Seahawks vs Broncos Predictions, Odds, Picks, Thursday Night Football Props

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Seahawks vs Broncos Predictions, Odds, Picks, Thursday Night Football Props

Reuters/Imagn. Pictured: Sam Darnold, Bo Nix.

Sean Koerner · Action Network

Thu, Oct 15, 2026 ·

10 min read

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The Seattle Seahawks (3-2) and Denver Broncos (3-2) battle tonight on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colo. The game will stream on Prime Video.

Seahawks vs Broncos oddslist the Seahawks as -148 moneyline favorites and the Broncos as +126 underdogs. The over/under is 40.5 (-115o / -105u). The Seahawks are 2.5-point favorites on the spread (Seahawks -2.5; -115).

Let's get into my Seahawks vs Broncos picksand Thursday Night Football props. You can also find the latest odds, inactives, betting trends, weather forecast and more.

Seahawks vs Broncos pick: 1st Half Under 20.5

My Seahawks vs. Broncos best bet is the first half under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.

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Seahawks vs Broncos Odds

Seahawks vs Broncos Moneyline: Seahawks -148, Broncos +126
Seahawks vs Broncos Over/Under: 40.5 (-115o / -105u)
Seahawks vs Broncos Spread: Seahawks -2.5 (-115), Broncos +2.5 (-105)

Thursday Night Football Preview: Keep Eyes on JSN, Bo Nix

When the Seahawks Have the Ball

The Seahawks offense this year has looked pretty similar to the one that won the Super Bowl despite Klint Kubiak leaving to become the head coach of the Raiders .

Scoring has dipped a little from 29.2 points per game to 26.8, which I mostly expected between natural regression and losing Kubiak, but the passing game still runs almost entirely through Jaxon Smith-Njigba , who is having another monster season. That's why the ankle injury he suffered in Week 5 is worth mentioning even though he's off the injury report and good to go tonight.

Smith-Njigba picked up the injury late in the game against the 49ers and it definitely looked like it bothered him on a pretty uncharacteristic drop near the end of the game. While there's no concern about him playing, it's fair to wonder whether he's truly 100% on a short week.

That matters because there may not be another receiver in football whose offense is more dependent on him right now.

Denver's secondary injuries help Seattle's cause. Patrick Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga are both out with ankle injuries while Riley Moss is questionable.

With Surtain and Moss out last week, a Denver defense that normally loves playing man suddenly used zone at one of its highest rates of the season. Hufanga has also been much better in coverage than against the run, so his absence gives Sam Darnold a boost.

But even with the matchup getting easier through the air, I'm not sure Seattle wants this game to turn into a high-volume passing game if Smith-Njigba is even a little less than 100%.

The Seahawks' run game is also much different now. Emanuel Wilson has become the clear lead back and is more of an early down grinder who is probably going to stack up a bunch of 3-4 yard runs rather than rip off explosives the way Kenneth Walker could.

Without Walker and Zach Charbonnet , who could potentially make his season debut next week, the run game just doesn't have the same juice as last season. First-round rookie Jadarian Price also struggled early before landing on IR.

The good news is Denver's run defense has taken a step back and has become more of a run funnel. If Smith-Njigba is even a little bit hampered, I could see Seattle staying patient, leaning on Wilson and playing into what already looks like a close, lower-scoring TNF game.

When the Broncos Have the Ball

The Broncos side is probably even more interesting because Sean Payton took back playcalling duties last week after letting offensive coordinator Davis Webb handle it early in the year.

Denver had been fairly pass heavy at +2.9% Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE), but in Payton's first game back calling plays that nearly flipped to -2.6% PROE.

Basically, he took the ball out of Bo Nix 's hands a little bit.

Maybe that was just matchup specific against the Chargers , but Nix's biggest superpowers in his career have been avoiding sacks and turnovers — it almost felt like Payton decided the best way to help him was to simply ask him to do less and lean on the defense more.

Nix has also become a much more conservative passer. His 6.0-yard aDOT is a career low, only 8% of his throws have gone 20+ yards downfield (also a career low), and he hasn't been scrambling as much either.

This is just a much more conservative version of Nix than we've seen before, and ultimately he may be the root cause of some of Denver's offensive struggles.

The Broncos' run game hasn't exactly bailed them out either despite having one of the better offensive lines in football.

And now they get Seattle.

The Seahawks have been stout against both the run and pass and rank second in pressure rate, which is a pretty brutal matchup for Nix considering he ranks 27th out of 31 qualified QBs against pressure this year.

Leonard Williams and Drake Thomas are both questionable with ankle injuries, so there are a couple outs here. Williams being out would obviously make life easier on Nix, while Thomas being out could help the struggling run game a bit.

But it's hard for me to suddenly project a Broncos offensive breakout here.

If anything, on a short week against the reigning champs and arguably the best defense in football, I think Payton is even more likely to stick with the conservative approach and lean on his defense.

Thursday Night Football Predictions, Betting Analysis

Seahawks -2.5 would be my lean on the spread because I think they're the better team on both sides of the ball right now, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba is so important to the offense that even the possibility that he's not 100% on a short week makes me less interested in laying points.

The under is cleaner, but I specifically prefer the 1H Under 20.5.

Both offenses have been sluggish early this season. Seattle is averaging only 10 first-half points, which ranks 20th.That might actually be one of the areas where losing Klint Kubiak has shown up the most.

Seattle ranked sixth in first-half scoring last year — Kubiak took over a Raiders offense that ranked dead last in first-half scoring last year and now has them 13th. I don't think that's all coincidence.

First-half offense is more scripted and can be more influenced by the offensive coordinator/playcaller than what we see after halftime once teams start adjusting.

The Broncos been even worse. They rank last in first-half scoring at 4.6 points per game.

Last week, they showed some improvement with Sean Payton calling plays, but it was still only 10 first-half points against a winless Chargers team. Seattle is a much tougher test.

I also like isolating the first half because if one team gets down multiple scores, the second half could get much more volatile. And in what should be a close, lower-scoring game, overtime is probably a little more likely than your average matchup too. The first-half under avoids that risk completely.

But there's one other part of this handicap I'm probably way too excited about: the punters.

Sometimes you can cap both offenses perfectly, they struggle exactly like you expected, and the under still gets torched by a random special-teams TD or a huge punt return setting up a free score. That matters tonight because Marvin Mims Jr. and Rashid Shaheed are two of the most dangerous punt returners in the NFL. Both ranked top five in yards per punt return last year — Mims is still top five this season.

Fortunately, they're facing maybe the perfect punters to neutralize them.

Seattle had coverage issues last season, so Michael Dickson actively changed his punt angle to create more hang time at the expense of distance. He's taken that to an extreme this year and has also gotten ridiculously good at angling punts out of bounds or having them downed. The result is an absurd 15% punt return rate, by far the lowest in the league.

And somehow, the three punts that have actually been returned against him have produced ZERO return yards. I went back and watched a handful because I couldn't believe it. He's basically painting corners out there like prime Greg Maddux, but obviously no one is talking about it because he's a punter.

That matters because it lowers the chances Mims provides the random explosive return that suddenly gives Denver's struggling offense the spark it hasn't been generating on its own.

Broncos punter Jeremy Crawshaw gets there in a different way.

He kicks it lower and longer, but he's still been one of the best punters at preventing returns and has allowed the second-lowest yards per return, largely because he angles kicks out of bounds at the highest rate in the league. You can't return the punt if it's landing out of bounds.

So in a game where I expect both offenses to be conservative and struggle, we also have two elite punt returners potentially getting taken out of the equation by two punters who are specifically great at preventing returns.

It's a weird angle, but those are exactly the types of little things I'm looking for when betting a low total.

I like the full-game under too, but 1H Under 20.5 is the cleaner play for me.

Give me the sluggish starts, conservative playcalling, two good defenses and the punter masterclass we could see on TNF.

Pick: First Half Under 20.5 (-115)

Seahawks vs Broncos Props

AJ Barner Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-113; FanDuel)

Barner has only cleared this in one of five games this season, but I think this is a sneaky buy-low spot.

The Broncos are usually a man-heavy defense, but with Patrick Surtain and Riley Moss out last week they shifted more toward zone and used two-high/MOFO (middle of the field open) at a 66% rate, second-highest in the league. I'm expecting a fairly similar approach with Surtain and Hufanga out.

That matters because Barner's target rate is 6% higher against two-high/MOFO. And his usage with Sam Darnold has been much better than the early season numbers suggest.

With Drew Lock handling most of Weeks 1-2, Barner had just a 9% target rate. In Weeks 3-5 with Darnold, that's jumped to 22%, and against two-high/MOFO specifically, he's been at 24% — only 2% behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

I expect Denver to devote plenty of attention to Smith-Njigba, which could leave Barner with even more room underneath. Alex Singleton has been targeted 27 times in coverage — most among LBs — so there's a pretty obvious matchup path.

Barner is coming off a season-high 81% routes run rate and has caught just 60% of his targets this year after typically being closer to 76%, so there's some positive catch-rate regression to factor in.

After adjusting for all of that, I have his median closer to 28 yards with around a 59% chance to clear 23.5. And this is one where I think the projection may still be a little too conservative because I was pretty careful with each individual adjustment.

The path to upside is better than the final 28 yard median projection probably makes it look.

Seahawks vs Broncos Trends for TNF

Seahawks vs Broncos Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming

Location:	Empower Field at Mile High
Date:	Thursday, Oct. 15
Time:	8:15 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming Options:	Prime Video

Seahawks vs Broncos Inactives

Seahawks
Chaz Surratt
Drake Thomas
Avery Smith
Robert Henry
Montorie Foster Jr.
Brandon Pili
Jalen Milroe (3rd QB)

Inactives via Seahawks PR

Broncos
Patrick Surtain II
Sam Ehlinger (3rd QB)
Talanoa Hufanga
Kage Casey
Dallen Bentley
Jordan Jackson
Tyler Onyedim

Inactives via Broncos on X

Seahawks vs Broncos Weather

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