defense reverts back to giving up several explosives. Texas Tech wins comfortably.
Texas Tech hasn't looked as good as last season, yet it still sits 7-1 heading into November. Coincidentally, the Red Raiders lost in game seven of last season before running the rest of the schedule for the program's first Big 12 championship.
Tech will need help to return to the Big 12 Championship Game with the lone loss and can get it in the Holy War if Utah beats BYU. The game kicks off at noon, and the Red Raiders may start looking ahead to the road matchup at Oklahoma State next week. Potential trap.
Enter West Virginia. The Mountaineers are coming off a much-needed bye week and enter the weekend after winning back-to-back games.
The intriguing story with this group is that when the entire fanbase was, and for the most part still is, wanting defensive coordinator Zac Alley fired, Rich Rodriguez, staff, and players got to work. The coaches stayed late, and the players never wavered.
The defense still gave up a ton of yards but got off the field in the fourth quarter when the stakes were the highest. Considering the high roster turnover from a season ago in just year two, it's fair to ask them to just give the offense a chance to win the game, and they did.
Mike Hawkins Jr. and Cam Cook have been a joy to watch, and you can add DJ Epps and the recent addition of Prince Strachan to the list. The offense has been potent but will go up against the top rushing defense in the league. However, the pass defense hasn't been as effective as it was a year ago, and this could open the door for an explosive night for the WVU offense.
With the defense struggling, ranking near the bottom of college football in nearly every single statistical category, coupled with the potential of a trap game for Texas Tech, this game may be closer than the experts think.
It's hard to imagine this game being close, but I wouldn't count this group out. Rodriguez has late-season heroics on his resume, and he's done it before at WVU.
I don't think the Mountaineers have enough to pull off the upset, but I believe this contest is closer than the experts think. Texas Tech constructs one final scoring drive late to put the game away. Red Raiders stay alive in the Big 12 race with a 41-31 victory.
When these two teams met last season, it was an ugly one, to say the least. However, things look much different for both of these programs less than a year later.
The Mountaineers are a much better team overall, especially offensively. Mike Hawkins Jr. and Cam Cook give the Mountaineers one of the best rushing attacks in the entire country. That alone gives them a chance to beat anybody on any given Saturday. That being said, the Red Raiders might not have the firepower they had last year, but they are still a quality team that is very much in College Football Playoff contention.
The key for the Mountaineers is always going to be their defense. We can reasonably expect their offense to put them in positions to win, but will their defense do enough to stop the Red Raiders? The Red Raiders currently have the 10th-best offense in the Big 12, averaging 425 yards per game. The Mountaineers have given up 483.9 yards per game this season, which is, of course, the worst mark in the conference. The Texas Tech defense ranks 11th in the conference, which makes me wonder if the Red Raiders are a bit overrated heading into this game.
Despite the Red Raiders having their own issues as far as who could be playing quarterback for them, I still believe they are the more talented team, particularly on defense. I'll take Texas Tech to stay alive in their quest to defend their Big 12 Championship with a big home victory over the Mountaineers under the lights.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/westvirginia as Score Predictions for West Virginia at No. 15 Texas Tech .
